The Young Thunder – Age vs. Experience in the Conference Finals

There were a number of factors that led to the Thunder’s surprising Game 1 road victory over the Warriors on Monday night, not the least of which was head coach Billy Donovan’s decision to stick with playing two traditional bigs together. In an age of “small-ball” against the ultimate “small-ball” team, Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter, and Steven Adams helped defeat Golden State by attacking the boards and garnering second chance opportunities for the Thunder.

But rather than focus how Donovan rolled with the same jumbo lineups which crushed San Antonio let’s focus on how general manager Sam Presti has revamped this roster to allow such an occurrence. It’s easy to fall victim to the fallacy that because the trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka have been intact since 2009, the Thunder are aging. Those three have been the core of a franchise that has made the playoffs during 6 of the last 7 seasons, four of which saw them reaching at least the Western Conference Finals.

But this core three have more matured into their respective primes rather than aged. At the same time, Presti has supplemented the roster not with grizzled veterans to aid in deep playoff runs like he previously did with Kendrick Perkins, Derek Fisher and Caron Butler, but instead with high-upside, younger players. It’s longer view similar to what the Spurs did with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker in the late aughts and beyond. Over time, choosing this particular path will seemingly allow Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka to age gracefully by surrounding them with players that can eventually grow into larger roles.

While the below chart does not adjust for playing time, it does show how the supporting cast around Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka has evolved over time:

During the franchise’s trip to the 2012 NBA Finals, it was a whole new world for Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka[2. And The James Harden Future Trade.], as the team relied on Perkins and Fisher (sometimes too much) for the requisite “veteran presence”. But as the trio has gained experience and become veterans themselves, a larger premium has been placed on youngsters with upside that can slip into their roles immediately without making waves. Reggie Jackson unwillingness to do that was the reason he was shipped out.

Despite their core three each having at least six years of NBA experience, the Thunder are actually one of the youngest conference finalists in recent memory. To illustrate this, I looked at each conference finalist since 2006 and calculated the average playing time-weighted age. By this measure, the 2016 Thunder are the second youngest conference finalist since 2006. The only team younger was the 2011 version of Oklahoma City. The difference back then being that the most youthful players were their best ones. Sure, none of this takes into account or adjusts for the heavy mileage Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka have incurred over time, but a large part of the Thunder rotation being comprised of 24 and unders has a large effect on the calculation.

Youth leading to a championship is another story. To look at whether youth is a factor in eventual success, I looked at each conference finalists’ weighted age and graphed it against their SRS, a measure[2. Via Basketball-Reference.com.] adjusting average margin of victory for strength of schedule.

The above breaks neatly into four quadrants: above average age and SRS, above average age and below average SRS, and so on. The performance in the Conference Finals and beyond for each of these groups are detailed below:

Of course, 10 years is a small data set, so spotting “trends” in this data is risky. However, in recent times regular season strength (as measured by SRS) seems to mean much more in the Conference Finals while having more experience has proven more important in the Finals themselves.

Last season, the Warriors joined the 2009 Lakers as the only teams in the last ten seasons to win the NBA Finals with a playing-time weighted less than average. This season, both the Thunder and Warriors fall into that category with both also having a well above average SRS [1. In fact the two have the highest combined SRS for a Conference Finals matchup in this same ten-year period) while both Eastern Conference teams have a below average weighted age and below average SRS = not a great sign for the East whoever wins the respective semifinal rounds.