Potholes In Golden State’s Road to 73

Forty-eight and four. Seriously.

Obviously, this is not breaking news – but the Golden State Warriors are really good at basketball, and may be on the cusp of history. While it’s tempting (and logical) to focus on the “48” and all the goodness that has come with it (as many have and should), let’s take a look at the 4. Specifically, let’s compare those four losses to the ten losses of the legendary 1995-1996 seventy-two and ten Chicago Bulls. Right, I get it – four games is not exactly a lot to work with. But if we are able to glean even the slightest bit of pattern out of those four games, maybe – just maybe – it could lend some insight into this team.

This chart, using data courtesy of basketball-reference, looks at some of the schedule-based commonalities for both teams’ losses. Why schedule-based stuff? Two reasons. First, these could serve as good pre-game indicators. There’s probably great correlations to shooting percentages in losses vs. wins, but the game has started by then and it’s already too late. Unless you’re watching every Warriors game (a plan I’ve previously advocated), you’ve got to prioritize. Second, if you’ve been following my articles this season (no excuses – I can count them all on one hand), I’ve been focused on the fan experience. Whether it’s a team’s freshness, or maximizing your $199 donation to the NBA, I’ve been interested in finding the most-bestest matchups to watch. The schedule is fun to analyze.

So, when we compare these teams from this perspective, it turns out there’s really about one similarity: most (or all) of their Ls come on the road. Not a shocker, but important. As for differences, the Warriors’ losses have been closer to together, by more points, and on fewer days rest, to worse teams on less rest. Wait, what? The Bulls had multiple 6+ game winning streaks that season, the Warriors have had one colossal one so far. On average, the Bulls were losing close games; the Warriors are losing by 10+ points…to worse teams. The average winning percentage of Bulls’ victorious opponents (at the time of each game) was above .500. The Warriors’ opponents are a bit of a mixed bag – two above and two below .500. As for rest, the Bulls were losing on games with 1-2 days rest (same for there opponents), while the Warriors are losing on 0-1 days rest (same for their opponents).

What does this mean? Assuming everything stays the same (which is inherently dangerous, but hey let’s give it a shot), and using some of the lessons from Chicago we can apply four rules to the rest of the schedule and find potholes in Golden State’s lawn: some games that may have enough of these environmental conditions to facilitate a loss.

1. Road warriors. Will Golden State go undefeated at home? I don’t know, but the safe money is on them usually winning at Oracle.
2. No sleep ’til…Little to no rest – either back-to-backs or 1-day rest games.
3. “Meh” opponents. That’s not a fair description, but we’re looking for opponents that will have (roughly) a 0.35-0.65 winning percentage when the Dubs roll into town.
4. Rest! Opposing teams should generally have at least 1 day of rest between games.

Armed with these rules, where are the potential landmines in the rest of Golden State’s schedule?

With 30 games left to play, the Dubs have to win 25 of them. I would argue that these nine pose the greatest risk to the Warriors’ path to 73 wins. These nine games really organize into 4 clusters:

1. Right now! These February games coming out of the All-Star break are a meat-grinder for Golden State. This road trip – starting in L.A., ripping through the Southeast, and then over to Oklahoma – is not pretty. I’m most intrigued by the Orlando game; it has all the makings of a trap. It’s the day after playing the Heat, and the Thunder are right around the corner.
2. Mid-March. A match-up against Dallas, who beat them earlier this season. Dallas is better than most people expected, and fighting for a playoff spot. And Golden State plays San Antonio the next night.
3. Late March. The Jazz are tough, fighting for a playoff spot, had that dust-up in December with the Warriors, and it’s the second night of a back-to-back for Golden State.
4. Mid-April. As the season winds down, and the win record potentially in their cross-hairs, this Grizzlies-Spurs back-to-back is oh-so dangerous. It’s hard to say where the Grizzlies will be in the standings, or how much rest the Spurs starters will get, so his could easily go 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2, none of which would surprise me (how’s that for hedging?!). Consider this: if Pop is willing to double/triple team Paul George to prevent an All-Star Game scoring record, this will be Golden State’s second-to-last game of the season. If they have 8, 9, or 10 losses by then (unfathomable, yes, but possible), does San Antonio go HAM?

Are there other dangerous games from now until April? Sure, arguably all of them. These are just some of the highlights.

Mark your calendars.