Nikola Jokic Should Be “In the Conversation”
When I put out my mid-season top thirty based on Player Tracking Plus Minus (PT-PM) on Thursday the ninth best player in the per 40 minutes measure was the one that fit the, “Player Number Nine Will Surprise You,” click tease. Denver rookie and former number 41st over all draft pick Nikola Jokic was rated as a strong net positive on both offense and defense rating him as a top ten overall player based on estimated efficiency.
Predraft, my model pegged Jokic as the fourth best prospect in the draft based on his ability to fill the box score, the competition level at which he was doing so, and his relatively young age. Then in his Euro-stash year before coming to the NBA Jokic took another step forward. Anytime I “discover” a prospect with my draft model I have to remind myself not to become an evangelist for them. For unheralded big men I repeat the names “DeJuan Blair, Nick Fazekas, Patrick O’Brien DeJaun Blair, Nick Fazekas, Patrick O’Brien” over an over to myself as a reminder how fallible my (or really any) draft model can be. Hopefully, this also prevents me from shutting out new information that might contradict my original finding.
But while Jokic leads rookies in PT-PM per 40 by a wide margin, his lead in other measures using PT-PM is more narrow, due to his more modest playing time so far. As I have noted before, playing time is a significant indicator of a player’s value, though hardly a perfect one (And I expect Nuggets coach Mike Malone will be playing Jokic for longer stretches going forward).
The table below has the top ten rookies sorted by Points Over Replacement Player (PORP) in descending order, it also includes the playing time regressed PT-PM estimate that is particularly useful for rookies who often are not yet playing many minutes[1. Full rookie chart is below, most rookies are below average:
].
When it comes to rookie of the year right now there are only two players “in the conversation” Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis, the numbers one and four overall picks. Both players are certainly worthy of being discussed. In addition to coming in second and third in PORP, both have produced significantly better per game numbers than Jokic. These topline stats tend to decide these kinds of awards, and Jokic trails largely due to playing time. Towns has averaged 16.5 points and almost ten rebounds per game for Porzingis it is 13.6 points and 9.6 rebounds. Meanwhile, Jokic is playing just under 20 minutes a game[2. Again something that may should change as the season goes on], averaging 9.5 points and just under 6 boards per game, per Basketball Reference. In the per 36 minutes numbers scoring is much closer, Jokic still has lower rebound numbers, though higher steals and assists, but SportVU data classifies a much higher percentage of Jokic’s rebounds as contested by the opposing team, which the PT-PM model considers much more valuable.
The chart below has the broad breakdowns I use to compare PT-PM ratings, scoring, rebounds, distribution, rim protection and defensive possessions[3. Each group is calculated the same way as the model, so scoring subtracts for the number of shots or free throws and gives a boost for catch and shoot points, distribution uses points generated by assist, minus turn overs and adjusts for assists per pass, rebounding weights contested shots more heavily, rm protection uses percentage allowed adjusted for attempts at the rim defended and shooting fouls committed, and defensive possessions considers steals, offensive fouls drawn and turnovers excluding offensive fouls committed].
Jokic is above average for the league in all of the categories considered except Distribution, but a 20 year old rookie center being essentially league average in Distribution is a big accomplishment. Jokic is approximately even with Towns in Scoring and Rebounding and Rim Protection and leads in him in Defensive Possessions.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis have had a great first half to their rookie years. Towns, especially looks like a future star in the NBA. Both of the lottery pick big men deserve to be “in the conversation” in terms of rookie of the year, but so does Denver’s second round 20 year old, Nikola Jokic.