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FanDuel Economics: MLB Saturday, April 16th Picks

Apr 15, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Christian Yelich connects for a double during the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 15, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Christian Yelich connects for a double during the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 15, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Christian Yelich connects for a double during the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 15, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Christian Yelich connects for a double during the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel Economics: MLB Saturday, April 16th Picks

Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Saturday April 16th Picks edition. Ā FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

AnotherĀ full slate of games for MLB today, with 15 scheduled. Ā The day is almost evenly split between day and night games, with seven games starting 4:10pm ET or earlier. Ā The earliest game is Seattle playing in New York against the Yankees starting at 1:05pm ET. Ā Injuries aside, all players are on the table of lineup options for today. Ā FanDuel mayĀ expand on these options throughout the day. Ā Here’s a brief look at the breakout of times:

  • 1:05Ā ET (Early Only)
  • 1:05pm ET (All Day)
  • 7:05pm ET (Main)

BeforeĀ we dive into the MLB value picks for today, the point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night games from the night before. Ā However, the salary analysis is as of today. Ā Also, if you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups, follow me or tweet questionsĀ @MattyMcMatt17.Ā 

Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

Apr 10, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marco Estrada (25) gets ready to throw a pitch during the first inning in a game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 10, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marco Estrada (25) gets ready to throw a pitch during the first inning in a game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Value Pitchers (SP)

Marco Estrada (4:05pm ET) was activated from the disabled list in time to pitch against the Red Sox at home, Toronto, last Saturday. Ā This Saturday Estrada is pitching against the same Red Sox in Boston. Ā Marco was dealing with a sore back in the spring, but he has seemed to find a way to pitch through, or beyond, the soreness. Ā Last Saturday, Estrada hurled 7 complete innings giving up no runs, fanning 8, and took the win. Ā That landed Marco a total of 57 points. Ā Considering his $8,700 salary, that’s a 6.6X value. Ā Considering he’s facing a similar lineup early in the season, it’s likely Estrada can duplicate, or come close, to what he did a week ago. Ā So he’s worth the salary. Fellow staff writerĀ Brian Tulloch, MLB Picks & Pivots April 16th,Ā goes into more detail about Estrada’s post all-star break roll that appears to continue in 2016.

We visitedĀ Aaron NolaĀ (7:05pm ET) on Monday and his play worked out well. Ā Nola started the season, April 6th, with a 7 inning no decision giving up one run, but he struck out 8 in the outing and ended the game with 42 points. Ā As a follow up, April 11, Aaron has a similar outing. Ā Against the Padres, Nola gave up 4 runs over 7 innings, but fanned 9 hitters with a no decision. Ā Aaron ended the Padres game with 36 points. Ā So over his first two started Nola averaged 39 PPG and has a salary of only $7,100. Ā That gives Aaron a 5.5X value. Ā The Phillies seem to have several sleeper fantasy pitcher starters this year and Nola is one to continue to keep an eye on. Ā Even though he’s pitching against a very hot Nationals team, he’s worth a consideration to cool the Nats down a bit.

When it comes to pitchers, there are two things I like to start my focus on and that’s potential Wins (12 points) and strikeouts (3 points each). Ā At first look, Jon Niese (7:05pm) isn’t a highly attractive fantasy option with a 5.73 ERA. Ā However, Niese averaged 6 K’s per game and was able to get the win in Detroit. Ā Over Jon’s first two starts, he’s averaged 30 PPGs. Ā That’s not a huge number but it’s very good considering his $6,300 salary landing Niese at a 4.8X value in the top 30 of all starting pitchers. Ā Tonight, Jon pitches against a so-so Brewers lineup, but as a lefty, he has the edge over some of their best hitters. Ā Niese a a solid value play for tonight.

Next: Value Hitters

Apr 14, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Randal Grichuk (15) scores on a sacrifice fly hit by Kolten Wong (not pictured) during the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 14, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Randal Grichuk (15) scores on a sacrifice fly hit by Kolten Wong (not pictured) during the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports

Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. Ā This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. Ā It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Ā At the start of this season the values were all over the place. Ā There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Ā Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Ā For today, anyone over a 4.5X value is now top 20. Ā So these picks are focusing on those players, and some below, over the last week. Ā Today, we had most value in the OF positions.

Lately, it is very hard not to include a Cardinals hitter as a great value option. Ā They seem to have some sort of prospect factory which every organization in baseball would probably love to replicate. Ā Enter, Randal Grichuk, OF, (2:15pm ET).Ā  Grichuk seems to be a bit streaky, but he’s currently on the hot end of a streak. Ā He also could be a solid 30 HR candidate. Ā Over the last week, RandalĀ averaged 15.8 PPG. Ā His salary finally increased by $600, to $3,100, but that still leads to a 5.1X value. Ā For a $3,100 OF, that’s a very good value. Ā Grichuk faces a hot Branden Finnegan, Reds, tonight. Ā But Randal has been on fire and he’s well worth a consideration. Ā He could be a 20-30 point player without paying for someone as expensive as Harper, Stanton, or McCutchen.

Socrates Brito, OF, (8:40pm ET)Ā continues to start and hit well against RHP. Ā With Andrew Cashner up for the Padres tonight, it’s likely Brito gets another start. Ā Also, he happens to be hitting extremely well lately. Ā Over the last week Socrates is averaging 13.5 PPG and on a cheap $2,700 salary tonight he’s a 5X seven-day trend value. Ā The thing I like about Brito is he’s hitting 1st or 2nd in the lineup but is good for hits, a triple, a HR, and for a SB. Ā He’s a versatile option who will likely find a way to give you points, but still quite cheap.

Christian Yelich, OF, (7:10pm ET)Ā has a very good value, but it doesn’t pop off the chart. Ā However, what is very attractive is his consistency lately. Ā Here are the points Christian landed over his last seven games, by game; 15, 15, 24, 15, 12, 12, 15. You’re not going to find many players with that much consistency over seven games. Ā Yelich’s average over that period is 15.4 PPG. Ā Christian’s salary is now a pricey $3,800, but that still gives you a 4.1X value which is pretty outstanding for not only that point average but also the consistency. Ā Yelich is a confident play tonight.

To re-visit otherĀ value picks over the past couple of days, visit some of myĀ other columnsĀ for more value options today.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & PivotsĀ column. Ā Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB PicksĀ analysis. Ā DraftĀ KingĀ uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Ā Both also provide great ā€˜stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.

Next: DraftKings NBA Picks For April 16

I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers!Ā  Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!