MLB Picks: FanDuel Economics May 30th

May 29, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; General view of the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins in the fourth inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /

Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Picks May 30th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends.

The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day with your FanDuel MLB picks!

We have a full slate of 15 MLB games scheduled this Memorial Day, Monday May 30th. The day is split with 10 games starting between 1pm-6pm ET and 5 games starting after 5pm ET. The first pitch will come from the Chicago White Sox’s Jose Quintana, in New York, against a struggling Matt Harvey and the Mets. This should be another memorable day for MLB fans. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:

1:10pm ET (Early Only)
1:10pm ET (All Day)
4:05pm ET (Afternoon Only)
7:05pm ET (Late)

Before we dive into the MLB picks for today’s value, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.

If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.

Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

May 18, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) pitches in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Pitchers

So far this season, we have focused on year-to-date statistics for pitchers, since they typically only pitch once per week. However, now that we’ve had more time to develop a greater body of work over the season, we’re going to move toward an every 30-day trend for pitchers, for your daily fantasy baseball picks. We’re also looking at anyone with three or more starts within the last 30 days.

Junior Guerra (2:10pm ET) continues to pitch well and remains one of the top value options at the pitcher position. We’ve focused on Junior over his last three starts and he remains a bargain. Guerra didn’t win his last outing in Atlanta against the Braves, but he still pulled in 33 points on a reasonable salary. Over the last month, Guerra averaged 36.6 PPG, 30th among all starting pitchers. Junior has a $7,000 salary today, again a cheap option for 35-40 points. Guerra also piled on 57 points against a very good Chicago Cubs team on May 19th. With a 5.2X value today, Junior should be one of your top considerations at home against the St. Louis Cardinals this afternoon.

Another strong value option is Dan Straily (4:10pm ET). Like Guerra, Straily has been a beacon of light on a struggling team and rotation, starting for the Cincinnati Reds. Dan has a 5.2X value on a 35.6 PPG average over the last 30 days, and is a cheap $6,900. However, I like Guerra over Staily for one basic reason, physics. While Straily has been hot lately and a select few pitchers have faired well in Colorado, I worry Dan can’t continue to do well against the Rockies today in the thin air. Home Runs have been piling up in Denver over the past several games. If you don’t like Guerra, I would fade Straily and look at our next option.

After struggling at times, in an up-and-down start to the season, Justin Verlander (9:05pm ET) has found his groove and is catching fire. Over his last four games, Justin piled up between 45-66 points each game. Verlander averaged 9.25 K’s during that span of time. Over the last month, Justin averaged 42.8 PPG. Get Verlander while he’s still cheap. With a $8,500 salary tonight against the the Angels in L.A., he’s bringing a 5X value to the mound. Verlander’s salary will likely become too expensive after tonight.

If you can’t wait for Verlander to pitch tonight, another decent value option is Jeff Samardzija (1:10pm ET). Samardzija and the Giants have been on fire lately. Even though Jeff has an expensive $10,700 salary, he still provides a 4.7X value with a ridiculous 50.6 PPG average over the last 30 days. Look for the Giants and Samardzija to stay hot against the Braves in Atlanta this afternoon.

Next: Value Hitters - INF

May 28, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Chase Utley (26) hits a grand slam home run against the New York Mets during the seventh inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters – INF

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50 among your daily fantasy baseball picks.

Buster Posey, C, (1:10pm ET) had a great time in Denver, piling on an average of 30.3 PPG. Posey is once again a great option in Atlanta against the Braves, with a 5.9X value, 2nd among all catchers starting at least 4 games in the past week. However, another intriguing option is Russell Martin, C, (7:07pm ET). Martin has been more inconsistent over the last seven days, compared to Posey. However, Russell also exceeded 40 points, twice, with multi-hit games in each and a total of 3 homes over those to games. Over the last week, Martin averaged 22.8 PPG, the most of all catchers. On a cheap $2,700 salary, Russell has a 8.4X weekly value heading into tonight’s game against the Yankees at home.

While Mike Napoli, 1B, (6:10pm ET) has struggled this season, he has been tremendous over his last six games compiling 3 HR’s, 9 RBI’s, 7 runs, 1 triple, and 2 stolen bases over that span of time. Napoli averaged 22 PPG over the last week, just below David Ortiz. With a cheap $3,400 salary early this evening, Mike has a wonderful 6.5X value at the first base position.

Chase Utley, 2B, (5:05pm ET) option quietly surging in value lately. Over the last week, Utley consistently averaged 20.3 PPG, not bad for the aging Dodgers second baseman. With a $3,600 salary this evening, Chase has a very good 5.6X value for us at the 2B spot in the lineup.

Yangervis Solarte, 3B, (4:10pm ET) returned from the disabled list (DL) on May 21st. After a quiet return, Solarte seems to be settling in at the plate and his numbers are quickly surging. Over the last week, Yangervis averaged 21.3 PPG, best among all third basemen. With a $3,500 salary heading into today’s game, Solarte provides a 6.1X bargain value.

Even with an expensive $3,900 salary, Jonathan Villar, SS, (2:10pm ET) is back atop the value board for shortstops. Over the last seven days, Jonathan averaged 22.8 PPG, the most of all shortstops, giving us a very good 5.8X value.

Next: Value Hitters - OF

May 27, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Minnesota Twins right fielder Miguel Sano (22) celebrates with left fielder Robbie Grossman (36) after Sano hit a solo home run against the Seattle Mariners during the second inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters – OF

In the outfield positions we have a few good options from some off-the-radar hitters.

While Chris Owings (4:10pm ET) isn’t making headline news each week, he’s quietly and consistently averaging 11.8 PPG the last seven days, a trend I’ve seen over the last month as well. Chris isn’t hitting a lot of home runs, 2 so far this season, but has a .297 batting average with 10 doubles, 4 triples, 20 runs, 17 RBI’s, and 7 stolen bases. For a very cheap $2,100 salary, that’s quite a bargain and a 5.6X value.

With Mike Moustakes (torn ACL) and Alex Gordon (wrist) each on the disabled list, Whit Merrifield (8:15pm ET) is getting more time at multiple positions for the Kansas City Royals. Merrifield is also getting quite comfortable at the dish lately. Over the last week, Whit averaged 14.6 PPG. With another cheap salary of only $2,600, he provides another 5.6X value in the OF position.

Miguel Sano (4:05pm ET) is a different story. With a $4,000 salary, Sano is a very expensive option at the outfield position. And while Miguel hasn’t had a stellar season this year, he hit 4 home runs over his last 4 games. In the last seven days, Sano averaged 19.3 PPG, the highest average of any outfielder playing more than two games in that span. So even though Sano is expensive and hasn’t started strong, he’s surging lately and provides a solid 4.8X value this afternoon.

To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.