The Rise of Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield isn’t your typical NBA Lottery Pick.

He stands at only 6’4’’, below average for an NBA 2-guard, and doesn’t have the McDonald’s All-American pedigree that is commonplace among those selected high in the one-and-done era. More unique, is that he is now concluding a fourth year in college, a rarity along the lines of a Kawhi Leonard smile as there have only fourteen seniors selected in the lottery of the previous ten drafts.

But based on early draft projections, the top of the draft is where he’ll end up.

Barring any detrimental discoveries during the draft vetting process, he will become the first senior shooting guard selected in the lottery since 2006, when two players fitting that description – Brandon Roy and JJ Redick* – entered the Association. In fact, in the last ten NBA Drafts, only eight other upperclassmen shooting guards have been selected.

Hield’s in-season rise to the top of draft boards has coincided with his otherworldly improvement on what was already a stellar resume. Considered a borderline first round pick prior to the 2015 NBA Draft, the defending Big XII Player of the Year returned to school and laid waste to the conference from a statistical standpoint having one of the most impressive and efficient offensive seasons in recent memory.

Based on stats taken from KenPom.com, the below chart shows all eight upperclassmen lottery shooting guards since 2006 and their progression within the context of percentage of team shots taken and true shooting percentage from their penultimate to their final season. Hield’s drastic improvement is clearly seen.

All but one of the players listed (Victor Oladipo) increased the percentage of team shots they took in their last season. Much of this has to do with the natural attrition that goes hand in hand with college roster construction where as players depart, those beneath them are handed a bigger piece of the glory (if no freshman replacement exists) and a new role.

But what most jumps out to me are the similar trajectories of Klay Thompson and Hield. They were the only two players in the data set who already saw at least 30% of their team’s shots in the previous season. That’s two full seasons of knowing the ball is going to be in their hands more than anyone else on their team, which has to count for something.

At Washington State, Thompson got lost a tad in the national discussion because of the lack of talent surrounding him, yet he was able to improve his TS% in his junior season despite more defensive attention and more shots. Hield took that improvement to the next level. Where Thompson improved his TS% from 54% to 57.4%, Hield’s jumped from 54.5% to 66.3%. The talent surrounding him at Oklahoma was significantly better and the continuity involved with three other starters returning helped, but they weren’t the determining factors.

What has led to the increased efficiency in Hield’s game as been his ability to get to the line.

For the last three years, his three-point attempt rate has remained almost the same. However, what has changed has been the rate at which he gets to the line, up to 34.4% this season from just 19.1% two years ago. Hield’s improvement isn’t because he started taking and making more threes, but instead because he realized the importance of creating more off the dribble, in transition and attacking the basket. This in turn increases his NBA draft stock because being pigeonholed as “just a shooter” doesn’t normally coincide with a high selection, though the growing importance of the three-pointer in today’s game may say otherwise.

To look at this shift and try to gauge any sliver of meaning it may have with regard to his NBA prospects, I expanded the data set from just the eight upperclassmen lottery shooting guards the last eight years to include every true shooting guard with at least two years of college playing experience from the last 20 drafts (1996). Shown below are the changes in both their three-point attempt rate and free throw rate between their penultimate year of college and their final season. Highlighted in red is Hield and in blue are those shooting guards that eventually made an NBA All-Star Game.

I understand these numbers won’t tell how successful the players are once they get to the line or beyond the three-point stripe, but a willingness to attack the basket more does seem to hint at a developmental marker for NBA success. Of the eight NBA All-Stars listed, five improved their free throw rate in their final season while the other three saw an increase or decrease of less than 1%. And no, it’s not lost on me that Dion Waiters and Rashad McCants are hovering there trying to firebomb my theory.

There is no “silver bullet” statistic that will ultimately determine Hield’s success at the pro level as concerns about his game remain. Will he create enough for teammates? Will he be able to defend NBA wings? What we do know about Hield is that, as Hubie Brown would say, he can flat out score the basketball. The above information was simply presented to show that a shift in how Hield gets his points has led to a more efficient player, a more self-aware player and ultimately a player that appears more attractive to NBA scouts.

*Randy Foye not included due to classification as a PG during this rookie season