Last Fall, Kansas fans on Twitter launched a movement designed to encourage the NCAA Eligibility Center to grant clearance to freshman Cheick Diallo. The movement, which focused on the hashtag #FreeDiallo, came to a close early in the morning on Nov. 25 as Kansas head coach Bill Self received word that his prized recruit had been granted eligibility.
The idea of a social media campaign designed to get a player on the floor is not a new one for Jayhawk fans. Last season, #FreeCliff became a rallying cry for many supporters who were critical of Self’s decision not to play then freshman Cliff Alexander significant minutes. Alexander, another five-star recruit, struggled to stay on the floor for Self as criticisms of his “motor” found their way into the public space.
While Diallo’s motor runs just fine — he is one of the most active big men in the country — the Mali native, like Alexander, has failed to find consistent playing time in Lawrence. Diallo has played only 155 minutes this season and started just one game. To put that in perspective, fellow freshman and struggling Kentucky big Skal Labissiere has played 403 minutes, while Utah’s Jakob Poeltl has been on the floor for 678 minutes this season.
Diallo’s lack of playing time has been more understandable than Alexander’s largely because Kansas has received increased production from its other bigs this season. Without much time on the court, Diallo’s draft stock has tanked in part because he is more of an unknown quantity than other prospects. There are obvious deficiencies keeping him on the bench, too.
Those deficiencies primarily start with his awareness. Having first played basketball in 2010, Diallo is still very much a raw talent and his lack of polish is often reflected in the decisions he makes on the floor. Offensively, he has yet to develop the bevy of post moves necessary to make himself an effective threat on the low block. A 6-9 forward, Diallo’s offensive game is best suited for a system that allows him to be a rim runner off of the pick and roll while helping him get up and down the floor in transition where his motor can shine.
Currently, though, Diallo struggles to play within a system. He has a relatively high usage rate (21.2 percent) for a player with his skill set largely because he often chooses to shoot rather than pass (Diallo has assisted on 1.2 percent of makes when he’s been on the floor). Compounding that problem, Diallo is often left settling for 2-point jumpers because he lacks the ability to advance his position either with a post move or off the dribble.
According to Hoop-Math, Diallo has made 46 percent of his 2-point jump shots, but with just a 28 attempt sample size it’s tough to draw too many conclusions. What’s concerning is that 60 percent of his field goal attempts have been 2-point jumpers and that nothing suggests he should be making 46 percent of them. Diallo’s jumper isn’t smooth like Labissiere’s. His release point is high, but the jumper has a bit of a hitch and is often taken fading away from the basket.
For Diallo to be more successful on the offensive end, he needs to spend more time at the rim where he’s shooting 74 percent. As an undeveloped prospect, he is at his best simple finding space where he can receive passes from teammates. When combined with his propensity to run the floor, he can create separation from defenders and end up with easy looks at the bucket.
Diallo’s high motor and his physical traits, specifically his 7-4 wingspan, make him more likely to have an impact on the defensive end. Diallo has collected 25 percent of available defensive rebounds when he’s been on the floor. His length and athleticism make it possible for him to retrieve rebounds even against taller opponents. Those characteristics also make him a powerful rim protector. Diallo has a block rate of 9.5 percent, a percentage similar to Louisville’s Chinanu Onuaku. Diallo has a good feel for where the ball is going on drives and that allows him to be an effective help defender, as well as a decent one-on-one defender.
The problem on defensive end also relates to Diallo’s awareness. When the ball comes into the paint, he has a habit of tracking it to find a block even if a block is unlikely. The result is often an offensive rebound for the Jayhawks’ opponent, which comes with an easy putback.
This ball watching habit can also result in losing his defender. Against Oklahoma State, Diallo switched onto forward Leyton Hammonds. Hammonds isn’t a great 3-point shooter, but he’s attempted 86 of them this season and all it took was a simple dive into the post to lose Diallo.
Diallo’s high intensity is certainly a valuable skill. He plays the game harder than just about any other prospect in the class, but in order for him to become an effective NBA player, he needs to marry his effort with more refined skill. With his head coach trimming his rotation, it seems unlikely that Diallo will find any sort of consistent role for Kansas this season, which means less time to develop during in-game action.
And yet, Diallo should still probably enter the 2016 NBA Draft.
Here’s the thing about the decision Diallo will face at the end of this season: Returning to school for an NBA prospect with a high upside but very little time on the court is a potential disaster waiting to happen. If he returns for his sophomore season and doesn’t show sufficient growth, his draft stock (along with the size of his contract) will fall considerably more than it already has. If Diallo returns and begins to develop into the type of player that he was expected to be as a five-star recruit coming out of high school, then sure, he’ll earn a bit more money, but his draft ceiling is probably a late lottery pick at this point. So, while it has been the NCAA and Bill Self keeping him from the floor, it will now be up to Diallo to free himself. The risk of returning is too high and the reward too low for a prospect still considered a first round pick.