FanDuel Economics: MLB Tuesday, May 3rd Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Tuesday, May 3rd Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
We’re back to a full slate of 15 MLB games scheduled today. Tuesday starts off with the first pitch from Josh Tomlin, for the Indians, against the Tigers in Cleveland at 6:10pm. Seven other games begin between 7:05pm and 8pm, so FanDuel has an ‘Early Only’ option for all games prior to 8pm. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:
- 6:10pm ET (Early Only)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers (SP)
Low Risk – Pick or Fade
Jose Quintana (8:10pm ET) is having a fantastic season for the White Sox. After five outings, Quintana’s worst game, against the Rays, was still as high as 30 points. Jose’s last outing against the Blue Jays is a high-mark of 60 points. On the season, Quintana is 3-1, has a 1.47 ERA, and 32 K’s over 30.2 innings. Jose is averaging 41.8 PPG and still only has a salary of $8,600. So going into tonight’s game at home against the Red Sox, Quintana is walking a 4.9X value to the mound with him. Even with a hot hitting Boston lineup, Jose Quintana is a great value tonight.
I was high on Steven Wright (8:10pm ET) last Wednesday. Steven thankfully backed me up with 54 points. The veteran knuckleballer continues to stifle opposing hitters. Over four outings, Wright is 2-2 but in 26.1 innings Steven has a 1.37 ERA and has 25 strikeouts. So far this season Steven averages 41.5 PPG. Tonight’s salary of $8,500 again seems cheap considering his performance so far this year and he brings a 4.9X value into the game tonight.
I like each of these pitchers values tonight, but they’re facing each other. So I would suggest picking one and fading the other. Or doing two lineups playing one in each. Between the two, I like Quintana the most.
High Risk
Justin Nicolino (7:10pm ET) has only pitched one game this season, but he may have already earned a permanent spot in the Marlins rotation. Jarred Cosart appears to have been demoted from the starting rotation, with Nicolino replacing Cosart. In Justin’s only outing this season, he held the Dodgers hitters to only 2 hits, 2 walks, and no runs over 7.1 innings, taking the win along with 2 strikeouts. Only getting 2 strikeouts is a concern, but Nicolino did pitch against a very good Dodgers lineup, so we have to see if he continues to trend with a low strikeout ratio. However, Justin still compiled 40 points with the win. Nicolino’s salary is only $6,700, so if he can repeat 40 points, he would be a remarkable 6X value. Also, if Justin continues to pitch this well, it’s very likely his salary will continue to climb. So get him while he’s still cheap. But be aware of the risk.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 5.0X value is top 25.
Brandon Drury, 3B, (7:10pm ET) is catching fire and only slowing getting notice from fantasy MLB players. If he continues his current hot streak, he won’t stay quiet much longer. In his last five games, Drury belted 5 home runs, 6 RBI’s, and 6 Runs. Over the last week, Brandon averaged 16 PPG. Tonight Drury’s salary climbed to $6,000, but that’s still very cheap for 15-20 points a night. With a 5.3X value, Brandon faces a tough young hitter Nicolino, but his value is hard to ignore for tonight’s picks.
Jonathan Villar, SS, (8:10pm ET) has quietly had some big games lately but Villar has also been a hit or miss play. Jonathan had two games, one against the Marlins another against the Cubs, where he exceeded 30 points over his last four game splayed. Villar is a riskier FanDuel MLB play because he’s not a slugger, but his 3 hit games along with multiple runs and average of 1 stolen base over the last four games makes Jonathan an intriguing option at SS for only $3,000. Villar averaged 14.7 PPG over the last week bringing a very solid 4.9X value into tonight’s game, at home against the Angels.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
I already talked about Hunter Pence yesterday, and Pence continues to be a great value, but I won’t revisit Hunter in detail. Despite facing Quintana tonight, it’s hard to ignore Jackie Bradley Jr. (8:10pm ET). The Red Sox bats have been hot, and Jackie is part of the reason. On Saturday, Bradley had 2 triples, 1 double, a walk, 3 RBI’s, and 2 runs piling up 43.9 points for the night. Since April 25th, over seven games, Jackie had five games in double-digit points. Over the last week, Bradley averaged 16.7 PPG. Tonight Jackie’s salary is $3,200 giving us a very high 5.2X value, one of the top 5 hitting value options for tonight. If you’re fading Quintana tonight, Bradley is also a great option.
Nolan Reimold (7:05pm ET) is fighting hard for a spot in a very crowded Orioles lineup. Playing Reimold is risky because he doesn’t start every game, but he’s been playing more often, so it’s worth considering Nolan tonight. So far this season, Reimold is hitting .343, has 3 home runs, 7 runs, and 6 RBI’s. Over the last week Nolan averaged 13.4 PPG, including a 3-RBI home run game against the White Sox. Tonight Reimold’s salary is a very cheap $2,700 salary giving us a 5X value.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!