Chicago White Sox Brett Lawrie: Value Pick in 2016?

Brett Lawrie has been a fantasy enigma since he debuted in 2011. He was widely drummed up as one of the best prospects in baseball thanks in part the potential dynamic skillset he brought from the third base position. But, the story of his career so far, has been the mere fact that he could not stay on the field.

Each passing season owners would select him with the hopes that they would be able to snag him when he finally broke out. That year where he seems to out it all together still does not seem to have come yet, even though last season was his best season of his career. However, fantasy owners have long lost patience with him and for the most part Lawrie was waiver wire fodder last season.

So, has the once enticing potential fantasy star earned the right to be drafted again in 2016? In my opinion, yes, thanks to Lawrie having a few encouraging signs going for him heading into next season. His biggest fantasy asset is that he will qualify for second base this season, allowing him to be eligible at third and as a MI. That in itself is one of the key reasons why even though many fantasy owners have sworn off Lawrie for good thanks to his disappointments, the value is hard to overlook.

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Outside of his eligibility, he will also have the benefit of moving out of Oakland and its cavernous O.co Coliseum, into the more friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago. Lawrie set a career high in homers last season with 16, but only six came in the Coliseum. As we have seen with Josh Donaldson, the benefits of moving out of Oakland can be immediately seen.

Lawrie’s best career season occurred for the large part because he was able to play in a career high 149 games. Now of course being on the field allows one to build on their counting stats, but to see him stay healthy for majority of a season is a pleasant surprise. Lawire even said before the 2015 season started, that he would be better off health wise, thanks to getting off the turf in Toronto.

So hopefully that remains to be true, because he has the chance to build even more on his production last season with the White Sox. Let us first get his fantasy blemishes, injuries notwithstanding, out of the way. It is hard to foresee him being much of an AVG asset even though he was able to hit .260 last season and has hit .273 in the past.

His K increased and his BB decreased, which is never a welcome sight, but you should not be looking at Lawrie for AVG anyway. There is also the fact that he has really slowed down on the base paths over the last two seasons only attempting seven steals. It seems as though the once potential 20HR/20SB threat, has abandoned the run game in order to preserve his health.

From a positive outlook, Lawrie is one of the rare last round power options at the MI position. His power uptick likely stemmed from his LD rate climbing to 18.5%, which is the second highest of his career and the highest it has been since 2012. While his LD rate is nothing to write home about, to see it increase during a healthy campaign, should warrant some optimism that he will be able to continue to improve it going forward.

It is also encouraging that his medium level of contact rate jumped back in line to what it was, in the mid-50%, during his breakout seasons in Toronto. In Chicago, if Lawrie were to just remain consistent with his contact rates that he showed in 2015, he will easily flirt with 20 homers again, and that does not even to take into account him being able to improve on any ratios.

While he seems like he has been around forever, Lawrie is still only 26, so we are in the midst of whatever version of his prime he will be able produce. I would love to see him get closer to the top of the order and bat in front of Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier, but as it looks right now, he looks to be batting in the lower half of the order.

Even though the White Sox offense struggled last season, it is not like Lawrie is leaving an offensive juggernaut in Oakland, so his counting stats should see a boost, especially RBI wise. Lawrie is not the player he was once hyped to be and I know fantasy owners are going to scoff at trying to roster him again in 2016, but his skillset coming from the MI spot is a welcome risk worth taking in the latter half of drafts this spring.

Next: Kevin Kiermaier: OF Sleeper in 2016?

Do not expect the world, but pounce of the opportunity to have a potential offensive advantage at a notoriously weak fantasy position. A better hitter’s ballpark, supporting cast and repeatable contact rates, warrant enough optimism to take another chance on Lawrie in 2016.

2016 Early Projections: .260/20 HR/65 RBI/5 SB/70 R/.725 OPS