2016 NCAA Tournament:Â West Region predictions
The brackets are out! You know what that means. Everyone is scouring the internet and TV trying to get any advantage they can. The NCAA tournament turns normal people into hardcore gamblers for three weeks.
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So here I am, doing my part to try and give you some insight. If you follow my advice, you will either look like a genius or an idiot. In March, there is no in-between. My best advice is to gather as much information as you can and follow your gut!
Here are my picks for the Midwest Region, for this weekend and beyond!
(1)Oregon(12-3 vs. the field, 15th NCAA Tournament appearance)Â vs. (16)Holy Cross(1-1 vs. the field, 13th NCAA Tournament appearance)Â at Spokane, WA:
Before you go thinking Oregon doesn’t deserve this seed, they beat Utah, a three seed, three times by a combined 59 points. They also took out Big 12 heavyweight Baylor. They belong.
Oregon won the very first NCAA Tournament back in 1939. That was also the last time they made it past the Sweet Sixteen.They are looking to change that.
Holy Cross won their first tournament game since 1953 tonight, but their reward is to get bulldozed by Oregon. The Crusaders lost to Kansas by 33 earlier this year. This may be even worse. The Crusaders were also the first 19 loss team to win a tournament game since 1955. The 1955 Bradley team won two games in that tournament. Sorry, Holy Cross fans, it wont happen here.
Pick: Oregon
(8)St. Joseph’s(5-2 vs. the field, 20th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (9)Cincinnati(4-7 vs. the field, 30th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Spokane, WA:
St Joseph’s ran through the Atlantic Ten tournament and was rewarded with an eight seed for their efforts. DeAndre Bembry is a really good player, and this team just doesn’t beat themselves. They don’t turn the ball over or make many mistakes
That is exactly what Cincinnati will try to make them do. The Bearcats are built on pressure defense and hope to get enough offense to win. That will be tough against a calculated team like St. Joseph’s.
Pick: St Joseph’s
(5)Baylor(7-11 vs. the field, 10th NCAA Tournament appearance)Â vs. (12)Yale(0-2 vs. the field, 4th NCAA Tournament appearance)Â at Providence, RI:
Baylor is much like they were last year. They are a big, physical team led by Ricardo Gathers in the middle. The Bears are making their third straight NCAA tournament appearance for the first time in school history, and are trying to erase the memory of Georgia State’s buzzer beater that knocked them out in the first round last year.
Yale is back in the tournament for the first time since 1962. Fortunately for them, they get a game really close to New Haven, so they will definitely have the crowd on their side. Yale’s problem is that they are undersized, and Baylor is motivated to win this after last year’s early exit.
Pick: Baylor
(4)Duke(6-8 vs. the field, 40th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (13)UNC-Wilmington(0-0 vs. the field, 5th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Providence, RI:
Duke is essentially running a six man rotation since Amile Jefferson broke his foot in December. That is an ominous sign against a team that presses like Wilmington does. They press so much they would make Bob Huggins or Nolan Richardson proud.
For Duke, this looks a lot like the Mercer and Lehigh teams that have ousted them unceremoniously within the last decade. Grayson Allen in a great player, but he sometimes does more harm than good.
Wilmington will need to force turnovers and keep the Blue Devils out of the middle. With the absence of Jefferson, that is possible. Even if Duke survives this, they don’t look like a team built to make a long tournament run.
Pick: UNC-Wilmington
(6)Texas(8-10 vs. the field, 33rd NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (11)Northern Iowa(4-2 vs. the field, 8th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Oklahoma City, OK:
Texas got a break here getting to play just up I-35 in Oklahoma City. The Longhorns are big and tough, which is not good for undersized Northern Iowa. Texas played a staggering 18 games against NCAA Tournament teams. They are battle tested and tough.
Northern Iowa is no slouch. Like Texas, they also beat North Carolina earlier in the year, and they also notched a win against Iowa State back in December. They can hang with anyone because of their defense.
The Panthers will have to try to attack the middle and slow Texas down. Can they accomplish both? I have my doubts.
Pick: Texas
(3)Texas A&M(8-3 vs. the field, 13th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (14)Green Bay(0-1 vs. the field, 5th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Oklahoma City, OK
Texas A&M has some talent on this team. Freshman Tyler Davis is a load down low, and Danuel House and Jalen Jones are capable leaders. They have a lot of firepower, but they will likely need it.
Green Bay averages the shortest time per possession in the tournament. The Phoenix are back in the tourney for the first time since 1996, and have a puncher’s chance at winning this game. The Aggies are prone to foul trouble, and with the Phoenix taking so many shots, that could be magnified. Still, it’s hard to ignore the sheer potential of A&M here.
Pick: Texas A&M
(7)Oregon State(7-7 vs. the field, 14th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (10)Virginia Commonwealth(3-5 vs. the field, 15th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Oklahoma City, OK:
Oregon State is making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 26 years. 26 years ago, the elder Gary Payton led the Beavers to the 1990 tournament, but they didn’t get to the second weekend. The younger Gary Payton will try to succeed where dad wasn’t able to.
VCU is an athletic team that defends well. They are also ball hawks. They force you into mistakes, then turn those into easy points.
Oregon State is definitely the most tested team, and VCU will have trouble with Gary Payton, Jr., but will it be enough for the Rams to win. It may. I love their athleticism.
Pick: VCUÂ
(2)Oklahoma(11-6 vs. the field, 30th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (15)UC-Bakersfield(0-1 vs. the field, 1st NCAA Tournament appearance) at Oklahoma City, OK
The Sooners are one of the more electric teams in the field, and have the potential to go all the way to Houston. Led by the nation’s leading scorer, Buddy Hield, this team can, and does, shoot from anywhere on the floor. That said, they are one cold-shooting night away from being sent home if facing a good team. I don’t think it will matter against a Bakersfield team making their first ever tournament appearance, but it could later on.
Oklahoma and their fans have to be ecstatic with their draw. They have one of the easier roads to Houston, with the physical Aggies the only team that poses a huge threat. Can they take advantage?
Pick: Oklahoma
First round winners: Oregon, St. Joseph’s, Baylor, UNC-Wilmington, Texas, Texas A&M, VCU, Oklahoma
Second round winners: Oregon, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Sweet Sixteen winners: Oregon, Oklahoma
Regional Champion:Â Oklahoma. Now for the caveat: This is from an Oklahoma fan, so take it with a grain of salt. I tried to remain impartial!
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