NBA Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks March 31
NBA Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks March 31
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming NBA FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
As always, thank you for reading and continuing to provide great feedback on how Picks and Pivots can better serve you each day while building your roster. Follow me on Twitter @2lockSports and feel free to pose questions each day as you work to construct your DFS roster on FanDuel!
Looking ahead to tonight’s slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST and features 6 games, 2 of which will be nationally televised on TNT. Three teams in action tonight will be on the tail end of a back to back as the Clippers head back out to play OKC and the Nuggets and Pelicans both play after being in action Wednesday night. Now let’s get to the picks…
Next: Top Point Guard Plays
Point Guard
- Russell Westbrook ($10,600) – There are very few players where your decision to roster or fade them can single handedly decide your success in DFS, but Westbrook has proven time and again to be one of those players that more often than not delivers the big game you need. Going up against the Clippers, who will be playing on the tail end of a back to back, is a matchup we should look to exploit. In the 3 games against LAC this year, Russell is averaging 56 fantasy points. On a 6 game slate, locking in Russ feels like a must. The only caveat would be the potential for a rest game as Kevin Durant sat out last game so could this be Westbrook’s turn?
- Isaiah Thomas ($7,800) – This late in the season, simply trying to identify games where both teams have something to play for can be an effective way of avoiding the last minute “rest” scratches that wreak havoc on our lineups prior to tip off. The Celtics take on Portland in a game where both teams are fighting for playoff positioning so I expect both teams stars to come ready to play in this one. Portland presents the better matchup to opposing PG’s, specifically over the last 10 games they have been the 6th most favorable matchup to opposing PG’s. In their only matchup this season, Thomas put up 37.8 fantasy points against the Blazers, and has been averaging the same over his last 5. With so much uncertainty at this point in the DFS season, I am going to look to target this game heavily as it is expected to have one of the highest totals(opened at 215) and a minimal spread. Although I expect a solid game from Damian Lillard, he is priced $500 more than IT and has averaged 34.5 ppg over his last 5. I will opt to take the $500 savings, the better matchup and the hotter player and go with Thomas.
- Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,600) – I am going back to the well Thursday night with Mudiay as no team has given up more fantasy points to opposing point guards over the last 10 games than New Orleans. Mudiay is very volatile however Monday night the impressive rookie played 35 minutes and put up 31.7 points. Over his last 4 games he has had games of 31.7 and 47.2 but also games with 18.1 and 9.9. I am making this call before Mudiay finishes his game Wednesday night but regardless of how he performs, you simply cannot ignore the matchup here and the fact that the depleted Pelicans will be in action in back to back nights. Mudiay continues to be widely overlooked, as in Wednesday night’s GPP’s he was not over 10% owned in any tournament I entered. My hope is he continues to be overlooked and we can use him as a high upside GPP pivot.
Next: Top Shooting Guards
Shooting Guard
- James Harden ($10,900) – The more I look at this slate, the less I like the mid to upper level options and nowhere is that more true than SG. There is enough value across the slate already, and surely more will open up throughout the day to allow us to take a strong “Stars and Scrubs” approach. Similar to the narrative in the Celtics/Blazers game, the Rockets are clinging to the final playoff spot in the Western Conference so we know The Beard will be locked into major minutes in this one.
As @MattyMcMatt17 points out in his latest FanDuel Economics column, Harden is averaging 54.7 PPG over the last week which is over 25 points more than the next best SG on the slate, C.J. McCollum. Being able to get twice the points for less than twice the price, this feels like a good night to roll with Harden. I highly recommend utilizing Matt’s points when constructing your FanDuel lineups each night!
- JJ Redick/ Jamal Crawford ($4,500/$4,700) – Frankly the rest of the SG crop tonight is underwhelming, so I will look to drop down and utilize the Clippers guards. OKC presents a favorable matchup to opposing SG’s on the season, and both Reddick and Crawford have guaranteed minutes, a relatively safe floor and the ability to rack up point on any given night, so they feel like solid plays when trying to fit in the studs tonight.
Next: Top Small Forwards
Small Forward
- Kevin Durant ($10,600) – Again, I have no problem locking in the studs tonight as Durant has averaged 50+ points in the 3 meetings with the Clippers this season. If you are looking to save, you can drop down to Paul George ($8,900) who has averaged 44 points the last two games and seems to be trending upwards as the Pacers fight for a playoff spot.
- Nikola Mirotic ($5,000) – After dropping 41 points last game out after Taj Gibson left early and with a juicy matchup against the Rockets who are dead last on the season against SF, I expect Mirotic to be a very popular play on the slate. Mirotic has tremendous upside as he has two 40+ point games in his last 5 however has backed that up with 11.6, 7.8 and 18.7. Because of his volatility, I will look to pivot at my second SF position and utilize Jordan Hamilton ($3,500). Hamilton got the start for the depleted Pelicans at SG on Wednesday night and played major minutes and was heavily utilized on offense. Denver is one of the best teams on the year to target SG’s against, so I will look to fly a little under the radar, and if Hamilton gets the start again look to pivot off Mirotic and try and gain an advantage.
Next: Top Power Forward/Center
Power Forward/Center
- Ed Davis ($4,600) – Boston has struggled all year against opposing frontcourts, and Davis has averaged 26.9 ppg since March 17th, good for 5.9x value. Power Forward is ugly tonight and I expect the bargain bin to be a popular place to shop, so locking in the correct players here will be key and I think Ed Davis has the chance to be the best of the bunch
- Ian Mahinmi ($5,200) – Mahinmi has scored 30.9, 38.2 and 33 points over his last 3 games and only seen his price increase $100. For a player hitting 6x value each night and getting a favorable matchup against the Bulls, I am locking the Pacers big man into all my lineups tonight.
Next: FanDuel Economics March 31
Best of luck tonight gamers! As always keep an eye out on the late breaking news throughout the day as the season winds down and players start to take games off!