A Wide Expanse: The 2016 NBA Finals MVP Race

The NBA Finals MVP is a mythic award — the basketball world attaches a lot of meaning to championships and there’s an idea of a single, righteous warrior who makes it happen. Michael Jordan’s legend is inextricably tied to his six finals MVPs. It’s the superstar’s ultimate single player award, yet there’s a long list of second-tier stars and even guys who are arguably role players who have won too — from Jo Jo White to Andre Iguodala. This is partially the effect of giving an award for a single series instead of the entire playoffs; the latter would certainly make more sense. But we have a Finals MVP, and the field is wide open. Who’s going to win?

I’ve studied voting patterns before and used box score stats for some quantitative backing. With a basic metric like game score and a few adjustments, it’s better than guessing blind, but human voting patterns require more information. Updating the model, 38 out of 47 Finals MVPs aligned with the numbers[1. The disagreements occur last year as Stephen Curry had the “best” stats, Magic in 1988, Larry Bird in 1981, Gus Williams in 1979, Elvin Hayes in 1978, Dave Cowens in 1976, Walt Frazier in 1973 and 1970, and, surprisingly, John Havlicek in 1969. Defensive, team-first guys like Andre Iguodala, Wes Unseld, and Bill Russell are hard to quantify with basic stats.]. Narratives drive these awards, like when Willis Reed won in 1970 despite missing a game. And, of course, we’ve collectively changed the definition of this award to best performance on the winning team. It’s the single greatest factor and nearly makes it impossible to win without being on the right team.

Thus, I can sketch out a simple path here — if the Cavaliers win the series, LeBron James will win the award; if they lose, there are at least five guys who have a chance at winning. LeBron hasn’t been perfect, and his defense has lagged at times, but his basic stats look the best out of anyone and that usually garners media attention — he’ll just need another supernatural game if they lose.

Stephen Curry is having the quietest 30 USG%/60 TS% finals series in recent memory. He’s been plagued by turnovers and inconsistency, but, like LeBron, could catapult to the top of the list with a huge game. Draymond Green would be the likely leader at this point, but he missed a game due to a suspension. Klay Thompson’s scoring hasn’t been more impressive than Curry’s, but his defense is more respected and he’s had his moments. Finally, Andre Iguodala has a good chance at a second finals MVP, which would make him the first non-Hall of Famer to win multiple times[2. I assume he won’t be in the Hall, although I’d argue he’s a better player and more impressive than a few guys like Jo Jo White — the Celtics could have a wing devoted to their role players who would not have been Hall of Famers on other teams. Cedric Maxwell is the only non/likely-Hall of Famer who’s won, depending on how you feel about the chances of younger guys like Chauncey Billups and Kawhi Leonard.].

The table below is a summary of the odds I have so far at the likely Finals MVP winner based on who will win the series. For total odds, I used my own basic series numbers; Golden State has an 86.6 percent at winning so LeBron’s odds are closer to the 6.6 percent figure than the 63.8 percent one. Curry heads the list due to all his activity on offense — he’s the leading scorer on the likely victor. That might surprise people, but his titanic expectations from the regular season have clouded some of his value so far. Klay Thompson is second, which is, again, due to scoring. LeBron actually has a decent shot at winning even if his team loses, which is rare. Last year, he almost broke that Jerry West threshold with a voting panel with four in his favor and seven against. Draymond Green’s odds are fairly low, but this is also only through five games; with a six or seven game series that one missed game will be less of a penalty. Some of the betting odds I’ve seen have actually been favorable for him. And finally, Kyrie Irving’s most recent game gave him some pretty stats that would make him a darkhorse contender, but Cleveland is LeBron’s team so I think that’s unlikely.

2016 finals MVP odds (split by which team wins)

You probably noticed there are a lot of zeroes in the column for the Golden State players if Cleveland wins. Simply put, if your team loses and your individual stats don’t dwarf every player on the winning side, you have no chance. These stats will morph and change based on Game 6and beyond, however.

I put together this box score model for historical purposes, as the information we have from the 1970’s and before is limited. Box score stats understand so little about the game that some of the results are laughable, and there are a lot of subtleties people latch onto like Iguodala’s sage defense of LeBron or Draymond’s defensive versatility. But there’s one truth in the results above — this Finals MVP is wide open and it has historic implications for several guys, as Stephen Curry, climbing quickly up the all-time ladder, needs that feather in his cap; Andre Iguodala’s career would be viewed more favorably with a second; LeBron James could be vindicated to some degree after losing several times in the Finals; and for anyone else their name would be historically preserved.

It’s only a silly award, but once it’s handed out history and our perception of the Finals will change.