MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 18
MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 18
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Wednesday gives us a multi-slate day as we have 4 early games which start at 1:05PM EST with an additional 12 games on the “main slate” starting off at 7:05PM EST.
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 250.5 | $ 8,445 | 24% | 76% | $ 3,319 | 7.16 |
| 5 Day | 270.4 | $ 8,067 | 23% | 77% | $ 3,367 | 7.73 |
| Prev Day | 302.4 | $ 10,700 | 31% | 69% | $ 3,038 | 8.64 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Top Starting Pitchers
Starting Pitchers
Drew Pomeranz ($9,000) versus San Francisco – No pitcher on today’s slate has averaged more points per start this season(42.4) than Pomeranz, however he is only the 5th highest priced pitcher on the main slate. Over the last 15 days, Pomeranz has stepped up his game averaging 51 points over his last two starts and putting up just under 6x value. Pomeranz has a top level strikeout rate of 25.7% however his opponent on Wednesday, the San Francisco Giants, whiffs at only a 17.8% rate which is second lowest of the teams in action. I expect the matchup and the lack of name recognition to leave Pomeranz lower owned than I believe his performance dictates. I love Pomeranz as a tournament play tonight as I expect some of the bigger “names” to take on the bulk of the ownership.
Francisco Liriano ($10,000) versus Atlanta – Liriano to me is the chalk cash game play tonight for a few very simple reasons – 1) He is the highest favorite of any starting pitcher, 2) He has the highest strikeout rate (26.3%) of any pitcher on the main slate and 3) He gets a matchup against Atlanta who has the lowest projected run total of any team AND strikes out at over a 25% clip. Liriano and “cash games” typically do not go hand in hand as his volatility and ability to put up duds (3 games this year with 15 points or less) make him more of a tournament play. However with the matchup tonight, it sets up very well for a solid outing and I believe you can deploy the Pirates lefty in all formats.
Next: Top Hitters/Stacks
Top Hitters/Stacks
Cameron Maybin ($2,300) – If you are playing the early slate, the Tigers have the highest projected run total and make for a great stack but one player I want to call out to readers today is Cameron Maybin. Maybin returned to the Tigers lineup, taking his spot back in CF and batting 7th while still at a bargain price. In his two games back, Maybin has averaged 18.4 points per game which is good for 8x value and until his price increases, makes for a great target in all formats.
Cubs stack against Jimmy Nelson – The Cubs have the highest projected run total on the main slate and although they sputtered offensively last night, we can expect a bounce back performance in a favorable spot tonight. Jimmy Nelson is giving up a solid 1.4 HR/9 innings which puts all the big bats in play for the Cubs, but what makes this matchup interesting to me is the stolen base upside the Cubs have in this matchup. The Brewers are giving up the second most stolen bases in the league, and no catcher gives up more steals than Jonathan Lucroy (28 on the year). Jimmy Nelson has struggled to hold runners on this year, as base runners are 9 for 12 in steals so far this season. Dexter Fowler ($4,200) and Jason Heyward ($3,200) make for a great mini stack in the outfield with their stolen base upside in this matchup and I have no issue pairing them with any of the big ticket Cubs hitters as part of a larger stack.
Juan Lagares ($2,200) – If you intend on stacking the Cubs and paying up at pitcher, you will need some value and I expect Juan Lagares to flourish tonight against Gio Gonzalez. With a lefty on the hill, I expect Lagares to get the start in CF and has great career numbers against Gio – 10 for 26 with 5 extra base hits.
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!