Nylon Notebook: Trade Deadline Recap

Hope were high and rumors were flying, but the big deal never really materialized at this year’s trade deadline. Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, Ryan Anderson were all big names bandied about who all ended up staying put. Basketball Twitter seemed plenty frustration with the lack of action, but we were probably spoiled somewhat by the chaos last season. If we look at the combined Wins Over Replacement Players[1. Calculated using Box Plus-Minus based VORP] of all players moved at the last four deadlines this actually wasn’t that bad.

The majority of deals at the deadline often involve fodder, marginally negative players moved to facilitate financial strategies or to fill out the very back end of rotations. Often the sum of those slightly negative players can basically cancel out the one or two big names who get moved. The deadline in 2014 was particularly depressing, with the most notable deal there being Lavoy Allen and Evan Turner headed to the Indiana Pacers for a hobbled Danny Granger.

This WORP calculation may not even reflect the total impact of what was moved this year. Donatas Motiejunas and Markieff Morris were too of the more intriguing players headed to new homes and both have had their production suppressed this season for reasons physical and behavioral, respectively. If eitheror both of those players delivers on potential this deadline could be remembered differently. But it almost certainly won’t live up to last year’s circus.

Jeff Green is not the wing you’re looking for

Jeff Green was one of the (theoretically) most-impactful players moved this week. A versatile wing who can defend threes and fours while helping space the floor on offense, something that the perennially thin Los Angeles Clippers’ bench could desperately use. The problem is, he’s carried that reputation for years without ever really delivering on it. Green is a career 34 percent three-point shooter, although he’s just slightly under that at 33.3 percent over the past three seasons. Over nearly 20,000 career minutes for three different organizations, his team’s offenses have been, on average, about 1.9 point per 100 possessions worse on offense and 4.7 point per 100 possessions worse on defense when he’s on the floor.

Green’s impact is also extremely situational. According to the position estimates at Nylon Calculus, Green’s minutes were roughly split between power forward and small forward this season. We can use DRE, a box-score based estimate of net impact, to see how he fared at each position. As a power forward this season he’s been worth about 0.9 points per 100 possessions and the Grizzlies were -0.6 per 48 minutes. When he played small forward, his DRE dropped to -2.3 and the Grizzlies were -2.2 per 48 minutes.

Green is certainly versatile but the problem is that he’s average or just below in most of these areas that are slotted under his umbrella of versatility. He can defend wings, but not very well and his shooting isn’t good enough to hold out spacing when he plays on the wing. As a power forward his shooting is slightly more of a positive but he’s still, at best, a roughly average contributor there. Assuming Blake Griffin comes back healthy, minutes for Green are mostly going to come on the wing, which doesn’t bode well for the long-term outcome here.

Donatas Motiejunas can do a lot of things

One of the other big pieces moved at the deadline was Donatas Motiejunas, who was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Detroit Pistons. Motiejunas has been struggling with back problems and played just 188 minutes for Houston this season. He’s also a restricted free agent and was likely going to ask more than Houston was willing to pay. But assuming Detroit can get him healthy and afford to keep him around, there is no question about his talent.

Last season, Motiejunas was one of just 24 players to finish at least 100 possessions on post-ups, spot-ups, and as the screener in the pick-and-roll. Bigs who can function in all three sets are incredibly valuable, indicated by some of the other names on the list — Chris Bosh, Kevin Love, The Gasols, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dirk Nowitzki. The graph below shows that group, charted by their points per possession in each set (the size of each player’s mark reflects their points per possession as the screener in a pick-and-roll).

Simply being included in this talented group of bigs speaks to how much versatility is in Motiejunas’ game. He was one of the most effective post-up players in the league last season and more than respectable as a spot-up threat. The fact that he hasn’t been great in the pick-and-roll is somewhat less problematic in Detroit, assuming he’s there beyond the rest of this season, because most of their pick-and-roll actions are going to feature Andre Drummond. Still, Motiejunas’ ability to spot-up around those sets, or work in the post with Drummond lurking the baseline, open up a world of possibilities for Detroit. Now if they can just get him on the floor consistently.