Barnstorming: The Toronto Raptors are not just happy to be here

The Toronto Raptors have never been to the Eastern Conference Finals before. They have already won eight playoff games this season, after winning a grand total of 14 across the organization’s first two decades. They have played tough defense, good enough offense, won close games, survived huge injuries, exorcised their metaphoric playoff demons, and, finally, saw Kyle Lowry play like the star that he is.

Congratulations. Next up is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are making three-pointers at a historic rate and looking very much like the juggernaut they were presumed to be at the beginning of last season. The projections at FiveThirtyEight give the Toronto Raptors a 26 percent chance of advancing to the Finals, which, it should be noted, is worse odds than the Oklahoma City Thunder were projected with against the confirmed juggernaut of the Golden State Warriors.

This has the look and feel of the end of the road for the Raptors, a tough series where they fight hard, earn some respect, but come up short against superior talent. If you think Toronto would be satisfied with that outcome, content to settle for the backslapping of “the best playoff run in team history,” then you’ve probably never watched Sporps or you’re the Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. The Raptors are supremely confident and they are not just happy to be here.

Confidence comes in many shades. In basketball we are most acquainted with two varieties. The first is the deific confidence of the league’s elite. Think LeBron James or Stephen Curry. They play with the confidence of one who has done the impossible and knows that they can summon that level of performance when they need it most. The other is the clownishly absurd confidence of players like Jordan Crawford or Nick Young, the unshakeable delusion that they belong in the Curry-LeBron category, despite all evidence to the contrary.

Toronto’s belief in themselves is just as strong but it comes from a different place — not ignorance or omnipotence, but experience. Ugly, messy, heart-breaking experience. The Raptors know how good they are and how good they can be because they are in touch with their flaws. Theirs is the confidence of struggles survived.

Toronto won two of three from the Cavaliers during the regular season — wins of four and two points at home, and a 22-point blowout loss in Cleveland. The sequencing of those games is just as important as the final margins, with the wins sandwiched around the loss. Toronto had a chance to see Cleveland at their fiery best. They took those heavyweight body blows and came back to beat the Cavs again just a few weeks later. They know what it feels like to get pounded by Cleveland, to watch three-pointers rain down upon their heads (17 of them for the Cavs in that game), and then pick themselves up and go back to running their offense and working their tails off on defense, grinding out possessions and quarters until the score is once again in their favor.

In that second win over Cleveland, Kyle Lowry was brilliant — 43 points and 9 assists, shooting 15-of-20 from the field. Just a few weeks ago, it seemed like we might never see that player again but Lowry appears to have shaken off whatever it was that was weighing him down for a series-and-a-half. In the last three games of the Miami series, he averaged 32.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game, shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 57.1 percent on three-pointers. That’s the player who led this team all season long, the guy who gives them confidence in the biggest moments.

After their Game 7 win over the Heat, head coach Dwane Casey talked about the push and pull of confidence as the team struggled and ultimately prevailed (h/t Kevin Yeung, Hardwood Paroxysm):

"“The guys kind of lost confidence a little bit, Kyle coming back in shooting late at night, but they still stuck with the process. They stuck with the confidence in what we were doing, offensive and defensively, and I thought that was important. They never lost confidence in the team, and once [Lowry] got his game together, then it just never wavered.”"

Kyle Lowry is just the latest in a rich and varied point guard legacy for the Toronto Raptors. There are the legendary stories of Jose Calderon’s matador defense, of Damon Stoudamire’s shot selection, of Greivis Vasquez’s faux hawk, of Alvin Williams just kind of showing up for 400 games. Lowry is, at the risk of devolving into sports speak, the heart and soul of this team. He is the kind of player they’ve never really had at a position they’ve never had much to show for.

Lowry is the embodiment of Raptors confidence, it flows from him to the rest of the team. He’s lost, games and starting jobs. Bridges have been burned. Shots have been missed or not taken. What Lowry brings is not the passionate belief that the possession will work out differently, he understand the random nature of the universe too thoroughly. What he offers is the willingness to shake off misses, losses, and burnt bridges, to treat each new possession as the precious flower that it is. Another opportunity to get it right.

The Raptors are not finished. They will win the championship or they will be forcibly removed from the playoffs, there is no middle ground. Their eyes are wide open. They know the odds, their strengths and weaknesses. If they lose it will not be because they didn’t believe.

Of course, sometimes believing in yourself is still not enough.