Pittsburgh Pirates: 2016 Fantasy Preview

N.L. Central

Pittsburgh Pirates

Must Own Fantasy Player: Andrew McCutchen

Potential Fantasy Bust: Francisco Cervelli

Prospect to Watch: Tyler Glasnow

The Pittsburgh Pirates had their season fall victim to a blistering Cubs ballclub that had everything working. With the top half of the division even better than before, do the Pirates have what it takes it to capture another N.L. Central crown?

It seems as though that there is a question within the fantasy community, is Andrew McCutchen beginning some sort of decline? In some early mocks, Cutch has even fell into the early third round, which is admittedly baffling. Last season he ended the season with a, .292/23 HR/96 RBI/11 SB/.889 OPS/91 R line.

Clearly that is a solid season, but maybe not the full five category production that owners were looking for from a first round pick. But, keep in mind that he battled nagging injuries all season and really should not have even been playing the first month of 2015. Point being, he is not beginning a decline, and this season will probably be the only time owners will not have to spend a first round pick on him.

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He is better than the 11 SB output that he had last year, and owners can be rest assured that he will swipe 20 bags in 2016, because the offense will need every aspect of his dynamic skill set in order to keep up in the division. The key to the Pirates offense will rest in the outfield group that includes Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte.

Marte is certainly trending up and the midst of his prime, so really all he needs to do is continue the outputs he has been producing. Marte should been targeted within the first three rounds of the draft thanks to his terrific stat floor, and potential 25 HR/30 SB upside. Polanco on the other hand, may be the key to Pirates season.

Polanco had a decent season in 2015, but it seems as though he still has a lot more fantasy potential. The .256 AVG and 121 K are worrisome, but the 9 HR and 27 SB, serve as a glimpse of the skill set he can bring. Hopefully he can parlay his second half success, into a breakout performance in 2016 as the team needs another source of offensive production in order to contend.

The Pirates infield will look different from years past, and franchise mainstays Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker have been sent packing. Josh Harrison looks to man second base and he followed his breakout 2014 season with a subpar 2015, which was further plagued by a thumb injury, making him a late round flier in 2016.

One revelation for the team last season, was the emergence of infielder Jung-ho Kang. Kang’s power transitioned well after coming from Korea, and he was not shabby in the field either. Unfortunately, a take-out slide ended his season and his recovery from a broken leg, puts the beginning of his 2016 season in jeopardy. Amazingly enough, he has already began taking grounders and may be ready for the start pf the season. But either way, his production last season showed drafters enough the he can be selected this spring and stashed in case he misses some early time.

Jordy Mercer can be ignored at shortstop after a rough 2015, and somehow the Pirates have not solved their revolving door at first base. John Jaso, Michael Morse, and Sean Rodriguez look to all battle it out at first, making the position easy to ignore as it will probably take all spring to figure out who may be the starter.

The Pirates desperately needed to find a catcher after the departure of Russell Marin and it looks as though they have found a solid option in, Francisco Cervelli. He was always a gamer with the Yankees, but was never going to be given the starting job in the Bronx. He also routinely battled injuries with New York, but he managed to avoid the injury bug and had a great season in 2015.

Now I know that Cervelli will not be a player that owners are fighting each other over this spring, but his fantasy expectations in 2016 should be tempered. Cervelli’s value is solely tied to his AVG, which is a hard category to replicate continually. Drafters may need to target Cervelli as nothing more than a last round catcher flier, minimizing the .290+ AVG that owners will be chasing.

Moving to the rotation, the Buccos have a formidable two-headed tandem with Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. Cole was dominant last season, and emerged as one of the best pitchers in the league. All signs point to him being able to replicate his success and there is even room growth, making him a premium target this spring.

Liriano is an interesting case. He was basically left for dead in 2012 after miserable stints with the Twins and White Sox. But, thanks to the Ray Searage effect, Liriano has come back to fantasy relevance the last three seasons. His K finally pushed past the 200 mark last season, and his devastating slider has one of the highest chase rates in baseball. Owners may be scared off by his perceived wildness, but he has found a home and success in Pittsburgh, so make him a solid SP2 target.

The other three spots in the rotation should probably be avoided. Jon Niese has had solid success in the majors, but with his capped upside and the pitching pool being so deep this season, there are just more enticing options via the draft. Ryan Vogelsong and Jeff Locke have been serviceable when healthy as well, but neither warrant fantasy consideration heading into 2016.

The Pirates bullpen should continue to be one the best in the league spearheaded by the league leader in Saves, Mark Melancon. Melancon is a top 10 closer, but lacks the big K numbers that the top tier options have. For those in Holds leagues, both Tony Watson and Arquimedes Caminero are great contributors.

Next: Miami Marlins Closer Competition: Who Comes Out on Top?

Pittsburgh’s farm system is loaded with potential, which is why they routinely rank amongst the best farms in baseball. With the back of the rotation lacking high upside options, a prospect to watch will be Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow had a breakout minor league campaign in 2015, and looks to be on the verge of making his debut because his stuff is pro ready.

The Pirates have plenty of talent to contend in the division, but will need their young players to step up and emerge in order to make up for the production the team lost this offseason. The central will be a dogfight all season, but the Pirates will certainly have their say in the race’s outcome.

Looking for more team previews?

NL West: L.A. Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, New York Mets

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds

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