FanDuel Economics: MLB Saturday, April 16th Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Saturday April 16th Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
Another full slate of games for MLB today, with 15 scheduled. The day is almost evenly split between day and night games, with seven games starting 4:10pm ET or earlier. The earliest game is Seattle playing in New York against the Yankees starting at 1:05pm ET. Injuries aside, all players are on the table of lineup options for today. FanDuel may expand on these options throughout the day. Here’s a brief look at the breakout of times:
- 1:05 ET (Early Only)
- 1:05pm ET (All Day)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, the point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night games from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today. Also, if you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups, follow me or tweet questions @MattyMcMatt17.
Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers (SP)
Marco Estrada (4:05pm ET) was activated from the disabled list in time to pitch against the Red Sox at home, Toronto, last Saturday. This Saturday Estrada is pitching against the same Red Sox in Boston. Marco was dealing with a sore back in the spring, but he has seemed to find a way to pitch through, or beyond, the soreness. Last Saturday, Estrada hurled 7 complete innings giving up no runs, fanning 8, and took the win. That landed Marco a total of 57 points. Considering his $8,700 salary, that’s a 6.6X value. Considering he’s facing a similar lineup early in the season, it’s likely Estrada can duplicate, or come close, to what he did a week ago. So he’s worth the salary. Fellow staff writer Brian Tulloch, MLB Picks & Pivots April 16th, goes into more detail about Estrada’s post all-star break roll that appears to continue in 2016.
We visited Aaron Nola (7:05pm ET) on Monday and his play worked out well. Nola started the season, April 6th, with a 7 inning no decision giving up one run, but he struck out 8 in the outing and ended the game with 42 points. As a follow up, April 11, Aaron has a similar outing. Against the Padres, Nola gave up 4 runs over 7 innings, but fanned 9 hitters with a no decision. Aaron ended the Padres game with 36 points. So over his first two started Nola averaged 39 PPG and has a salary of only $7,100. That gives Aaron a 5.5X value. The Phillies seem to have several sleeper fantasy pitcher starters this year and Nola is one to continue to keep an eye on. Even though he’s pitching against a very hot Nationals team, he’s worth a consideration to cool the Nats down a bit.
When it comes to pitchers, there are two things I like to start my focus on and that’s potential Wins (12 points) and strikeouts (3 points each). At first look, Jon Niese (7:05pm) isn’t a highly attractive fantasy option with a 5.73 ERA. However, Niese averaged 6 K’s per game and was able to get the win in Detroit. Over Jon’s first two starts, he’s averaged 30 PPGs. That’s not a huge number but it’s very good considering his $6,300 salary landing Niese at a 4.8X value in the top 30 of all starting pitchers. Tonight, Jon pitches against a so-so Brewers lineup, but as a lefty, he has the edge over some of their best hitters. Niese a a solid value play for tonight.
Next: Value Hitters
Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. For today, anyone over a 4.5X value is now top 20. So these picks are focusing on those players, and some below, over the last week. Today, we had most value in the OF positions.
Lately, it is very hard not to include a Cardinals hitter as a great value option. They seem to have some sort of prospect factory which every organization in baseball would probably love to replicate. Enter, Randal Grichuk, OF, (2:15pm ET). Grichuk seems to be a bit streaky, but he’s currently on the hot end of a streak. He also could be a solid 30 HR candidate. Over the last week, Randal averaged 15.8 PPG. His salary finally increased by $600, to $3,100, but that still leads to a 5.1X value. For a $3,100 OF, that’s a very good value. Grichuk faces a hot Branden Finnegan, Reds, tonight. But Randal has been on fire and he’s well worth a consideration. He could be a 20-30 point player without paying for someone as expensive as Harper, Stanton, or McCutchen.
Socrates Brito, OF, (8:40pm ET) continues to start and hit well against RHP. With Andrew Cashner up for the Padres tonight, it’s likely Brito gets another start. Also, he happens to be hitting extremely well lately. Over the last week Socrates is averaging 13.5 PPG and on a cheap $2,700 salary tonight he’s a 5X seven-day trend value. The thing I like about Brito is he’s hitting 1st or 2nd in the lineup but is good for hits, a triple, a HR, and for a SB. He’s a versatile option who will likely find a way to give you points, but still quite cheap.
Christian Yelich, OF, (7:10pm ET) has a very good value, but it doesn’t pop off the chart. However, what is very attractive is his consistency lately. Here are the points Christian landed over his last seven games, by game; 15, 15, 24, 15, 12, 12, 15. You’re not going to find many players with that much consistency over seven games. Yelich’s average over that period is 15.4 PPG. Christian’s salary is now a pricey $3,800, but that still gives you a 4.1X value which is pretty outstanding for not only that point average but also the consistency. Yelich is a confident play tonight.
To re-visit other value picks over the past couple of days, visit some of my other columns for more value options today.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
Next: DraftKings NBA Picks For April 16
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!