The NBA’s best closers
Stephen Curry made so many big shots this year. Like, seriously, so…many…shots. Facing elimination in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals, in the biggest moment of the Golden State Warriors’ season, Curry went ahead and made one more. With 14 seconds left in the game, Curry banked in a running two-point basket over the outstretched arm of Oklahoma City Thunder big man, Serge Ibaka, extending the Warriors lead to 106-101 and putting the game out of reach for good.
Without a doubt, Curry is an amazing closer. But, is he the best in the league? Using the shot finder tool on Basketball-Reference, I determined the player from each NBA team who made the most field goals to tie or take the lead during the last six minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime in the 2015-16 regular season. These are the best closers in the league; the dudes who want the ball when the game is on the line. To compare how these 30 closers from around the NBA have performed in the most critical moments of the season, for each player, I quantified the share of his responsibility in clutch situations — the fraction of his team’s clutch baskets that the player made — and his efficiency — in terms of effective field goal percentage[1.(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA] — in these situations.
The player from each NBA team who made the most field goals to tie or take the lead during the last six minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime in the 2015-16 regular season; bubble size represents the number of made field goals (range: 5-23 FGs).
The closers with the heaviest workloads
Curry made 43 percent of the Warriors’ field goals to tie or take the lead in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime during their record-setting 73-9 regular season. That’s pretty amazing, but one other closer had even greater responsibilities in the clutch; LeBron James scored 46 percent of the Cleveland Cavaliers’ baskets in these end-game situations. It’s kinda funny, then, that it’s now “a thing” to accuse LeBron of deferring to his teammates too much when the game is on the line. He literally deferred less than any other player in the NBA. Interestingly, both Curry and James shoot a lot more in the clutch than they do during the rest of the game. Overall, Curry accounted for only 23 percent of the Warriors’ buckets for the entire season and James accounted for only 25 percent of the Cavaliers’. Both players seem to have mastered the art of involving their teammates in the action early in the game and taking over late, when it counts.
The most efficient closers
Curry is also among the most efficient closers in the league; he had an impressive effective field goal percentage of 71 percent on baskets to tie or take the lead in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime this year. That’s even more efficient than Curry was during the rest of the game, as he posted a 63 effective field goal percentage overall. Curry’s heavy workload in the clutch combined with his high efficiency in those moments meant that Curry made more of these field goals (23) than any other player in the league (as indicated by his bubble being the largest on the plot). Some other super-efficient closers this year were Bradley Beal (69 eFG%), Deron Williams (69 eFG%), Greg Monroe ( 72 eFG%), and Hollis Thompson (100 eFG%).
Some teams had few clutch moments
You can see in the plot that Philadelphia 76er, Hollis Thompson, had a small bubble; that’s because he made only five field goals to tie or take the lead in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. The fact that Thompson was still his team’s most productive scorer in the clutch just goes to show that the 76ers did not enjoy many clutch moments this year. Teams that win 10 games don’t usually tie or take the lead at the end of the fourth quarter.
Another sad sack team, the Phoenix Suns, didn’t have many clutch shots either. In fact, Eric Bledsoe was the team’s biggest clutch scorer, despite playing only 31 games in the regular season this year. Not surprisingly, injury-limited Bledsoe also had the smallest fraction of his team’s clutch baskets of any of the 30 closers.
On the flip side, one of the League’s best teams, the San Antonio Spurs, didn’t have many chances to tie or take the lead in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter either; but that’s because they were generally winning by a lot before they reached the end of the fourth quarter. As a result, Kawhi Leonard has a pretty small bubble in the center of the plot above.
The least efficient closers
The closers with the lowest effective field goal percentages when shooting to tie or take the lead in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime were New York Knick, Carmelo Anthony, and Houston Rocket, James Harden (34 eFG% for both). Of course, these stats are based on small sample sizes — 37 shots for Melo and 54 shots for Harden — but still, this sounds like “Hero Ball” at its worst. Point guards Chris Paul and Isaiah Thomas also shot under 40 percent in clutch situations this year.
Old closers and young closers
The 37-year-old Kobe Bryant turned in one last season as the Los Angeles Laker’s go-to-guy in the clutch. He went 9-for-19 on shots to tie or take the lead in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime for a respectable 63 eFG%. As discussed above, veteran Deron Williams was also very effective at the end of tight games. With LeBron taking his talents back to Cleveland, Dwyane Wade is back to being the No. 1 option to close out games for the Miami Heat in the twilight of his career.
On the other hand, some young guns are taking the reigns of their own teams. Rodney Hood hit the second most shots in the clutch of any closer (21 FGs) for the Utah Jazz. Bradley Beal’s tidy 69 eFG% in the clutch enabled him to lead the Washington Wizards in his own injury-shortened season. Victor Oladipo was the closer for the Orlando Magic and Andrew Wiggins was the closer for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Big closers
When I think of end game scenarios, I tend to imagine isolation dribble-drives from the top of the key. So, I expected most of the League’s best closers to be point guards, or at least, wing players who can create off the bounce. But, there were also many big men who were their teams’ closers this season. Six very big players led their team in field goals to tie or take the lead in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime: Al Horford, Brook Lopez, Andre Drummond, Zach Randolph, Greg Monroe, and Anthony Davis.
Tag-team closers
Several teams had more than one player vying for the title of closer, but no team had a tighter race than the Thunder; Russell Westbrook made 20 field goals to tie or take the lead in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime and his co-super-star, Kevin Durant, hit 19. Both players made about a quarter of the Thunders’ shots in these clutch scenarios. Intuitively, it seems like having two great closers would be better than having just one. This should give the Thunder flexibility and make their end-game sets more unpredictable. But, in practice, it may also create some friction over who should be taking the biggest shots of the game. At the end of Game 6, Durant and Westbrook traded off possessions trying to score in isolation. Neither was very successful.
In contrast, Curry cut the Thunder lead to one at 96-97 with his triple at 3:58 on the clock, he tied the game at 99-99 on his three-point shot with 2:47 to go, he scored again with 0:14 left to give the Warriors a five-point lead, and then he pitched in a few steals during the last ten seconds of the game; just for good measure. Talk about a CLOSER. Now we’ll see if Curry and the Warriors can close out the Thunder in a massive Game 7 on Monday.