Toronto Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez: Breakout Candidate?

Aaron Sanchez has regularly been considered one of the Toronto Blue Jays best pitching prospects, but so far he has failed to excel as a starter. But, after adding weight in the offseason and with brilliant success so far this spring, could 2016 be his best chance to break out?

Aaron Sanchez simply looks the part of a MLB ace, standing in at 6-foot-4 and weighing in at over 200 pounds. It also helps that he is an absolute flamethrower, averaging over 95 MPH with his fastball last season, combined with a nasty curveball. Even with all those things going for him though, he was brutal last season during his stints as a starter. So, why should fantasy owners still be interested in him heading into 2016?

The simple answer is that, Sanchez has arguably the highest upside on the staff and that includes Marcus Stroman. His fastball can overpower batters by itself, but Sanchez clearly needed work developing his curveball and a third pitch. This offseason he paired up with Stroman and carried out an offseason training program that would allow Sanchez to add 25 pounds of muscle, with the hopes that it would help his stamina and balance out his delivery.

The program clearly worked as Sanchez entered camp looking physically different and his spring showings have been tremendous. Unlike most starters who ease back into things, especially velocity wise, Sanchez’s arm looks to be in mid-season form as his fastball has not skipped a beat.

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When he started 11 games last season, he ran into a multitude of issues. For one, his command was dreadful as his wiry frame hardly ever allowed him to repeat the same release point. He also struggled to get lefties out and his fastball, which usually happens during a transition to the rotation, dropped nearly three mph. His struggles forced the team to send him down last season, but he did make a name for himself in the bullpen.

The hopes for his fantasy value hinge of his pure stuff, spring results, and the hopeful benefits of his offseason regimen, will parlay itself into consistency. His peripherals weren’t terrible last season, 61% GB rate, 21% FB rate and 17% LD rate, are all reasonable numbers but it will come down to his command.

This spring he has posted a, 1.98 ERA/15 K/1.02 WHIP/3 BB line, over 13 innings pitched. I know that spring stats are generally useless, but to see his command sharp right of the gates is encouraging. With drafts quickly approaching, these are the types of interesting players that fantasy owners have to evaluate closely, because their possible breakout could lead to fantasy glory.

Sanchez wants to start and he has seen the success that Stroman has brought, so hopefully this is the last offseason they have him competing for a rotation spot. He can’t do much more in validating why he deserves a spot, but some Gavin Floyd character, has decided to match him pitch for pitch this spring.

Based on how he looked this spring, the improvements that he honed in on during the offseason, and the determination he has shown in securing a rotation spot, he has the all makings of a breakout player. If the Jays keep him in the pen after his dominance last season, which ironically hurts his chances at starting, he should still be picked in Holds leagues or as just a RP pick because of the K numbers he can produce over a full season.

Next: Washington Nationals Ben Revere: Undervalued in 2016

Owners will have an interesting decision with Sanchez in drafts this spring. The upside is apparent and the early results have been there. The Jays may lean towards taking a chance with Floyd, much to the fans chagrin, which clearly kills any chance of a breakout. But, I am going with the upside here and the fact that the Jays have to make a decision on his role with the team going forward. Target him as a SP 5 flier this season, and the potential he brings in the last rounds of the draft is unmatched.

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