NCAA Tournament March Madness Live Blog, Day 1

It’s March Madness and our draft experts will be live blogging the NCAA Tournament games all day, with a little help from around the HP Basketball Network. Send us your thoughts and questions on Twitter or Facebook.

8:23 — Blocks and Threes and Isaiah Whitehead — Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)

Perhaps no player in enters this tournament as hot as Seton Hall’s Isaiah Whitehead. He averaged 23.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in the Big East Tournament. He also came up with 14 three-pointers and five blocks in the three games. Whitehead can certainly fill up a stat sheet but the blocks and threes make him extremely unique. The graph below shows all 561 D-1 players from this season with at least 10 blocks and 10 three-pointers.

His plot, on the outer fringe of this group makes him an incredible outlier — there are simply aren’t that many players who can deter shots at the basket and knock them down from the outside the way he does. There’s just one more twist, Whitehead is not a stretch big. He’s a 6-4 shooting guard.

Whitehead is just a sophomore and doesn’t appear on the latest Upside and Motor Big Board or Draftexpress Mock Draft. Seton Hall plays in the late game tonight against Gonzaga and another strong performance from Whitehead could catapult him to national prominence. Regardless, he presents intriguing potential as wing with versatility at both ends of the floor.

8:12 — The End for A.J. Hammons –Brendon Kleen (@BrendonKleen14)

It’s unfortunate that today was A.J. Hammons’ last collegiate basketball competition, because it showed us exactly what is so enticing about him as a prospect. His six blocks were a more impressive display of awareness than most of the film on him can show (the block on Little Rock’s driving long-haired big late in the game was a beautiful example of patience in rim protection). He scored well when given the opportunity, but failed to affect the offense otherwise. Granted, a lot of that is the simple system Purdue runs that clutters the half-court far too much for him to fully thrive. However, he uses his ability to shoot far too little; there are many instances in which he could optimize his abilities by popping out from his crouched post-up stance. He rarely does.

Also unfortunate is that he was unable to get to this point before his senior season. He will need to hope that a team sees him as a project worth investing in and work hard in his first couple years to get NBA-ready. He is not that yet, but a 16-15-3-6 showing to give up a great fight as his coach threw the game away was as impressive as anything he’s done in four years at Purdue.

8:01 (back after a long lag) — The Georges and Monte Show — Brendon Kleen (@BrendonKleen14)

This feels like the best iteration of Steve Prohm’s Iowa State Cyclones that we’ve seen. Sure, Melvin Ejim had some exhilarating moments, but the third-ranked offense in the country has a chance this year to make some legitimate March noise. That’s largely because of the work put in by the prior iterations of the team that helped Iowa State nab a solid prospect in Monte Morris. He is the little engine that pulls the entire train along. Somewhere between the physical stature of Ty Lawson and Dennis Schroeder, Morris plays an in-control style that completely maximizes the gifts of those around him.

Luckily for Cyclone fans around the country (how many of those are there, really…?) one of the pieces of those prior versions of the roster is still around, and he has plenty of gifts to be maximized. Georges Niang played 37 minutes in today’s battle with Iona. He kept Firebreather A.J. English and a high-powered Iona squad at bay throughout the game, turning an inefficient day into a 11-23 showing after a dazzling second half. While Niang has a decent handle and can run the offense in a pinch or as the ball handler in secondary action, he has benefitted tremendously from Morris’ presence this year.

What if these players need each other (or versions of each other) to succeed at the next level?

Very few prospects come pre-packaged as all-around contributors, but to already know what kind of roster a player might need in place in order to succeed feels dangerous. Morris is a point guard, and will always be looked to for ball distribution and playmaking, but what if that’s his ceiling? Can he succeed if he’s asked to create consistently for himself? He’s a junior. These questions should be heading toward their resolutions already. He seems like he’ll be a decent lead guard in some capacity, but his size already makes you worry about his defense; can he really be relied upon on an NBA roster without a dominant scoring ability?

Niang is even more concerning considering that he’s a Senior. If he’s made an NBA roster come the fall, he’ll have done it on the back of several games just like the one he had himself today. Any questions about Morris’ defense are embarrassed giggles compared to the roar of concern about Niang’s. He has developed his shooting stroke and uses his body well to finish in traffic and has always rebounded well (a total rebound percentage around 15 percent in each of his four seasons at ISU). Handling an increased scoring burden with Ejim and others gone this year has gone well. But without a guy like Morris around to set him up perfectly, can he succeed wherever his professional career takes him?

3:10 — Welcome to the Club — Scott Rafferty (@crabdribbles)

It wasn’t his best performance of the season, but Grayson Allen became the fifth person since 2010 to put up 20 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in an NCAA Tournament game. He joins Marc Eddy Norelia, DeAndre Kane, Marcus Smart and Draymond Green as the only players to do it. That’s not bad company for him to be in.

2:10 — Who to Watch — Jeff Feyerer (@Jfey5)

There is a dizzying amount of statistics and rankings available to help someone decipher what team will succeed in March, but one of the strongest variables for success over the course of an entire NCAA Tournament is the level of pro talent on a team. Just look at last year’s Final Four where each team had at least two NBA prospects and there were 16 total.

I am absolutely guilty of focusing too much on the numbers at various points in my tournament preparation, but a few years ago, in an effort to provide myself another layer of analysis, I integrated my own NBA Draft prospect rankings into my evaluation.

Over the course of the NCAA regular season, I maintain a running list of draft prospects for the upcoming NBA Draft. My rankings are based on their performance during the season based on scouting and statistics in addition to pedigree (program, high school rankings). Following the season, I adjust based on a host of other variables. Those variables don’t usually stray too far from my season long evaluation.

In an attempt to visually represent my rankings, I created a traditional bracket with the pro prospects integrated into it to get a sense of where the NBA talent lies.

Here is last year’s bracket along with 2015 NBA Draft Picks (with their pick #) and 2016 NBA Draft prospects.

Here is this year’s bracket with the Top 75 playing in the tournament. (I have Ben Simmons No. 2, but he is not listed and Jakob Poeltl has been bumped up to No. 2).

​I don’t recommend using this graphic to select the early games, but instead, as a reference in identifying NBA talent and teams that can make deep runs into the tournament.

The South and East — Kansas, Maryland, California, North Carolina, Kentucky just to name a few — are loaded with NBA talent while the West and Midwest are lagging behind.

1:51 — Peak Plumlee — Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)

Duke is back out to a commanding lead, in large part because of the energetic performance of Marshall Plumlee. the 4-5 pick-and-roll between him and Ingram has been a devastating weapon as Wilmington’s rotations just can’t handle his size. Plumlee is a fringe prospect at best, he didn’t even make the the latest Upside and Motor Big Board and Draftexpress has him ranked just No. 56 in the senior class, not even among all prospects. However, by the numbers he doesn’t look that bad when compared to his brothers.

He may not hear his name called on draft night, but he’s certainly going to have an argument for the big piece of chicken at family dinners.

1: 49 — Yes, Another Plumlee — Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg)

I’ve been half watching this Duke vs UNC Wilmington game while working, and I just heard the broadcast crew: “Plumlee, yes, another freaking Plumlee, is getting his chance and playing well.” (They may not have said that verbatim). I look up immediately. There are three steps to realizing there’s another Plumlee. Shock, curiosity and “of course.” Plumlee grabbed an offensive rebound and scored. Then went on to score six points in three minutes and help open Duke’s lead from four to 12 points. Plumlee is making his mark, and his case to join his brothers in the NBA and confuse fans for years to come.

1:17 — Where Have All the Prospects Gone? — Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck)

Obviously, we have a whole half of basketball still to be played and they’re only down three (Ed Note: 538 gives Duke a 69 percent chance of winning) but it would really be something if the presumed top two picks in this upcoming draft (Ingram and Ben Simmions) either didn’t make the tournament or got knocked out in the first game. Is there any precedent there?

Even in a year where Michael Olowokandi went No. 1, you had Mike Bibby at No. 2 who took Arizona to a regional final. Even in years when guys came out of high school — LeBron in 2003, for example — you had Carmelo Anthony leading Syracuse to a National Championship at No. 2, or in the case of international guys (Bargs, Yao Ming) they were followed by LaMarcus Aldridge and Jay Williams, each of whom played deep into March. The year Mercer knocked off Duke is as close as we’ve come.

1:02 — Numbers versus the Eye-test — Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)

Building on what Austin was highlight about Grayson Allen, he’s one of the players that draft models and scouts seem to differ on most dramatically. Allen improved dramatically this season and his statistical resume reflects it — he played nearly four times as many minutes as he did during his freshman year. His true shooting percentage jumped from 58.3 percent to 61.4 percent and his Box Plus-Minus went from +5.6 to an eye-popping +10.2.

Allen ranked as the seventh-best prospect in the first pass of Nick Restifo’s draft model a dramatic difference from Draftexpress, who at the time of that post had Allen outside the first round of the NBA draft, slotted at No. 34.

What Allen has done as a college player (this first half notwithstanding) is incredibly impressive. The question is how much of his offensive efficiency can be translated to the NBA.

12:55 — The Weaknesses of Grayson Allen — Austin Peters (@apete1993)

Grayson Allen’s weaknesses are showing up in this game. UNC-Wilmington is giving full court pressure all game, and it is rushing Allen into making bad decisions. He is currently 1-5 here in the first half and most of those shots are contested, wild drives. He plays hard, which is something that scouts always like, but it gets him into trouble at times when he decides to bury his head and take on the world, like he has already several times in this game. He doesn’t seem to know how to slow the game down and make a play, something that is really showing up with UNC-Wilmington’s press. A press is designed to speed up the other team and force them to make bad decisions, and that’s exactly what it’s doing to Grayson Allen.

12:50 — Tyrone Wallace Goes Down — Daniel Rowell (@DanielJRowell)

We have our first injury of the tournament. Tyrone Wallace, the Cal Bear’s starting senior guard, fractured a bone in his right hand during practice, according to reports from Shams Charania of The Vertical. He is not expected to play in today’s opening round match-up with Hawaii and his status for the tournament is questionable. The good news is it was his non-shooting hand, the bad news is No. 4 seed Cal will lose Wallace’s 15.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.4 assists. Cal’s play from Wallace, paired with the freshmen forwards Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb had been disappointing, finishing fourth in the Pac-12. It will be difficult for the freshmen duo to advance in the tournament without the leadership and ball handling from Wallace.

The NCAA tournament is an exciting opportunity for veteran players like Wallace to make their case for the NBA draft, and this injury comes at an unfortunate not for his team, but also his draft stock. According to DraftExpress.com, Wallace is projected as the 60th-best prospect for the 2016 draft, 17th among senior players. The 6-6 point guard  has a unique combination of scoring, ball handling, and length, but will have a difficult time staying in the draft conversation from the bench. It’s especially disheartening given his projected early second round draft stock last year. Hopefully the NCAA rule changes on eligibility, allowing players to declare for the draft without risking eligibility, will prevent these kinds of stories in the future.

12:10 — The Brandon Ingram Show — Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)

Brandon Ingram is one of the best draft prospects in this class (currently second in the latest Upside & Motor Mock Draft and Big Board) and also happens to be featured in the first game of the day. Ingram is a long athletic forward with elite potential at both ends of the floor. He’s on a short list of college players over the past few years who have shot better than 40.0 percent on three-pointers and had a block percentage of at least 3.0 percent (minimum 1,000 minutes played and 50 three-point attempts).

The first run of Nick Restifo’s draft model at Nylon Calculus also ranked Ingram as the second best player in the class, although the margin between Ben Simmons and Ingram was nearly twice as large as the gap between Ingram and the third-ranked player in the class, Jakob Poeltl.

11:50 — Welcome to the Madness — Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)

We’re really excited about this live blogging experiment and apologize for any rockiness in structure or execution. As we wait for the games to begin. Here are a few things from around the HP Network to keep you busy.

Our own Austin Peters (@apeter1993) and Chris Stone (@cstonehoops) have been alternating Mock Drafts at FanSided. Austin is up this week and he still has Ben Simmons at No. 1. You can also check out Austin and Chris’ latest Big Board, with links to our scouting reports for all prospects.

Yesterday at Hardwood Paroxysm, Bryan Gibberman (@gibberman10) talked with Jonathan Tjarks (@JonathanTjarks) about the tournament and which draft prospects to pay attention to. Our staff at Upside and Motor also went region by region highlighting the best prospects in each:

• South
• West
• East
• Midwest

If you like some statistics with your college basketball experience, Nylon Calculus has plenty to offer. Max Schimanski (@schimax) has tournament projections and Peter Nygaard (@RetepAdam) has some details on how non-conference strength of schedule can help identify potential upsets.