FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 18th
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Picks May 18th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
The MLB schedule continues with a full slate of 15 games on Wednesday. The day starts early in Philadelphia where the the Miami Marlin’s Tom Koehler will throw the first pitch off the mound against Jeremy Hellickson and the Phillies. Three other games follow, shortly after, to total four games starting in the early afternoon. The remaining eleven games start after 7pm ET. Also, due to the rain-caused postponement on Monday, the Boston Red Sox will play a double-header today in Kansas City against the Royals. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:
- 1:05pm ET (Early Only)
- Marlins at Phillies (1:05pm ET)
- Twins at Tigers (1:10pm ET)
- Red Sox at Royals (2:15pm ET / First of double-header)
- Rangers at A’s (3:35pm ET)
- 1:05pm ET (All Day)
- 7:00pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers
Ian Kennedy (2:15pm ET) has the best value on the board tonight, at 4.8X. However, I’m nervous about two things with Ian. After his last start in New York against the Yankees, Kennedy only compiled 16 points, getting absolutely hammered by his old club. Also, Ian is facing a formidable Red Sox lineup, unstopped by most pitchers lately. So this feels like a bad play.
Chris Tillman (7:05pm ET) appears to be a best value option. Tillman is facing a decent Mariners lineup tonight, especially considering how hot Robinson Cano has been, to start the season. However, Tillman is also having a good season, and has been locked in lately. Year-to-date, Chris is averaging 37.3 PPG. That’s a fairly good outcome. But, over the last four starts Tillman is averaging 53.3 PPG, which is fantastic. Also, Chris’ salary is only $7,900. With a season value of 4.7X, second among all starting pitchers tonight, he’s already an attractive option. Over his last four starts Tillman has averaged 8 strikeouts per game, had a win in each game, and his ERA is plummeting on the season to 2.58. Chris Tillman is your better value option tonight.
Another good option, now a weekly occurrence, is Drew Pomeranz (10:10pm ET). We won’t hammer through all of the details on Drew, because if you’ve been following these articles all season, you know he remains consistently underrated by the FanDuel salary. Pomeranz salary has likely remained low because he’s pitching for a bad San Diego Padres team. However, after seven starts Drew has 4 wins, 51 K’s over 40 innings, and a very good 1.80 ERA. Pomeranz’s is averaging 42.4 PPG this season. His salary has finally climbed to a more expensive $9,000 but that still places him at a 4.7X value, just barely below Chris Tillman. Drew’s salary has climbed $5,000 this season, starting at a rock-bottom bargain of $4,000. This may be your last chance to get Pomeranz while he’s still somewhat affordable.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50.
Yan Gomes, C, (7:10pm ET) has been scolding hot lately. Over his last three games, Gomes has 4 hits 3 home runs, 7 RBI’s, and 3 runs. Over the last week, Yan averaged 19 PPG, second among all catchers. Gomes has a very reasonable salary at $2,700 and his 7X value is the best value among all of the daily lineup options at catcher.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, (7:10pm ET) recently moved down to the 5th spot in the Washington Nationals lineup after leaving many runners on base over several games this season. Ryan seems to be responding well. Zimmerman has 3 home runs and 6 RBI’s over the last seven games. Interestingly, one of those HR’s was an inside the park home run after Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton ran into each other in right center field. Over the last week, Ryan averaged 15.6 PPG, 4th among all first basemen. Zimmerman’s salary is a cheap $3,100 tonight giving us a 5X value over the last week. I look for Ryan to continue to fight for his spot in the lineup tonight.
Johnny Giavotella, 2B, (10:05pm ET) has a hot bat lately. Over his last five games, Johnny has 8 hits, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 5 runs, 2 RBI’s, 3 walks, and a stolen base. Giavotella is fighting for a starting role at second base for the Los Angeles Angels and appears to be winning it this week. Over the last seven days, Johnny averaged 12.3 PPG, 9th among a very good group of hitting second basemen this year. With a salary climbing to $2,900, but still very cheap, Giavotella gives us a decent 4.2X value.
Heading into the middle of May, Danny Valencia, 3B, (3:35pm ET) was without a home run. Over the last week Valencia hit 5 home runs, all 5 HR’s were in the series at Tampa Bay against the Rays. Danny’s weekly average is an incredible 26.6 PPG. Valencia’s salary is a cheap $2,900 providing a bargain 9.2X value.
Didi Gregorius, SS, (9:40pm ET) has been hot and cold this season, but lately has been more consistent. Over the last six games, Gregorius only had one zero point game. In the last seven games, Didi averaged 12.1 PPG, 9th among all shortstops. Gregorius still has a dirt-cheap salary of only $2,300 giving us a very good 5.3X value.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
We’ve talked about Adam Jones (7:05pm ET) and Lorenzo Cain (2:15pm ET) often lately and they continue to be hot. Jones is averaging 24.5 PPG over the last week and Cain is averaging 23.2 PPG. They also each have a very reasonable salary, $3,500 (7X value) and $3,400 (6.8X value) respectively. Until they consistently cool off or become over-priced, their value is too hard to ignore and they should be played in at least one lineup every night.
Two other really good, but cheaper, options are Matt Holliday (8:15pm ET) and Ryan Rua (3:35pm ET). With Shin Shoo Choo still on the disabled list for the next week Rua continues to take advantage of his playing time, averaging 16.1 PPG. Ryan’s salary is still a very cheap $2,500 giving us a very good 6.4X value. Holliday has been less consistent but had a couple of huge nights in L.A. against the Angels, totaling 3 home runs in the series. Matt also has a 16.1 PPG average and is slightly more expensive at $2,600, a 6.2X value. Holliday is a permanent option in the St. Louis Cardinals’ lineup.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.