Thunder take Game 4 and the momentum

The NBA playoffs are here. The games are tighter, the lights are brighter, and the narratives are getting thick. It can be a lot to keep up with but don’t worry we’re here to help. Throughout the NBA postseason, FanSided will be gathering together some of the most talented writers from our network for a daily recap of our favorite stories from the night before.

Welcome to the Rotation.

The momentum swings

Ian Levy | @HickoryHigh | FanSided

On Friday night, it appeared that the Oklahoma City Thunder were finished. They had lost by four points at home, in a game where Russell Westbrook’s snarling aggressiveness had manifested, mostly, in a slew of turnovers, bad shots and questionable decisions. The Thunder only trailed 2-1 in the series, but their one win was cemented with 13 seconds of unreplicable inanity. They had no answer for LaMarcus Aldridge, or Kawhi Leonard, or Tony Parker for that matter. There was no way the Thunder were winning the series, the foundation was crumbling, and next season Kevin Durant was probably going to be playing for a title with the Spurs or the Golden State Warriors.

What a difference a few days makes.

The Thunder blew the doors of San Antonio in the final few minutes of Game 4, pushing the final margin to 14 points. Westbrook struggled to make shots again, but finished with 15 assists and just 3 turnovers. Durant poured in 41. Aldridge and Leonard looked decidedly mortal, while Dion Waiters scored 17 off the bench for the Thunder, making a quiet bid for playoff immortality (of a different sort than in Game 2). The series all is tied up at two games a piece and while the road ahead is still long, Oklahoma City advancing doesn’t seem nearly as implausible as it did when the weekend began.

Such is the power of momentum. The stretched out scheduling of the playoffs, sometimes with two or three days off between each game, creates the illusion that each or win or loss is a final statement on the present and future of each team. There is still a flow and an extended rhythm, it’s just interrupted as we look away to watch the Cavaliers complete a sweep of the Hawks, or Kyle Lowry struggling for redemption. The narrative arcs overlap and get twisted, playoff memory is short.

The Thunder may came get the doors blown off them in Game 5, momentum if a fickle creature, and the odds are still stacked against them. But they have changed the story for now, the individual brilliance of Durant and the chaotic powers of Westbrook can be enough to bring San Antonio’s machine to a grinding halt. There is a hope where just a few days ago, there was almost none.

The San Antonio Spurs are still in control

Ben Gibson | @CowboyOnPatrol | Hoops Habit, 8 Points, 9 Seconds

The Oklahoma City Thunder leveled their series with the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, giving the impression that the series is still up for grabs. Technically, it is, but realistically, the Spurs are still in control.

When you look at the Thunder’s wins in Game 2 and Game 4, it is hard not to notice that Oklahoma City dodged a bullet (or two) and got a 41-point game from Kevin Durant. They needed a few things to go their way for the series to be level at 2-2.

In Game 2, it took a blatantly illegal shove by Dion Waiters and Patty Mills missing a wide open three-pointer to escape San Antonio with a win. These aren’t excuses for the Spurs as much as they are a reminder of the razor’s edge the Thunder were playing on in Game 2. It helped that the Spurs shot only 42.6 percent in the game, and credit goes to Oklahoma City for contributing to that, but in these playoffs San Antonio has shot 48.4 percent from the field. Their field goal percentage in the series is the same, a testament to the Spurs’ consistency.

It only takes a bounce going San Antonio’s way and perhaps the Spurs would have taken a 2-0 lead. It doesn’t matter now whether they should have gotten the call or anything else changing about Game 2, but when evaluating the series, it is worth looking at those circumstances. Game 4 and the Thunder’s win to tie the series wasn’t as nearly as controversial, but again, looking at how it played out there is room to rationalize the loss for San Antonio.

For starters, Kevin Durant scored 41 points, 29 of which came in the second half. The Spurs had controlled the game up until the end of the second quarter, but Durant pushed his team to victory. He had a special performance on Mother’s Day to make sure the Thunder didn’t head to San Antonio behind in the series.

But at the same time when you look at Oklahoma City’s win, it is easy to see how realistically things could have gone the other way. Kawhi Leonard couldn’t shut down Durant on Sunday. Durant may get the best of Leonard again in this series, but doing it two out of three times as the series comes to a close is a tough task, even for an MVP-quality player like Durant.

Despite the nature of the head-to-head matchup, looking at the Spurs, the gulf between the shooting in wins and losses is staggering. From beyond the arc, they’ve shot significantly worse in their losses at 22.9 percent compared to the series average of 39.1 percent. The Thunder have shown more consistency in both the wins and losses as far as their shooting numbers go, but that can also mean that in both cases, their effect on the game (at least on the offensive end) doesn’t dictate the outcome as much as how the Spurs play does.

Again, this isn’t to dismiss the Thunder’s victories as luck or anything like that, but to illustrate how they’ve needed exceptional things to happen to push them to victory. The Spurs can look at the results and see even on their bad nights, it’s taken shenanigans and a untimely missed open shot to sink them, as well as a special night from Durant.

That’s why the Spurs are still in control even with the series leveled. Their shooting will likely settle down, taking away an edge that Oklahoma City had in their wins. San Antonio doesn’t need an exceptional performance to get them a win, they just need to do what they always do and execute like they always do.

We saw in Game 1 just how dominant the Spurs can be. It is unlikely they can beat down the Thunder like they did in that game, but it is easy to see them remaining the steady constant that they always are and punching their ticket into the Western Conference Finals.

It make take 6 or 7 games, but the Spurs are still in control of the series.

Last year’s Hawks, this year’s Hawks, same old Hawks?

Adam McGee | @AdamMcGee11 | Behind The Buck Pass

After a 60-win season, a Conference Finals sweep was a crushing blow to the Atlanta Hawks last year, but at the very least it gave them a purpose. All season long their players spoke with a steely determination, while the coaching staff made it clear this wasn’t a team that was going to be prepared to rest on its laurels.

Atlanta were the proud owners of the league’s sixth best offense and seventh best defense in 2014-15, yet in an attempt to be better prepared for the big moments, coach Mike Budenholzer initiated a change in style. The Hawks took a step back on offense but arguably two steps forward on defense, where they were the league’s second-best defensive unit this season.

That lockdown defense proved telling in the first round as it smothered the Celtics for large periods of time. Presented with their shot at redemption against the Cavaliers (the fourth-best offensive team in the NBA) it proved to be an entirely different story though. In spite of how it looks at first glance, this series wasn’t as simple as the Hawks struggling defensively. There haven’t been any real problems with Atlanta’s initial coverage, but as the shot clock wound down the Cavaliers had the necessary tools to keep moving the ball until they found an opening.

Call it good defense, better offense, if you like, but they found a lot of openings.

Having been in with a chance to steal an unlikely Game 1 victory and having come up short, and then being blown out in Game 2, Friday night’s matchup presented Atlanta with a do or die scenario. Or maybe more appropriately in the case of the Hawks, fight or flight. With Budenholzer moving Kyle Korver to the bench in favor of Thabo Sefolosha, it was clear from the get-go that Atlanta planned on giving Cleveland a different look. In reality, they showed us something that we’d all seen before.

With their backs up against the wall, the Hawks recaptured the spirit of that 60-win season. Prior to the game, there was a lot of talk about Atlanta’s need to score in the paint, to get better penetration, to move the ball better, and to take the three-point chances that fell their way. They may have all been keys to who the team was before, but they still delivered on all of those fronts.

After combining for only 56 points in the paint between the first two games of the series, the Hawks grabbed 46 on Friday thanks to strong work in the pick-and-roll and countless lobs to Horford at the basket. Jeff Teague was aggressive throughout, driving to the basket to finish and also kicking out to teammates. It’s hard to ask for more than 19 points, 14 assists and only a single turnover.

It may not have been the primary intention of the change to the starting lineup, but regardless Korver found his best rhythm of the series coming off the bench. The former Creighton man knocked down 5-9 from beyond the arc to play his part in Atlanta’s 47.1 percent three-point shooting night. 16 three-point makes in a single game set a new franchise playoff record for Atlanta, and still it wasn’t nearly enough.

It’s hard to account for a night when Channing Frye goes 7-9 from deep. In Game 4, it was Kevin Love knocking down 8-15 three-pointers and clutch LeBron James finishing the sweep for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The ability to completely transform the team’s style from an offense-first juggernaut to a lockdown defensive scrounge in a 12 month spell, while remaining one of the league’s better teams is a testament to just how good this Hawks team is. At the same time, the way in which they reverted to what was once their tried and tested formula when their back was up against the wall, offers up its own questions.

Under their current construction, is it possible for the Hawks to combine the best of their abilities on both ends of the floor? Two strong seasons should give Atlanta great cause for optimism, but instead it feels like LeBron James is forcing them to do some soul searching.

Is DeMar DeRozan really a max player?

Tom West | @TomWestNBA | Clipperholics, FanSided

When looking forward to free agency, the playoffs are typically a chance for younger players to prove themselves, pursuing a final surge of possible financial gain in the summer. Kent Bazemore, for instance, is such a player. His role increased this year, he’s proven himself to be an athletic, reliable 3-and-D wing, and the playoffs are merely a chance to step up on the biggest stage and add a few more dollars to the sizeable deal he’ll receive this summer.

DeMar DeRozan, on the other hand, shouldn’t really fit this category. As a two-time All-Star, coming off the best regular season of his career with averages of 23.5 points on 44.6 percent shooting, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game, DeRozan showed what he can do. Every team already knows what he’s about, with powerful athleticism, strong driving ability, and an improved mid-range game (albeit a somewhat inconsistent one).

The latter element of his game is hurting his Raptors in the playoffs. A 6-of-17 shooting performance in Game 3 against the Heat may not have been enough to cost Toronto their 95-91 win, but it certainly dragged down the offense, looking even more worrying once Jonas Valanciunas left with injury. And with the exit of the center who has been the team’s leading impact player throughout the playoffs so far, the Raptors’ night may have ended with far more disappointment if Kyle Lowry didn’t have such a major bounce-back performance.

If it wasn’t for a newly motivated and confident Lowry, coming off some shooting practice on an empty court until 1:00 AM to score 33 points (29 in the second half) on 11-of-19 shooting, DeRozan would have left Raptors fans in frustration yet again. And he still did. More inefficiency, more tough long jumpers, and more unwise shot selection.

In an attempt to do all he can for the Raptors, it’s DeRozan’s decision making that causes the most frustration.

Anyone who watches enough basketball knows that long twos are generally the worst shots to take. They’re often contested and they normally end up being taken off the dribble for most guards, such as DeRozan. He hasn’t stopped flowing with this trend throughout the playoffs either, taking 36.3 percent of his shots this postseason from at least 16 feet out and making them at a mere 35.6 percent rate.

In fact, throughout his 10 games in the playoffs so far, DeRozan is shooting only 33.8 percent overall, causing the Raptors to score 10 more points per 100 possessions when he’s off the floor. Even with a matchup against an elite defender like Paul George in the first round, those numbers are far from pretty. To make matters worse, his free throw shooting (59.1 percent against Miami so far) is also a far cry from the 85 percent he averaged in the regular season. After a while, you have to think this comes down to his mental makeup on the brighter stage. Because the rest of his career in the playoffs isn’t much better; he shot 38.5 percent in the 2013-14 playoffs and 40 percent in 2014-15.

And all of this is where the matter of DeRozan’s appeal in free agency may take a slight hit, or at least pose some disappointment after his best regular season yet. Typically, a solid enough showing in the playoffs should maintain the general value of contracts teams are projecting during the regular season, especially for someone regarded as a star player already.

So, out of eagerness for stars, are teams really going to hold back with their countless new millions? There are too many teams with too much money, desperate to start turning around their fortune with a new All-Star. Unfortunately, there isn’t enough talent for everyone to leave free agency happy.

Outside of Bradley Beal, there aren’t a host of top-tier marksmen or scoring shooting guards on the market. And with that relatively shallow talent pool for the position this year, the dollars will only increase for DeRozan.

A max contract is likely heading his way; not to reward a playoff hero or a player on par with the league’s utmost elite, but due to every other factor favoring his bank account.

Raptors require varsity effort without JV

Gerald Bourguet | @GeraldBourguet | HoopsHabit

For a Toronto Raptors team that looked like it was finally ready to exorcise some playoff demons, the news that Jonas Valanciunas will miss the rest of the team’s second round series was something of a crushing blow.

In a Game 3 road victory against the Miami Heat, the Raptors overcame the loss of their vitally important big man after he landed awkwardly on his ankle and exited the game with 8:52 remaining in the third quarter.

At the time, the Raptors held a 55-42 lead. By the end of the period, the Heat had tied the game at 68, outscoring Toronto 26-13 and riding a wave of momentum that was only quelled by Kyle Lowry’s fourth quarter explosion. The Raptors have a 2-1 series lead, they stole home-court advantage back in Game 3 and following Lowry’s 33-point resurgence, they may have finally found enough of their All-Star backcourt to wrap this series up.

On the other hand, a team notorious for shrinking from big playoff moments just lost its postseason MVP in a series against a team full of experienced veterans. Through Toronto’s first 10 playoff games, JV has been the Raptors’ most consistent performer, averaging 15.0 points, 12.1 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game on 55 percent shooting.

His 4.4 offensive rebounds per game (fourth among all players in the postseason) have provided Toronto’s sputtering offense with second chance opportunities, he’s shot the ball efficiently on his rare post-up opportunities, and his unique combination of size, strength and timing has made him an absolute beast for opposing bigs to cover.

There are obvious concerns that come from Valanciunas’ absence, aside from the obvious lack of a go-to scorer who was getting Toronto timely buckets from put-backs and post sets.

For starters, Luis Scola was a disastrous -13 in just five minutes of action in Game 3, just one of many indicators he’s unplayable in this series. Relying on Terrence Ross in the postseason has never been comforting, and unless Dwane Casey gives James Johnson some minutes, the Raptors’ frontcourt depth is a very real problem.

All it takes is Lowry regressing back to his underachieving playoff self or DeRozan continuing to sabotage his own team and prime-time performers like Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson will take advantage. The good news, however, is that Toronto has an entirely capable backup in Bismack Biyombo, who averaged 7.2 points, 12.2 rebounds and 2.0 blocks on 54.8 percent shooting in his 22 starts for the Raptors during the regular season.

With Hassan Whiteside listed as day-to-day due to an MCL sprain, the Heat are similarly undermanned at the center spot. No offense to Amar’e Stoudemire and Udonis Haslem, but the Raptors have the superior understudy if both starting bigs are out for the series.

With the lion’s share of the shots going to Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors are also well poised to maintain their same playing style without Valanciunas. True enough, Lowry and DeRozan have mightily struggled in the playoffs. DeRozan’s scoring is down to 18.6 points per game on abysmal .338/.167/.770 shooting splits, while Lowry has shot worse than 39 percent from the field in every single playoff game except his Game 3 bounce-back.

But the Raptors are still the better and deeper team overall, even with JV out. Whiteside’s potential absence would deprive Miami of their league-leading shot-blocker, opening things up for Lowry and DeRozan to attack the rim where they can be more efficient.

Cory Joseph has been a Godsend off the bench, DeMarre Carroll is fully healthy and inserting Patrick Patterson into the starting lineup paid dividends in Game 3. Toronto will be forced to match Miami’s wings with small-ball lineups of their own, but that might be a good thing with Whiteside sidelined.

The Toronto Raptors may have lost their best playoff performer, but thanks to a deeper bench and Lowry (hopefully) finding his footing, they may be poised to end this series soon and afford some much-needed rest time before the Eastern Conference Finals.