NBA Week in Review 23: Golden State Warriors chasing 73

Even with last night’s loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Golden State Warriors still have a chance at 73 wins, thanks to the restful ways of the San Antonio Spurs. They’ll have to win their last four games, including two against San Antonio. Even so, 72 wins seems fairly probable, which is remarkable. As we come to the end of the season, we have a few playoff races and this fun chase toward history. The Warriors may not break the record but the journey is worth it.

Hall of Fame Inductees

In other news, the NBA does not have its own hall of fame, so the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame will have to do: the newest members (NBA-wise) are Shaquille O’Neal, Allen Iverson, Yao Ming, and Zelmo Beaty. Shaq is a no-brainer, but the others can generate discussion. Allen Iverson is now infamous for stealing an MVP from Shaq (or Tim Duncan, arguably) to such a degree that there’s backlash against that backlash — but while there’s merit to the claim that it’s tough leading an entire team’s offense when they’re composed of defensive role players there’s a matter of degrees here and it doesn’t make you one of the best players ever. There are ways to balance usage and efficiency, and metrics like BPM or my own HBox [1. Using career MVP index, which uses HBox, Iverson rates as the 109th “best” player since 1974. That’s not a perfect number, of course, but it’s a metric that values playmaking, shot creation, and guys who get to the line without a huge penalty for inefficiency. It’s not a good sign he doesn’t rate highly.] rate him as a very good player but not MVP worthy and only borderline Hall of Fame worthy. Going further with plus-minus, he looks mediocre, rating a little above average in one 15 year model. Qualitatively, just imagine this: how would the 2001 76ers done with, say, Tracy McGrady? McGrady’s a high volume scorer too, but with his size he’d also be a surprisingly good boost to their defense. Then there are guys like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade who can take the one-man offense task with good efficiency. Not to completely denigrate Iverson, but you don’t get extra points for being small and he wasn’t at the level of a typical MVP.

Yao Ming is a more interesting case. While the value of an international career and influence are vague in this kind of voting, his NBA career left much to be desired. I don’t know if there’s been revisionist history or what, but from what I remember during Yao’s career he was never considered a truly elite player — just a popular one — and he never met his potential. Going by BPM’s career metric, he’s a lot lower than Iverson. My MVP Index rubric was designed for guys with short but spectacular careers, for instance, and he falls short there too, ranking 131st since 1974. Numbers aren’t everything, but they’re guideposts and they confirm what I remember from his career: Yao was never elite and he’s in the great hall for his off-the-court impact and his play in China, for better or worse. As for Zelmo Beaty, I’ll just quickly state that a player today with his career would definitely not make the Hall of Fame. He was, however, voted in by the veterans committee, not the North American committee that voted in Shaq and others[2. Yao Ming was voted in by the international committee.]. If you’re wondering why there are separate committees and what it means, you see my problem with the Hall of Fame.

Warriors, Wizards: A Yawn, Another Win

The Warriors beat the Wizards by a mere eight points, but I don’t think the game was ever in question. Washington whittled down the lead near the end, and Stephen Curry, of course, killed them from outside. They didn’t really play poor defense, but Golden State has so much movement that any mistake or hesitation can result in a three-pointer from Curry. For example, in this clip when Draymond Green drives, John Wall stops chasing Curry, who’s near the basket, to help cover the rim, but Curry pops out to the corner and shoots before Garrett Temple can close out. In fact, you don’t even need a dangerous screener and another threat for Curry. As seen here, Varejao sets not one but two screens where both Nene and John Wall don’t even pretend to guard him; Curry hits the three anyway.

Curry is a dangerous off-ball player too. In this play, for instance, he sets a screen for another guard, Barbosa, at the three-point line; Barbosa then sprints to the basket, and his defender stays back because Curry had him pinned. Curry’s defender, thus, chases Barbosa, but this opens up a lane for Curry because Barbosa’s defender is not between him and the rim; he’s on the other side. That leads to a layup for Curry, and it’s that kind of small action, and all their movement, that can kill even prepared defenses. You have to be quick. You have to communicate. You have to switch to close on open shots. And Stephen can still break down defenses.

Golden State Needs Overtime in Utah

As Golden State reaches transcendence, mortals are still trying to find weaknesses and design a game-plan that can consistently beat them. Since most of their potent lineups are small, it’s natural to assume going big and killing them on the boards is a decent plan. The Utah Jazz tried this last week, and in some ways it was a success. They pushed the Warriors to overtime, and they grabbed over 30 percent of all available offensive rebounds, which is the kind of rate that over a full season would almost lead the league.

For example, Draymond Green is guarding Rudy Gobert on this play, and he’s unsurprisingly unable to box-out Gobert and prevent the tip-in. Green veered inside to help guard a drive, and Gobert naturally pushed his way to the rim as well. But it’s not just the super-small lineups that struggled with rebounding. When Varejao is the sole big man in this play, Derrick Favors is able to roll to the rim and crash a miss without another Golden State player even feigning a box-out. Even Andrew Bogut got pushed around here by Favors. Relatively speaking, rebounding is a weakness for Golden State, and if they’re defeated in the playoffs this might be a primary or secondary cause. But the Jazz were unable to deliver the death-blow and steal the game last week.

Most Improved Visibility: Isaiah Thomas

Filtering through the discussions about the NBA awards, Isaiah Thomas’ name comes up often in relation to Most Improved Player but I fail to see why. His season was better than last year’s, but that’s basically just because he spent some time in the point guard swamp of Phoenix — he was arguably better in Boston last season than this one. In fact, the problem is that few people actually watched him with the Kings in 2014, his real breakout season. Looking at a few summary stats below, his efficiency and assist percentages are virtually unchanged over the past three years while his usage is right in the middle and his BPM is his best by only a hair. I know that these stats don’t see everything, but how exactly has he been better this season than the last ones besides the presence of better teammates and the recognition of an All-Star selection?

Table: Isaiah Thomas (2015 only includes his time with Boston)

Warriors Lose at Home to the Celtics

Golden State and Boston had another instant classic, and the Warriors fell at home for the first time in eons. The Spurs, actually, could still steal this undefeated home record if the Warriors don’t stop them first. The Celtics were narrowly defeated earlier in the season, so it’s natural to ask if there’s something about the team that matches up well with the Warriors. One could say it’s their pesky perimeter defense, but Marcus Smart missed the first game and Jae Crowder the second. Maybe it has something to do with their non-traditional big men, but they’re not mobile big men and they’re not adept at switching onto quick players. Most likely, the cause starts with the Warriors’ propensity for turning the ball over against Boston’s pressure, high-steal defense. However, the Warriors didn’t have the same issues last season, so perhaps I’m grasping at straws. In a seven-game series, I’m certain the Warriors would focus and decimate the Celtics. Over a couple random games during the season, we can’t draw too many conclusions.

Lillard, Curry Duel: A Slight Return

Portland and Golden State might be developing a rivalry based around the fun Curry-Damian Lillard match-up. As I have pointed out numerous times, Lillard is basically Curry-lite and his closest peer in terms of style and three-point potency. Over the past three seasons, Curry has been first in pull-up three-pointers made by a large margin, while Lillard has been second once and third twice. However, as can be seen in the graph below, Curry has no peers when it comes to his accuracy, and it separates him from guys like Lillard. It was still a fun game, but Lillard is the Clyde Drexler to Curry’s Michael Jordan, unfortunately.

As an aside, Draymond Green had his 13th triple double of the season, and through my HBox metric he’s rated fourth in the league overall. In fact, plus-minus stats love him even more — the team has been at its best with him on the court, not Curry. Sometimes you’ll hear that what Draymond does isn’t measured well by box score stats and it’s harder to prove he’s one of the best players, but that isn’t true. Any decently calibrated metric should state he has a star-like impact.

Stephen Curry’s Destruction of Stats

Curry has been breaking all sorts of unofficial records and setting marks on a wide variety of stats. For example, banked-in three-pointers, which, according to ESPN, used to be a record of five set by Carmelo Anthony in 2004 and equaled by Nic Batum in 2014 — Curry has 11 so far. He’s having one of the greatest seasons by a number of metrics like BPM, PER, Win Shares, HBox, and any other alphabet soup you can find on the internet. His three-point stats are otherworldly and it’s hard to even comprehend them because he’s leapt so far ahead of everyone else. His stats are quantum physics and the rest of us are trying to figure out how he fits in this classical basketball world. He’s nothing we’ve ever seen before.

Last week, Stephen Curry passed Charles Barkley for first since 1974 in an efficiency stat I track: points above average, which basically just means it’s the number of points you’ve added/subtracted through efficiency alone compared to the league average efficiency. He likely won’t pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s mark of 470 points added from 1972 — Kareem’s super high minutes load that season seals it — but he’ll get close and he’ll have the per possession/minute “record” all for himself.

Going by an old standard in graphing, the efficiency frontier can be seen below with Stephen Curry included. Visually, you can see how Curry separates himself from even the best scorers ever. LeBron James and Kevin Durant in 2014, respectively, had two of the greatest scoring seasons ever and their efficiency (at the time) was ridiculous. But Curry trumps them both by a good distance.

If Curry had been shooting at the league average true-shooting percentage, the Warriors would have lost nearly six points per game through just his shooting[3. This is ignoring a few factors, like offensive rebounding and how opposing teams would be running offenses after defensive boards more often.].

Of course, the driving force behind Curry’s efficiency is his three-point shooting, which is unprecedented. As seen below, the separation between Curry and every other season in NBA history is bizarre. It’s like Babe Ruth breaking his own home run record of 29 with an improbable 54 — baseball had not seen a comparable feat.

There’s a long list of bizarre little facts about Curry’s performance. If Zach LaVine had had a mediocre shooting season from behind the arc, there’s a decent chance Curry could have single-handedly beaten the Timberwolves in total three-pointers. Curry’s on pace for 400 three-pointers, which alone would have held the team record for three-pointers until the shortened line era in 1994. Based on his current rates, Curry could end up with over 180 unassisted three-pointers; only nine players, including Curry, have at least 180 total three-pointers right now. Via Justin Kubatko, Stephen Curry and Mo Speights as a duo would have the 17th most three-pointers all-time.

Curry will win the MVP and he might become the first one to unanimously do so. Thanks to his ludicrous stats, it’s easy to see why. No one’s ever had a season like this one. And we’re going to unpack strange stats about it for years.