There are some familiar fantasy names in this deal, but the deal really centers on Jean Segura. Aaron Hill has certainly been a fantasy mainstay for a while, but he has not been fantasy relevant for the last few years. Chase Anderson showed flashes last season as well, yet seems to be more of a mid-season waiver wire addition than a draft pick.
Looking at this from the Diamondbacks view, this should go a long way in solidifying the middle of their infield as they continue to really go for it all this season. Segura broke out in 2013 and became one of the best fantasy SS after posting a, .294/12 HR/44 SB/.752 OPS line.
Unfortunately for Segura, he has been unable to get back to that level of production over the last two seasons. The crux of his issues are hard to pinpoint, since Segura’s batted ball data has been consistent the seasons that have followed his breakout in 2013. But, his stats continue to suffer regardless.
The only real distinguishable reason that Segura has struggled the last two seasons is that he simply is not making enough solid contact at the rates that he showed during his breakout year. In 2013, Segura had a miniscule 16.7% soft contact rate compared to his 54% medium contact rate and 28.9% hard contact rate.
While his medium contact rates have stayed close to 54%, his soft contact rate has been over 25% the last two seasons and his hard rates dropped to 21.1% in 2014 and fell to 19.7% last season. Not to mention that his LD rate fell to a career low 16.7% last season as well, nearly 2% lower than 2013 and 2014.
Those are not exactly stats that would lead fantasy owners or fans in general to believe that he will rebound to the level that he showed three years ago, but Segura still brings 20+ steals and decent counting stats from the thin SS position. His struggles last season could be tracked to his nagging thumb injury that he fought all season. He suffered the injury in May and for the most part played all season with it. Segura has shown that he can stay on the field though as he has played 140+ games the last three years.
His 44 steals were the main source of his fantasy value in 2013, which was buoyed by his .329 OBP. Now as his OBP has steadily declined the last two seasons, his steal totals have suffered to the point where he is now more of a 20 SB threat, rather than a 40 SB player.
Heading into next season Segura’s value seems to be at an all-time low thanks to his struggles the last two seasons. It looks as though that he will man second base with the D’Backs, and will remain a draftable option amongst MI thanks to the market being so thin and the production he can still offers even though after the regression.
If he can stay atop Arizona’s lineup, he should have plenty of chances at continually build his counting stats in a deep D’Backs lineup. Arizona, like Milwaukee, is a hitter’s ballpark so his 5-10 homer power should not be effected by the move. Take him in the latter rounds of the draft with the hope that he can possibly offer a .260/30 SB/80 R line from your MI spot.
The Brewers are clearly in the midst of a rebuild, so dumping Segura comes as no surprise and will probably not be the last player they move in efforts to acquire prospects. From the pieces they acquired in this deal, shortstop prospect Isan Dian may probably the best player in the package, but he remains a few years away from the majors.
Aaron Hill will probably play in more of a utility role around the infield and should not be on fantasy owner’s radar for 2016. Chase Anderson profiles as more of a backend of the rotation arm, as he does not feature an overpowering arsenal. But, he does eat innings and does not walk to0 many, so it would not be surprising to see him become a waiver wire add during the season if he gets on hot stretch.
The one player that was not involved in the deal, yet is the most directly benefited, is stud Brewers shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia. Arcia will not crack the big league club out of spring due to efforts in delaying his free agency, but he will quickly become a popular pickup when he gets the eventual call in 2016.
He was recently ranked as one of the top 10 best prospects in all of baseball after a great 2015 campaign in AA where he posted a, .307/8 HR/69 RBI/25 SB/.800 OPS line. He will only be 21 next season and has not played an inning in AAA yet, but his talent is evident and the Brewers will certainly look for him to unseat Jonathan Villar from their everyday shortstop duties in 2016. Keep Arcia’s name in the back of your head this season.
2016 Jean Segura Projections: .260 AVG/6 HR/50 RBI/25 SB/80 R/.700 OPS