Nylon Notebook: Jeff Teague, James Harden, and more playoff notes

In Game 1, the Atlanta Hawks had their way with the Boston Celtics for about 24 minutes, running up a 17-point halftime lead. Boston came back in the second half and Atlanta escaped with just a one-point win, but there were encouraging signs for them regardless of the final margin. Al Horford and Paul Millsap were just too much for the Celtics’ frontcourt to handle, extending a pattern that was established during the regular season. However, most exciting for Atlanta was the 23-point, 12-assist performance of Jeff Teague. That tied a season-high for assists and was a nice bump over his 15.7 points per game regular season average.

Atlanta’s offense has never been able to recapture the synergy they played with during last year’s regular season. They struggled in the playoffs and earned the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference by shifting focus to defense, finishing just behind the San Antonio Spurs as the second-stingiest in the league. When their offensive machine was in peak form it was mostly about swinging the ball from side-to-side, searching for open shooters instead of highlighting any one player’s individual talents. However, Teague’s penetration was often the engine that drove the whole machine forward.

Game 1 was a peak performance for Teague in terms of driving into the teeth of the defense and making things happen.

These numbers are culled from the NBA’s player tracking statistics, showing that Teague drove more often and was more effective in Game 1 than any extended regular or post season stretch over the past two seasons. Score percentage is a composite of my own making, and is simply the percentage of Teague’s drives which results in either a made basket, a made free throw, or an assist for Teague. With Avery Bradley likely out for the rest of the series, Boston is without their best perimeter defender. Perhaps this is the kickstart that Teague and the Hawk’s offense needed.

James Harden, shut out at the line

Not much went right for the Houston Rockets in their Game 1 loss to the Golden State Warriors. James Harden, in particularly, struggled to score in the ways he usually does and finished the game without a single free throw attempt. Harden is defined by his ability to draw fouls as much as anything, and this was just the third time in his NBA career that he played at least 30 minutes without attempting a free throw. It was a masterful defensive job by the Warriors, but they didn’t just accomplish it by keeping him away from the basket — Harden still attempted eight shots in the restricted area.

Harden’s free throw rate during the regular season was 0.518 which means he attempted a little over one free for every two field goal attempts. However, that ratio is cluttered with plenty of jump shots where we wouldn’t normally expect a shooting foul to be drawn. If we look at Harden’s free throw rate as simple free throws attempted per field goal attempt in the restricted area, his donut in Game 1 looks even more striking.

This season Harden attempted nearly two free throws for each shot attempt in the restricted area, essentially a nearly even ratio of close shot attempts to shooting fouls drawn. Given his eight shot attempts in the restricted area of Game 1, we’d expect him to attempt about 15 free throws. Ironically, 15 free throws was exactly what he earned in Game 2, against just three field goal attempts in the restricted area. This is all academic, as Golden State has a commanding 2-0 series lead and doesn’t look to be letting up anytime soon.

The Raptors rotations

The Toronto Raptors bounced back in a big way, taking Game 2 from the Indiana Pacers to even their series. Obviously, they would have liked to have won both games at home but some of the pressure has been released with the win. Both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have struggled shooting the ball. Lowry’s true shooting percentage for the series is 42.2 percent. DeRozan’s is 30.3. This continues a troubling trend for both players of not being able to match regular season efficiency in the playoffs.

The graph below shows all players over the last three seasons who averaged at least 30 minutes per game and 10 field goal attempts in both the regular season and playoffs, and played in at least 10 playoff games. They are marked by their regular season true shooting percentage and playoff true shooting percentage.

Clearly, most players are less efficient in the postseason, the level of competition is going up. However, Lowry and DeRozan both fall significantly below the line and both have true shooting percentages on the low end of average to begin with. Lowry compensated in Game 2 by becoming more of a facilitator — he had 9 assists and 4 secondary assists (passes that led directly to an assist). Still, the Raptors are in this position mostly because of strong play from Jonas Valanciunas and their bench.

In particular, Norman Powell and Patrick Patterson made huge impacts in the win over Indiana. They didn’t play at all together during Game 1. In 17 minutes during Game 2 with Powell and Patterson on the floor together, Toronto outscored Indiana by 55.8 points per 100 possessions. For eleven of those minutes, Paul George was on the floor for the Pacers. You can see from the game flow at Popcorn Machine that the Raptors really put the game out of reach during the second half stint that Powell and Patterson played together.

Patterson is hugely important as a floor-spacer and, at this point, Powell demands more attention as three-point shooter than either DeMarre Carroll or Terrence Ross. Those two bring energy, shooting, and mobility and if Toronto is going to advance, keeping their minutes up is probably a good play.