New York Yankees Michael Pineda: Value Pick in 2016

Michael Pineda burst onto the MLB scence in 2011, showcasing an overpowering arsenal. But, after injuries have derailed his early career momentum, could 2016 be the year he breaks out for the New York Yankees?

Michael Pineda’s debut in 2011 was a sight to behold as the mammoth, 6-foot-seven righty, carved his way through hitters with ease. He earned an all-star bid his rookie season and everything looked as though he was poised to step in behind Felix Hernandez for the foreseeable future.

He was sent to the New York Yankees in 2012 for Jesus Montero, but his tenure with the Yanks would be halted before it even began. Pineda went down with a shoulder injury after battling ineffectiveness and the injury wound up eventually costing him both the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

He finally returned in 2014, showing the same flashes of dominance that he showed early in his career, but once again shoulder problems sidelined him. Last offseason was the first healthy one he had since 2011 and what we saw was him taking another step in returning to his all-star form.

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Fantasy owners will see his 4.37 ERA and question just how good he actually was, but under that ugly ERA, lie terrific peripherals. Pineda started 27 games last season, and tossed 160 innings, his highest total in four seasons. He did have the unfortunate pine tar incident and battled forearm tightness, but when he was on the mound, he offered fantasy owners great production.

The first skill that Pineda has been able to refine over the years has been his excellent command. Over his 160+ innings, he only walked 21 batters and posted a miniscule 1.2 BB/9. He is so much in the strike zone, it gets him in trouble at times as he did surrender 176 hits last season.

Fantasy owners should always gravitate towards the pitchers that have excellent command over wild throwers, so in terms of him rebounding, his command is a clear asset rather than liability. The Yankees infield did not do many favors either with Chase Headley struggling defensively all season, and the revolving door at second, so his 3.34 FIP/3.09 SIERA are true indicators of just how well he pitched last season.

His 8.7 K/9 in 2015 is only a slight drop from his breakout season in 2011 where he posted a 9.1 K/9. Pineda featured more of a cutter/slider/change up last season mix which is a slight change from 2011, where he threw more fourseamers than cutters. Before his shoulder injury, his fastball velocity sat easily in the mid-90s, but last season he was more in the 93-94 range with his cutter.

The cutter clearly generates more movement than his fastball did, so he is better off with it, but if his velocity could start to creep back in the mid-90s, it would become an even better of a pitch. Hitters whiffed on his slider and change up nearly 20% of the time, allowing him to minimize the damage in the rigors of the A.L. East. The more encouraging marker in his batted ball data, was that he had a 48% GB rate and only a 30% FB rate, a skill set that allows him to excel in the bandbox he finds himself in.

The injury risk is always going to be there with pitchers, but even more with guys that have prior shoulder issues. What to like though, is that this offseason served as another healthy off-season for him and this spring we have seen the results.

From all reports so far, Pineda showed up day one of camp and has looked the part of the workhorse that the Yanks hope he can be. So far this spring he has posted a, 1.00 ERA/11 K/0.89 WHIP over his three outings. Spring stats can be useless, but what is more impressive, is that he was clocked recently throwing 96-99 mph with his cutter/fastball. Add a slider sitting in the mid-80s and a change up coming in at anywhere 77-85 mph, and what we have is the same type of pitch mix we saw from him in 2011.

It is early on in spring and the velocity will surely dip some as we get into the season, but to see him sitting at the velocity for the first time in years, is a key part into thinking that he is on the cusp of posting a solid fantasy season.

In terms of him being a value pick, he is being taken around the 40^th SP overall. Starters such as Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmermann, and Justin Verlander are being taken over him, so it is clear that he can provide value with only a mid-level investment. The upside is potentially SP2 numbers, but his floor should have him comfortably producing at a SP3 level.

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Owners will be scared off of him thanks to the injury history and unsightly ERA last season. But, astute owners will swoop and take advantage of him being undervalued as all signs point to him being able to reestablish himself as one of the more electric arms in the game.

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