MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 3

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 3

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Tuesday’s games start off at 6:10PM EST with Detroit and Cleveland and FanDuel will offer an “early only slate” to include this game, however the main slate starts at the normal 7:05PM EST including 14 total games.

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Sunday’s tournament results are simple – if you did not have Clayton Kershaw and his 81 points, well you likely did not cash out. Even at Kershaw’s price of $12,900, he was still able to hit 6.3x value with his massive line and was the first pitcher with over a price point over 10k to be the winning GPP hurler in the last 10 days.

I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitchers

Matt Harvey ($9,500)  –  The Dark Knight takes the field on Tuesday night at Citi Field as a massive home favorite going against the Braves who have one of the lowest projected team totals on the board. Harvey’s season averages are still weighed down by his slow start but over his last two games, he has seen his fantasy point output increase to 36 and 45 points while racking up 7 strikeouts in his last outing. What I love about Harvey on this slate is that his matchup makes him a rock solid cash game target but his ability to put up double digit strikeouts on any night give him tremendous GPP upside. I do not expect Harvey’s price to stay below $10k for long but any time you can get one of the elite arms in baseball for a price under that threshold, it makes for a great play in all formats.

Steven Wright ($8,500) – If you have not been paying attention, Wright has been a revelation for the Red Sox  and fantasy owners alike. Wright started off the year with 32 and 30 fantasy points(both against Toronto) but the last two games has put up 50 and 54 points in back to back wins. The matchup against the White Sox does not present the greatest matchup as the White Sox do not strike out often, and in fact are one of the toughest teams to strike out when they play at home. My recommendation with Wright is rooted in his consistency – 4 starts, 6 IP in each one and putting up between 5-8 strikeouts per outing. For casual gamers, they may gloss over Wright at this increased price point , especially with other more popular names available, but Wright is a great cash game play who may be under owned and make for a great GPP pivot off similarly priced pitchers.

Collin McHugh ($7,700) – Ok this pick has far less to do with the pitcher and much more to do with the matchup. On the road, the Twins strike out A LOT – as in leading the league with strikeouts per game on the road with over 12/game. McHugh is NOT a strike out pitcher but this matchup presents hidden value and may allow the Astros right hander to rack up a few extra strikeouts to buoy his score. At the same price point, a potential pivot is Matt Moore ($7,600) who has recaptured his velocity this season and is racking up major strikeouts and fantasy points so far this year. Moore has not walked more than 2 batters in a game and has struck out 9, 5 & 10 batters in his last 3 starts. The matchup against the Dodgers is challenging as LA strikes out less than 20% of the time against opposing LHP, but Moore has proven this year against the Orioles and White Sox that even in tough matchups he can put up massive numbers making him a great GPP play!

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks

Hitters/Stacks

Toronto Right Handed Bats versus LHP Martin Perez – Any time we can get the Toronto bats at home against a lefty, this is a must play stack for me. Perez has had an awful ratio so far this season of 15 walks to only 14 K’s and his inability to miss bats puts the Jays in a great position to put up a crooked numbers.

1B Edwin Encarnacion ($3,300), 3B Josh Donaldson ($4,800) & OF – Jose Bautista ($4,100) are the top targets for me and if you add in C – Russell Martin ($2,200)  you can attack this matchup with 4 bats with homerun potential. What I love about this stack, is that even if you choose to roster Harvey you still have $2,800 per player to spend on your remaining 4 positions which allows us for a very well rounded and high upside stack!

Miami Marlins versus LHP Patrick Corbin – The ballpark in Miami is not typically where gamers go for offense, but a matchup against Arizona lefty, Patrick Corbin, may change that narrative on Tuesday. Corbin is tied for the most home runs given up in the NL with a total of 7 home runs with an astounding estimated averaged distance over 435 feet and based off the landing spots of those home runs, all seven would be out in Marlins Park. It may be difficult to fit in Giancarlo Stanton ($4,900) but this matchup has multi home run upside and stacked with OF – Marcell Ozuna ($3,200) we can attack a home run prone SP in a matchup that may fall under the radar.

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!