2016 NBA Finals Preview: Warriors vs. Cavaliers

How spoiled we are: the Golden State Warriors are looking to cap a historic season with a title, and they’re facing a healthy Cleveland Cavaliers team led by LeBron james, who’s had a Bill Russell-esque streak of six straight finals appearances. There are probably a few stray complaints about how we’ve already seen these two teams before and how the Oklahoma City Thunder, or San Antonio Spurs, deserve to be in the Finals instead of Cleveland, but we have two of the best players in NBA history facing each other with a host of interesting role players[1. Stephen Curry, barring some catastrophic injury, is on the path to being one of the greatest players ever. All he needs is a few more quality seasons — few players had a season like the one he’s having now.]. This should be good basketball.

The New and Old Efficiency Kings

LeBron James used to be the king of efficiency, scoring with a high TS% despite a gargantuan role during his first stint with the Cavaliers and then reaching what appeared to be the ceiling for TS% for a high scorer with the Heat. But Stephen Curry crushed his best seasons — and everyone else’s in league history. What he did this year was unprecedented.

X-factor: Matthew Dellavedova

If you pay attention to the plus-minus family, you may have noticed Kyrie Irving does not rate well and his modest backup, the Australian pest, usually has a better rating. That may seem strange, but over two of the past three seasons Cleveland has played better with Matthew in the lineup, not Kyrie. That’s not common for bench players for a variety of reasons, and even after a few adjustments the disparity is still there. In fact, using NBAWOWY.com, over the past two seasons (including the playoffs) when LeBron James and Kevin Love are on the court, the team has been better with Dellavedova, not the All-Star Irving. And against a scoring point guard like Stephen Curry, the Aussie may be even more important.

Table: per 100 possession team ratings, CLE: 2015 and 2016

Series Odds

There are many finals predictions out there, including statistically-informed ones from ESPN’s BPI (GSW with a 75% chance) and FiveThirtyEight’s system (GSW with a 72% chance.) Mine is unique in that I use a team rating framework similar to basketball-reference’s SRS except that a handful of individual players are variables too — meaning you have Golden State in there as well as Golden State *with* Stephen Curry[2. If you’re wondering, Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Marc Gasol, and Kyrie Irving were the variables. Durant, surprisingly, rated above Curry. Leonard did too, but only by a hair. The Grizzlies were modestly better with Gasol, while the Cavaliers were only a hair better. The Clippers, meanwhile, were worse with Griffin.]. This is then blended with a projected RPM rating.

The Warriors — no surprise — are the favorites here. While a five game victory is the most likely result, it’s more likely the series goes longer than five games. The fully functioning healthy Cavaliers are an elite team, and the Warriors broke 72 games not from sheer dominance but also exceptional clutch performance — and that’s not as stable as something like point differential. That’s why the Warriors haven’t been overwhelming favorites against great teams. In fact, their net rating in clutch situations, as defined by stats.NBA.com, has been higher in the playoffs so far, and that coupled with Stephen Curry’s renewed vigor could lead to the Warriors outperforming their already high expectations. One reason they do so well in the clutch is the death lineup, which is fully unleashed in such situations, and that lineup matches up well with Cleveland — Love and Frye can be checked by smaller guys. There are no guarantees here, and the Cavs still have a chance, but some of the numbers you see might be underrating the Warriors.