MLB Lineups: FanDuel Economics June 16
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the FanDuel MLB Lineups June 16th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel point-per-game (PPG) trends.
The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay-day with your FanDuel MLB lineups!
With 10 teams taking off on Thursday, the MLB schedule only has 10 games slated. Three games start in the early or mid-afternoon time-frame, followed but the remaining seven games in the evening. The first pitch will come from Dan Straily at 12:10pm in Atlanta, where the Cincinnati Reds will taking on Matt Wisler and the Braves. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:
- 12:10pm ET (All Day)
- 12:10pm ET (Early Only)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the FanDuel MLB lineups for today’s value, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your FanDuel MLB lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s FanDuel MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers
So far this season, we have focused on year-to-date statistics for pitchers, since they typically only pitch once per week. However, now that we’ve had more time to develop a greater body of work over the season, we’re going to move toward an every 30-day trend for pitchers, for your daily fantasy baseball lineups. We’re also looking at anyone with three or more starts within the last 30 days.
After developing an incredible career, and into one of the leagues best pitchers, CC Sabathia (8:10pm ET) struggled in each of his last three seasons, for the New York Yankees. However, the veteran, and former 1st round draft pick of the Cleveland Indians in 1998, appears to be resurrecting his career in the 2016 season. After 10 starts, Sabathia is 4-4 with 49 K’s over 59 innings and 10 starts. Also, CC whittled his ERA down to a very good 2.28, top 5 in the American League. Over the last 30 days, and after his last 5 games, Sabathia averaged 38.4 PPG, top 25 among all pitchers. With a very reasonable $7,200 salary tonight, and 5.3X value, CC is the best pitching value option on the board. However, if you’re willing to spend some more, let’s take a look at our next best value option.
Justin Verlander (8:15pm ET) continues to roll, his fantastic season, into the summer of 2016. Like Sabathia, Verlander has struggled, at times, over the last couple of seasons. And also like CC, Justin appears to be resurrecting his career. Verlander is 6-5, but won 4 of his last 5 starts. Justin has fanned 90 over 86 innings, and has a decent 3.77 ERA. Over the last 30 days, Verlander has been particularly hot. Averaging 49.4 PPG over the last month, Justin is 5th among all starting pitchers, just behind Max Scherzer and ahead of Stephen Strasburg, not bad company. Verlander is more expensive than Sabathia, at $10,000 tonight, but that still gives us a 4.9X value, which is 7th among all starting pitchers over the last 30 days, and our second best value option of the day.
James Paxton (1:10pm ET) is an intriguing option this afternoon. Paxton got his first start on June 1st after being called up from AAA for the Seattle Mariners. During his first start, in San Diego against the Padres, James was shelled in a loss, but still struck out 7. James seemed to calm down in his next two starts, each in Seattle, against the Indians and Rangers, but still compiled 17 strikeouts over the two game period. Paxton’s velocity and high strikeout ratio is turning him into a valuable fantasy option. Over the last month, totaling his 3 starts, James averaged 39 PPG. With a reasonable $8,500 salary, that’s a 4.6X value and 13th among all starting pitchers. Paxton is a risky play, but with his strikeout ratio he’s likely worth it, and may not be heavily owned today.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50 among your daily fantasy baseball lineups.
Russell Martin, C, (7:05pm ET) continues his June surge, after a terrible start to 2016. Martin had a fantastic four day series in Toronto against the Baltimore Orioles, and continued his hot streak against the Phillies. Over the last week, Martin averaged 18.9 PPG, the most of any catcher starting at least 4 games in the last week. With a reasonable $3,100 salary tonight, Martin is by far the best value option at catcher, a 6.1X value.
Everyone knows Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, (7:05pm ET) has a ton of power, but he sputtered out the gate this year. Lately, Encarnacion has been crushing the baseball, hitting 4 home runs and 9 RBI’s in his last 4 games. Over the last week, Edwin averaged 25.1 PPG, easily the most of any first basemen. Even though Encarnacion is quite expensive, at $4,200, that’s still your best first basemen value at 6.0X. We can find a way to afford him today.
I tried to find a cheaper value option at second base, but Ian Kinsler, 2B, (8:15pm ET) was too hard to ignore. Kinsler hit 3 HR’s and 9 RBI’s over his last 4 games. In the last seven days, Ian averaged 19.9 PPG, catching fire this week and continuing to dominate at the plate this season. Unfortunately, again, Kinsler is an expensive $4,200 option, but that’s still a solid 4.7X value, and a bargain. However, pairing Encarnacion and Kinsler may be difficult to do.
Josh Donaldson, 3B, (7:05pm ET) is on fire right now, and if you can afford him ($4,300), play him. For a cheaper value option, consider Pedro Alvarez, 3B, (7:10pm ET). Alvarez has been a hit or miss play his entire career, as he typically strikes out, but can also surprise you with a home run or two in a game. However, since the start of June, Pedro seems to be locking in at the plate, and has become more consistently powerful at the plate, hitting 4 HR’s in the first 12 days of the month. Alvarez averaged 19.8 PPG over the last week second only to Donaldson. With a much cheaper $2,800 salary and a very good 7.1X value, Alvarez is certainly a strong value option.
For more on this position, take a look at a deeper-dive into the 3B position, for FanDuel MLB.
Danny Espinosa, SS, (10:10pm ET) has not been consistent at the plate for most of his career. He also has hit a low average, but has show tremendous power at times. Lately, Espinosa has locked in at the dish, hitting double-digit FanDuel points in 6 of his last 7 games. Over the last week, ‘Espy’ averaged 19.2 PPG, 2nd only to Xander Bogaerts. With a reasonable $3,100 salary, Danny is a 6.2X value deal.
For more on this position, take a look at a deeper-dive into the SS position, for FanDuel MLB.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
Jayson Werth (10:10pm ET) has been scorching the baseball lately. Werth has double-digit FanDuel points in 7 of his last 10 games, including a walk-off RBI single, off the wall, against the Cubs yesterday. Jayson had a rough couple of season for the Nationals lately, but like the rest of the team, he seems to be finding his groove this year. Over the last week, Werth averaged 17.9 PPG, tied for 6th among all outfielders. Jayson’s salary is starting to climb daily, and is now $3,600. But that’s still a 5X value. Play Werth while he’s either hot, or cheap.
Joc Pederson (10:10pm ET) had an up-and-down start to the season so far. However, Pederson is coming off two good series, one in San Francisco and the other in Arizona. Over the last week, Joc averaged 16 PPG. Pederson has a reasonable $3,300 salary tonight and is a very good 4.8X value tonight. I’m looking for Pederson to continue his June surge at home against the Brewers.
Kevin Pillar (7:05pm ET) is having a great June so far, hitting .315 with 3 home runs, 7 RBI’s, and 9 runs so far. Over the last seven days, Pillar averaged 15.1 PPG, including 2 home runs over his last 3 games. Kevin is the cheapest value option among outfielders, at only $3,100. With a 4.9X value, I love Pillar’s value again tonight at Philadelphia, against the Phillies.
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To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
Best of luck today daily fantasy baseball gamers! Make sure to check lineups as they are announced before locking in your FanDuel MLB lineups!