Los Angeles Dodgers Joc Pederson: All Power, No Contact

The young Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson had some good numbers and some bad numbers in 2015. Can he pull it together and become a top outfielder in 2016?

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the one of the top two teams in the National League West. While they lost star players, some to division rivals, the team still has a good foundation. One of those players had a good 2015 season on most fronts, but could improve in the other areas. Joc Pederson still has some growing to do, but could be a nice sleeper pick in 2016. 

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Pederson was one of the top prospects in the league, but he disappointed fantasy owners in 2015. I wrote a projections article for him last season. I projected 20 home runs, 65 RBI, .243 average and a 20th round ADP. He was an 18th-round pick with 26 home runs, 54 RBI and .210 average in 151 games. He finished 71st among outfielders and 340th overall on the Player Rater.

The negative to owning Joc Pederson last year was the high strikeout total and low batting average. He had a 29.1 strikeout rate, 170 strikeouts, in 2015. His 26 home runs accounted for 25.7 percent of his total hits. He did have 92 walks, which helped with his .346 on-base percentage.

Digging deeper, Pederson’s ground ball rate was 41.8 percent while his fly ball rate was 42.4 percent. He did make good contact throughout the season with a 20.4 soft hit and 42.4 medium hit rates. His 37.3 hard hit rate was good for 16th in the league, according to Fangraphs.

Joc Pederson was one of the two headache hitters to own from the Dodgers, the other being Yasiel Puig. The latter was more difficult to own, at least you knew what you were getting with Pederson. He is very selective at the pitches he swings at which is evident by his 43.0 swing percentage and a 14.0 swinging strike percentage. When he does swing, it’s either a home run or an out. That’s not the kind of hitter you want to spend a mid-draft pick on.

Dodger Stadium was not looked at as a hitter’s park. The stadium ranked 22nd in hits, 16th in home runs and 23rd in runs. While he hit 13 home runs both at home and on the road, Pederson had more runs and hits and a higher batting average away from Dodger Stadium. He may be one of those players you start on the road and bench when he’s at home.

Next: Pittsburgh Pirates 2016 Fantasy Preview

Joc Pederson is a one-stat fantasy hitter. He’ll get you home runs. He doesn’t make much contact, steal or drive runs in. Some fantasy websites rank Pederson as a top-150 player, but I see him around 180th. He’s outside my top-50 outfielders as of now. If he can improve his batting average and become an all-around hitter, he could move up.

Projections: 114 hits, 22 home runs, 75 RBI, .235 average

Draft: Round 18