Tampa Bay Rays/Colorado Rockies Trade: Fantasy Fallout

By Brad Kelly | Jan 28, 2016

Apr 12, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies left fielder Corey Dickerson (6) singles in the second inning against the Chicago Cubs at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports /

After what has seemed like weeks of trade chatter surrounding the Colorado Rockies, they have finally dealt an outfielder. They decided to deal Corey Dickerson to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake McGee and another pitching prospect. On the surface this seems as a pretty fair deal with the Rays acquiring a cheap and controllable outfielder with upside and the Rockies finally bringing in a bona fide relief ace.

It is a little puzzling that the Rockies did not demand an immediate potential starter in return from the pitching laden Rays, but they still did not make out to bad in acquiring someone as established as McGee is. From a fantasy perspective, there are multiple moving parts here and there have been some shifts of fantasy value for players on both teams.

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It we first look at this trade from the Rockies perspective, they have been in desperate need of any type of decent pitching for years. As usual the Rockies still sport a solid lineup and will score their fair share of runs, so even though the starting pitching does not inspire optimism, there will be save opportunities to be had.

McGee looked to be entering the season as the Rays top set up man, so his fantasy value was limited to either leagues that reward holds or as a closer handcuff. Due to the Coors Field effect, most pitchers can be prone to blowups in Colorado, but McGee has the arsenal and skill to override his settings and become a decent mid-tire closer this season.

Since 2012, McGee has emerged as one of the betters relievers in baseball, and has been especially effective the last two seasons posting no higher than a 2.41 ERA over that span. He was slowed in the beginning of the year by the removal of a bone spur in his elbow and during the season by a knee injury. But, he continued to show his dominance whilst posting another season of an above 11 SO/9.

He does not walk batters and throws consistent strikes, but his biggest skill set is that he has shown the ability to elicit ground balls at a 40% career rate and has a minuscule 2% HR rate over 259 career innings. With his mid-90s velocity and pitching ability, he seems to be near the bottom half of the second tier of relievers in 2016 and should be targeted in the latter half of drafts this spring.

The trade gets more intriguing on the Rays side of things as they are banking on the Dickerson to somehow buck the trend that ex-Rockies hitters are nothing more than a product of Coors Field. While he is, 26, Dickerson is only entering his fourth year in the majors. He has certainly shown flashes during his three-year tenure in Colorado, but how it translates to Tampa will be interesting to witness.

Dickerson broke out in 2014 after posting a, .312/24 HR/76 RBI/.931 OPS line. He was a popular pick last season thanks to his power upside, but his 2015 season was derailed due to his battle with plantar fasciitis. Like we have seen with Albert Pujols recently, this injury is one of the worse you can try to play through in sports as it merely makes walking a tall task to carry out.

If Dickerson would have remained with the Rockies, he was shaping up to be a prime bounce back player in 2016, but the move to Tampa seems to have dampened that optimism. So while there is the argument that he will now come cheaper at the draft than even before the deal was made, there are still some lingering concerns of what his value van be next season.

The obvious concern pundits will discuss is the difference in production that Dickerson has on the road compared to at home. His, .249/15 HR/46 RBI/.695 OPS road stat line, is a far cry from his monstrous, .355/24 HR/78 RBI/1.085 OPS line at Coors. The disparity is clear and the Coors Effect argument nearly always has the statistical merit to back it up.

Coors certainly helps hitters, but the one area that may hurt Dickerson’s value the most are his splits against lefties. He has destroyed righties, .313/35 HR/.934 OPS, but his .246/4 HR/.677 OPS stat line against lefties, has me wondering if the Rays may use him in a platoon role next season. Especially considering they have a plethora of OF options, including someone like the right-handed hitting Steven Souza who the Rays will look to get at bats too.

Even though there are some big red flags attached to Dickerson, it is not impossible to imagine him having a great season in 2016. Even with his severe foot injury last season, he hit 10 homers, which would have all left Tropicana as well, so his power seems legit. He also has shown a steady LD rate that has been close to 30% his entire career, so if we combine that with his below 40% career GB rate, his batted ball data is actually pretty encouraging.

At the end of the day, drafters should target Dickerson as a low-end OF3 or a high-end OF4. If owners can snag him in the latter half of the draft after a building a solid outfield base, Dickerson would be a great flier because of the sheer power upside. I would not expect stats like he produced in 2014, because it remains to be seen if his power can play effectively outside of Colorado, but it still seems that he is still at least worth a draft day selection to find out.

Jake McGee 2016 Projections: 30 SV/2.80 ERA/95 K

Corey Dickerson 2016 Projections: .260/18 HR/70 RBI/5 SB/.780 OPS

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