Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the FanDuel MLB Picks June 3rd edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel point-per-game (PPG) trends.
The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay-day with your FanDuel MLB picks!
As we typically see each Friday, we’re back to a full slate of 15 MLB games. Each game is the first or second game of a new series, which is always exciting. Also, because the Cubs are in Chicago, we have one afternoon game, 2:20pm ET against the young pitching prospect Archie Bradley and the Arizona Diamondbacks. All other games start after 7pm ET. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:
- 2:20pm ET (All Day)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the FanDuel MLB picks for today’s value, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your FanDuel MLB picks feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s FanDuel MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers
So far this season, we have focused on year-to-date statistics for pitchers, since they typically only pitch once per week. However, now that we’ve had more time to develop a greater body of work over the season, we’re going to move toward an every 30-day trend for pitchers, for your daily fantasy baseball picks. We’re also looking at anyone with three or more starts within the last 30 days.
Nathan Eovaldi (7:05pm ET) struggled at the start of the season for the New York Yankees. He was getting lots of strikeouts (K’s), between 6-8 each game. However, Nathan’s ERA was between 4.4-9 for most of April and into May. Eovaldi only had 2 wins over his first 6 starts. However, Nathan is now on a roll. Eovaldi won his last 5 straight games. His ERA has gradually climbed down to 3.71 on the season, now after 10 starts. Over the last month, Nathan consistently had a 42 PPG average. With a reasonable $8,300 salary tonight, Eovaldi is our best value option at pitcher, with a 5.1X value.
We’ve discussed Chris Tillman (7:05pm ET) recently, and he’s sticking around on the value board. Tillman has had a more consistent season than Eovaldi. But, over the last month Chris has similar stats, compiling an average of 42.3 PPG. Also like Eovaldi, Tillman is a reasonable salary at $8,500, providing a great 5X value tonight.
If you’re thinking of doing an ‘All Day’ play to get in on the D-Backs v Cubs action, John Lackey (2:20pm ET) is your best value option. It’s tempting to pick Archie Bradley. He’s been a hot pitching prospect ‘name’ for over two years now, but he’s also lacked (pardon the pun) consistency and has been up and down from the minors during that time. Over the last month, John’s averaged 43.8 PPG. He’s a little pricer, at $9,600. But you’re still getting a solid 4.6X value and you get to watch the afternoon game with a little more excitement. Although, then you have to wait a few hours to see how the rest of your lineup plays out.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50 among your daily fantasy baseball picks.
Jonathan Lucroy, C, (7:05pm ET) and Buster Posey, C, (8:15pm ET) have been very hot lately. If you can afford to fit them into your lineup, do it. However, I sometimes struggle to afford them, especially if I’m taking a pricey pitcher today. Assuming Bryan Holaday, C, (8:05pm ET) is behind the plate tonight, he’s a much better value option for us at catcher. Holaday has a hot bat lately and appears to be getting more time in the lineup for the Rangers. Over the last week, Bryan averaged 15.9 PPG, 3rd among all catchers. And on a cheaper $2,800 salary, Holaday is a 5.7X value. I’ve noticed Bryan’s salary is starting to climb quickly, so use him while he’s a bargain.
Mike Napoli, 1B, (7:10pm ET) doesn’t have a great seasonal average, .235, but he’s certainly shown some power with 12 HR’s, 39 RBI’s and 35 Runs. Over the last week, Mike is absolutely smoking the baseball, averaging 18.9 PPG. Napoli is still reasonably cheap at $3,400, but his salary is starting to climb. With a tremendous 5.9X week-long value tonight, Napoli is your best value option at first base.
Jurickson Profar, 2B, (8:05pm ET) is a young prospect for the Texas Rangers. Profar was pulled out of the minors to sub in at times with Rougned Odor‘s inactivity due to his suspension. Odor’s suspension ends Saturday. However, in the meantime, Profar is showing a flash of brilliance. Jurickson averaged 12.3 PPG over the last week, not bad for a short-term sub. His salary climbed $300, recently, to $2,500, but that’s still a very cheap option. Profar is an intriguing 4.9X value at the second base position, very likely getting your points and allowing you to afford an expensive pitcher or power hitter.
Danny Valencia, 3B, (8:10pm ET) is quietly having a great season this year. Hitting a .346 batting average with 8 home runs, 21 RBI’s, and 23 Runs over 36 games won’t keep him quiet for long. Over the last seven days, Danny averaged 18.6 PPG, 2nd among all third basemen and behind only Kyle Seager. Valencia is still a reasonable $3,600 salary, so he’s giving us a great 5.2X value tonight.
I just talked about Jonathan Villar, SS, (7:05pm ET) yesterday, so I won’t re-hash all of the details. However, Villar is still a wonderful value at 5.4X tonight, and I’m going to continue to roll with Villar until he disappoints or becomes too expensive.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
The Diamondbacks picked up the contract for the 33-year-old Michael Bourn (2:20pm ET) in the middle of May. The veteran has almost immediately earned playing time and is becoming a consistent figure in the D-backs lineup. Over the last week, Michael averaged 18 PPG, 13th among all outfielders. With a very cheap $2,500, he’s quite a bargain right now. With a 7.8X value this afternoon in Chicago against the Cubs, Bourn is a bargain to consider if in the D-backs lineup yet again.
Lonnie Chisenhall (7:10pm ET) showed flashes of greatness last year. After being in and out of the Cleveland Indians’ lineup, for various reasons, throughout the season, Chisenhall seems to be finding his focus at the plate. Over the last week, Lonnie averaged 15.5 PPG, not off the charts but very solid. When you consider Chisenhall’s cheap $2,700 salary and 5.7X value, Lonnie is clearly a great value option and will allow you to use more salary to spend heavily on a consistently great player, while still getting 10-20 points.
If you have salary to burn at this point, and you should, Mookie Betts (7:10pm ET) has been absolutely on fire and is worth every $100. Over the last week, Betts averaged 24.9 PPG, the most of not only all outfielders, but also all regularly playing hitters. Mookie is expensive with a salary of $4,700. But you’re still getting a 5.5X value and with a ceiling of 63 points and floor of 12 points over the last 5 games, he’s worth it.
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To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
Best of luck tonight daily fantasy baseball gamers! Make sure to check lineups as they are announced before locking in your FanDuel MLB Picks!