NBA Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks for April 1
Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming NBA FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
As always, thank you for reading and continuing to provide great feedback on how Picks and Pivots can better serve you each day while building your roster. Follow me on Twitter @2lockSports and feel free to pose questions each day as you work to construct your DFS roster on FanDuel!
Looking ahead to tonight’s games which kicks off at 7:00PM EST and features a loaded 10 game slate including the nationally televised Warriors and Celtics, which has a total over 220 and will be a heavily targeted game across all formats. The Cavs will play the second night of a back to back against Atlanta, so while I will not look to target any of the Big 3 this early in the day, I will keep an eye on the lineups as if any of the 3 take a day off after the game against Brooklyn, I will look to pivot to the others as we know their usage spikes in that scenario. Now let’s get to the picks…
Next: Top Point Guard Plays
Point Guard
- Shelvin Mack ($6,000) – Over the last 10 games, Minnesota has given up the 2nd most points to opposing PG’s. Earlier this month, Mack had 5 straight games over 30 points, however he hit a rough patch which brought his increasing price to a halt. Last game out against Golden State, Mack put up 33.7 points, and with the Jazz fighting for a playoff spot, we can expect Mack’s minutes to be secure and return 5-6x value.
- Shane Larkin – ($3,900) – Yesterday, @MattyMcMatt17 in his Daily FanDuel Economics post NBA FanDuel Economics March 31, pointed out how Larkin is 23rd out of the top 30 PGs in average PPG over the last seven days, but he’s the cheapest option of all 30. Larkin is averaging 25 PPG over his last 5 games(excluding Thursday night) which exceeds 6x value and on Thursday even in a blowout against the Cavs was able to exceed that average. Listen, the Nets are not a good team, but they are giving Larkin a ton of run and Thursday’s game is a great reminder that the blowout risk does not apply here. The savings are tremendous, and playing on a back to back, FanDuel has not yet adjusted his price. I will target this $3,900 price knowing that it will likely rise based off Larkins new role.
- John Wall ($9,600) – The narrative with Wall is simple, his team is fighting for the playoffs and he has elite upside carrying a price under $10k. The Suns are the second most favorable matchup on the seasons to opposing PG’s so this feels like a great spot to target Wall in the hopes for a monster night.
Next: Top Shooting Guards
Shooting Guard
- Bradley Beal ($5,900) – I have watched from the sidelines as Beal has slowly regained his role and output, and has put up games of 33.8 and 38.3 over his last 4 games flashing the upside we know he is capable of. Tonight, I am attacking Phoenix’s backcourt as they present the best matchup of any team to opposing SG’s on the season. At a $5,900 price point and the matchup, this feels like a must play and a mini-stack of the Wizards backcourt will be a nice way to get exposure to this game.
- Dwayne Wade ($7,700) – Wade has had back to back monster outings averaging 47.7 points over his last two which crushes 6x value. The Kings present the 2nd best matchup to opposing SG’s on the year behind the Suns, so targeting Wade seems like a very safe play as the Heat remain locked into a playoff seeding battle in the East.
Next: Top Small Forwards
Small Forward
- Robert Covington ($6,500) – Covington’s price has increased $400, however over his last 4 games he remains locked into major minutes and is averaging 32points per game. In his last game against the same Hornets team he will face Friday, Covington put up 35.4 points. The offense continues to run through Covington, so I will look to continue to lock him in at a very reasonable price point.
- PJ Tucker ($5,100) – I expect Otto Porter at $400 more to be very popular based off his matchup with the Suns, but Porter has only exceeded 30 pts once in his last five games. I will look to the other side of this matchup as the Wizards are 24th on the year in DvP to opposing SF. Over his last 4 games, Tucker has exceeded 30 points twice. Keep in mind that the other two games Tucker put up 15 and 16 points so he has a lower floor than Porter but has demonstrated a higher ceiling.
Next: Top Power Forwards & Center
Power Forward/Center
- Willie Cauley Stein ($4,900) – His price has dropped $100 after a subpar outing last time out, but with Demarcus Cousins already ruled out due to suspension, I will gladly fire WCS back up on Friday. His last game out with Boogie on the sideline he put up 33.8 points, close to 7x value. I am hoping players will be scared off from his last down game when they simply look at the box score, but understanding the rookies role when Cousins is off the floor may give us an edge to lower than expected ownership.
- Luol Deng ($6,300) – No team has given up more points to opposing PF than the Kings and with Boogie out, I will look to attack the interior of the Kings. Deng put up a massive 46.2 outing against a similarly beneficial matchup last game out against the Lakers so I feel comfortable targeting him again tonight. Also, Deng sits at the same price as Tobias Harris and Jabari Parker so when creating multiple lineups, you have easy identical priced PF options to differentiate yourself in multi entry tournaments.
- Hassan Whiteside ($8,700) – No Boogie and a player averaging 47.3 over his last 3 games. This one is a must play for me as very few players give you the upside that Whiteside does and he reminded you of that last game out when he put up 17 boards and 7 blocks. With Cousins out and Karl Antony Towns in a tough matchup against Utah, Whiteside is the top elite center and worth paying up for with so much value on the slate.
Next: FanDuel Economics For April 1
Best of luck tonight gamers! As always keep an eye out on the late breaking news throughout the day as the season winds down and players start to take games off!