LaMarcus Aldridge Hits His Stride
Don’t look now, but LaMarcus Aldridge is rounding into playoff form. After a slow start to his San Antonio Spurs career, he’s made gradual progress and is playing arguably his best basketball of the season.
We can see his overall progression through Kevin Ferrigan’s Daily RAPM Estimate (DRE), which approximates box-score statistics into net points above average per 100 possessions. While Aldridge has a cumulative 2.6 DRE per 36 minutes, his performance has improved throughout the year.[1. All data in this post are current through April 2, 2016.]
This chart can be broken down into three phases. From the start of the season to his 20th game, Aldridge was a below-average performer. Between his 20th and 45th games, he hovered around 2 points above average. Since that time period, his play has escalated toward the 5-point mark, a comparable level to the yearlong performance of Russell Westbrook.
What’s driven such impressive growth? It doesn’t appear to have stemmed from rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, or turnovers, which have held steady between the first and second halves of the season. Rather, it’s resulted from more efficient shooting.[2. On this front, I’m grateful for a Twitter conversation with @mynewhate, whose insights helped inspire my research.]
Again, we find a general upward trend, with a spike around the 45th game. From that point forward, Aldridge’s effective field goal has largely remained in the mid-50 percent and his true shooting in the low-60 percent. It’s led to some of the best marks in his career, even as he’s maintained his typical usage rate.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the standard features of high shot quality have factored into these efficient numbers. Aldridge has increased the percentage of shots near the rim at the expense of those between 16 feet and the arc. He’s also benefited from more assisted field goals. When it comes to play types, he’s sharpened his accuracy where he has historically left his imprint: the post.
Throughout the season, Aldridge has consistently executed from the post around 33 percent of the time, which tracks his past levels of frequency. After starting out sluggishly and bottoming out around 0.8 points per possession, he’s climbed beyond 1.0 PPP and kept himself there in the second half.[3. Indeed, over his last 25 games, he’s scored 1.12 PPP.] That’s enabled him to top last year’s 0.96 mark and lurk just a shade under the 90th percentile in post-up efficiency.
Without detailed spatial data, it’s hard to identify the precise source of Aldridge’s recent successes. Has he, for example, gotten more open shots in the post or simply adjusted to the ways of his new team? I’m sure it’s a combination of many different factors, but perhaps the more critical takeaway is that his strengths are both contributing to and being accentuated by San Antonio’s system. As Adam Mares noted in late November, the Spurs have made it a point to “own the elbows” with multiple individuals who excel at the post. They’ve followed through on this plan: David West, Boris Diaw, Kawhi Leonard, and Aldridge all have top-10 PPPs among players who have a minimum of 100 post possessions. Collectively, the Spurs are as efficient as the league-leading Oklahoma City Thunder while executing twice as many plays there. With the postseason just right around the corner, Aldridge and his teammates might be well-positioned to kick into a higher gear.