Chicago Cubs Dexter Fowler: Fantasy Fallout

Update

Dexter Fowler and the O’s failed to finalize his deal, and he has now decided to resign with the Cubs. His fantasy value appears to be similar to what he did in 2015, as he should be the starting center fielder. In terms of the information below, the optimism is still legitimate, besides the added power benefit that Camden Yards would have offered, but he is still joining a great lineup.

Well it is about time.

After an MLB offseason where some of the best free agents struggled to find jobs, Dexter Fowler finally got paid and is heading to his home in Charm City. He had a career year with the Cubs in 2015 posting a, .254 AVG/17 HR/46 RBI/20 SB/.757 OPS line. So, what does the move to Baltimore do for his fantasy value in 2016?

Fowler will shift to right field for the O’s next season, but should still remain at the top of the one of the best batting orders in the MLB. There was some concern that Fowler’s potential new home may not offer as good of a surrounding cast that the Cubs would have, but those worries were silenced with the move to Baltimore. He should get a nice counting stat boost from hitting in front of the likes of Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Chris Davis.

There is then the debate on whether or not Fowler’s breakout last season is legit. It certainly helps that Fowler played in a career high 156 games last season, but there was also a change in his approach at the plate that ushered in his power surge. Like clockwork, Fowler had drawn about 65 walks per season leading into last season. However in 2015, his bumped up his walks to 84. That patience allowed him to get into better counts at the plate, which translated into seeing better pitches to hit. That skill set will play well once again in Baltimore, as Camden Yards and the other American League ballparks, should offer him even more opportunities to improve his power numbers.

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If we dig deeper into his contact rates, Fowler began to pull more balls in 2016 than in years prior. He does not have to battle a shift or anything, so his power improvement can be correlated to the fact that he was taking advantage of the smaller parts of the ballpark. So with Camden playing as one of the smallest ballparks in the league both in right and left field, he looks perfectly able to maintain this new approach next season. It is also important to note that he lowered his soft contact (Soft%) by over 3%, and raised his Med% by nearly 5%. Further showing just how well Folwer was able to make solid contact throughout the season and why his .254 AVG is due for an increase.

Thanks in part to him being healthy for majority of the season, his 20 steals were a welcome addition to his game. Hopefully, Buck Showalter keeps giving him the green light on the base paths, because his potential 20 HR/20 SB ability is rarely found anymore. Everything about this move screams fantasy upside, and it seems like fantasy owners are still hesitant to buy into his success last season because of his prior disappointments. Fowler is still being undervalued in drafts early this spring, so he keeps shaping up as a nice high upside mid-round selection.

Next: Los Angeles Angels 2016 Fantasy Preview

This all hinges on the hope that he does not have a paper cut or hang nail that will cause him to fail his physical, but hopefully the O’s doctors looks the other way on this one. 2016 Early Projections: .260 AVG/18 HR/50 RBI/20 SB/100 R/.760 OPS

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