FanDuel Economics: NBA Thursday March 31st Picks
By Matt Rogers
FanDuel Economics: Thursday, March 31st Picks
Welcome to the Thursday, March 31st edition of the FanDuel Economics column. This is a daily fantasy column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
Thursday night has another great schedule of six games. As the season continues to advance toward a close, some teams are beginning to play future prospects while others are preparing for the playoffs. We continue to see expensive but valuable players take the night off. So, monitor lineups toward the beginning of each slate of games. However, a new daily dynamic to the NBA season is creating tremendous value picks each night. There are now more options to play someone who could hit 30 points or higher and is at $3,500-$6,000 salary. As I say each day, it’s important to focus on high value players because they make it easier to slip in a James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, or LeBron James into your lineup. So let’s take a look at some of our best options for tonight:
Point Guard (PG)
Earlier in the week I noticed Shane Larkin beginning to see more play time (averaging around 30 mins) and his PPG gradually climbing. Tonight, he’s hard to ignore. Shane has averaged 25.2 PPG over the last week and tonight his salary is only $3,900. To put those figures in perspective, Larkin is 23rd of the top 30 PGs in average PPG over the last seven days, but he’s the cheapest option of all 3o. So Shane allows you to spend $3,900 on 25 points giving you more money to spend on someone like Westbrook tonight (assuming he doesn’t rest).
I try not to talk about the same player too often, but I also can’t ignore the best value options each day. Elfrid Payton was one of my value picks for Tuesday and he backed me up. He was overshowed by Ish Smith, but Payton dropped 38 points, right around his weekly average, and was only $5,700 on Tuesday. Payton is $5,900 tonight but still a great value pick as he continues to give you 35-40 PPG on a less than $7,000 salary, which is always a bargain. Your next best options are Derrick Rose, Kyrie Irving, or Isiah Thomas, but you’re spending $700-1,900 more for about the same amount of points.
Shooting Guard (SG)
FanDuel Economics picks typically focus on players who are low salary but high point return. SG’s tonight do not present very many low salary/high point players. However, I did notice a twist in value perspective tonight. James Harden is obviously a great point option every night he plays. Tonight his salary drops $100 to $10,900, which is pricey. However, Harden averaged 54.7 PPG over the last week, which is 1st of all SG’s tonight. C.J. McCollum has the 2nd most PPG at 29.5, but 25.2 less than Harden. So you can pay $6,900 for McCollum and 30 points or $4,000 more and almost double that amount. One last note, the Rockets are clinging to a playoff spot so it’s unlikely they rest James anytime soon. Harden is a great value pick tonight, even at $10,900.
Speaking of C.J. McCollum, while not necessarily a great value at about 30 PPG for $6,900, he’s a much better option than Jimmy Butler or Victor Oladipo. Butler is averaging 29.4 and Oladipo is 28.7 and you’re paying $800-$1,300 more each. Pick C.J. over Jimmy or Victor. If you can go cheap elsewhere, Harden and McCollum should be a great pair of picks.
Small Forward (SF)
Al-Farouq Aminu is hot and taking advantage of more playing time (29 mins). Aminu is averaging 26.7 over the last seven days but somehow his salary only climbed to $5,000 from $4,900. If it wasn’t for a 20.7 stinker, Aminu would be averaging closer to 30 and had been trending that way before that game. He’s a great value pick for SF’s tonight.
Speaking of great $5,000 salary options, Nikola Mirotic is averaging 24.7 PPG and just landed a 40 points in his last game. Mirotic isn’t as great a value as Aminu but his trend line is starting to resemble Aminu’s a week ago. May want to consider playing Nikola tonight before his salary begins to climb, he’s often a popular pick.
Related to Mirotic, fellow FantasyCPR staff write Brian Tulloch writes about his pivot option from Nikola in his NBA Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks March 31. Take a look for another set of great FanDuel pick options tonight!
Power Forward (PF)
This one is sort of a no-brainer. Ed Davis continues to pile on points and his salary remains cheap. Davis has averaged 28.9 PPG over the last week but his salary only climbed $300 to $4,900 tonight making him a tremendous value yet again. Also, Davis is averaging almost 2 PPG over the most expensive PF option tonight Thaddeus Young. So you should avoid paying for someone as expensive as Young when you can pay $2,600 less for Davis and likely get as much or more points. Plug Ed into your lineups tonight.
I talked about Serge Ibaka before, then he took a seat that night. I’m going to give it another shot because he’s still a great value. Ibaka is averaging 28.9 PPG, same as Davis, but is more expensive at $5,500. However, like Ed Davis, Ibaka is averaging more PPG than most of the more expensive PF’s tonight so he should get a strong consideration if playing tonight.
Center (C)
A lot has been made of Omer Asik lately. But tonight take a look at Alexis Ajinca. The Pelicans’ are thin at Center lately and as their season begins to sunset, Ajinca will continue to get a lot of playing time. Alexis has averaged 24.3 PPG over the last week but his salary is only $3,900. Ajinca is the only Center in the top 20 PPG over the last week who’s that cheap. If you need a cheap center, he’s a great pick.
Next: NBA Picks And Pivots March 31
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!