Milwaukee Brewers Jonathan Lucroy: 2016 Fantasy Outlook

As we inch towards pitchers and catchers reporting, we can start to evaluate the landscape of each fantasy position as most of the major player deals and signings have been made. One of the most discussed fantasy baseball positions is easily the catcher spot, where drafters usually look at targeting the position in two varying ways.

While the discussion usually starts and ends with Buster Posey, drafters need not to forget about Jonathan Lucroy. Whom, when healthy, can challenge Posey as the best all-around catcher in the game. Lucroy recently sent the baseball media into a buzz with his comments regarding his situation with the Brewers in 2016. The Brewers are clearly not going to be good this season, and he made it no secret that he would welcome a move.

For those of us outside of Milwaukee, who may have forgotten Lucroy after an injury ravaged 2015, he burst onto the scene in 2013 as one of the rare catcher blends that flashed solid power and a plus average. He followed his breakout, .280/18 HR/82 RBI/9 SB/.795 OPS, campaign in 2013 with another solid season in 2014 in which he posted a, .301/13 HR/69 RBI/4 SB/.837 OPS. After two solid lines offensive lines, especially coming from the C spot, he looked poised to be the second best catcher selected behind Posey in 2015.

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Unfortunately, Lucroy could never get out of the gates as he battled a hamstring injury in the spring which derailed the beginning of the regular season and then had to battle through a toe injury in April as well. He missed all of May, but did recover over the rest of the season to show the same skill set that showed during his breakout in years prior. If we discount his injury derailed April and May, Lucroy would not post an AVG lower than .262 for the rest of the season and posted at least a .670+ OPS over that same time.

While the power only spiked with four in August, the rest of his batted ball data showed to be aligned with his career norms. While he did lose about 240 AB last season compared to 2014, he was able to keep his LD% at 26%, posted a 50.3 Med%, and a 35 Hard%. While he may be more around averaging 15 homers per season, this batted ball data points to his efficient line drive approach and why he was able to lead the league in doubles in 2014.

Another positive sign that Lucroy can bounce back, is the fact that he showed once again last season that he can pepper the ball to all fields. In 2013 and 2014, he was able to pull the ball, go up the middle, and to opposite field at a 30%+ rate. He showed that same ability again in 2015, which encourages me that his approach and skill at the plate has not diminished any due to his injuries.

While Posey clearly deserves the number one nod thanks to his track record, Lucroy has a similar skill set that can catapult him into the same tier where Posey sits thanks to their comparable batted ball data. I do think that Posey is the better bet for power year in and year out, but Lucroy should be able to compete in all other counting stats.

Now with Miller Park being a hitter’s paradise and the Brewers having a decent middle of the lineup, there may be a little fantasy hit if he were dealt to a less favorable ballpark. He splits both home and away are pretty identical, so that qualm should be looked at as nothing more than nitpick heading forward.

With the catcher position being one of the thinnest positions in fantasy as usual, it still can be a spot where there is a distinct advantage of owning a player with the caliber of a Lucroy or Posey. The bonus with Lucroy is that this season is the perfect opportunity to buy low on him and get him a discounted rate.

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In my opinion he deserves to be the second catcher taken at drafts, even though Kyle Schwarber is enticing, but last season was injury derailed and owners should not forget that he played in over 145+ games in both 2013 and 2014. Given his track record and skill, Lucroy still deserves to be a high value target this season, so do not be afraid to take the chance at getting him at a reduced cost in 2016.

2016 Early Projections: .290/17 HR/80 RBI/5 SB/.800 OPS/65 R

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