2016 NBA Draft: A comprehensive(ish) guide

The 2016 NBA Draft begins this evening at 7:30 PM EST, a dramatic distribution of talent and a televised spectacle unlike any other. To prepare for this huge night, I offer this comprehensive(ish) guide including thoughts on some of the big storylines and links to many of our FanSided NBA Draft resources to help you prepare.

Please enjoy.

Ben Simmons: Best fit or best player available?

Much of the mystery has already been taken out of the top of the 2016 NBA Draft, as the Philadelphia 76ers have reportedly told Ben Simmons that they will take him with the No. 1 overall pick. Simmons — a 6-10 power forward with elite ball-handling and passing skills — is not without his flaws. Questions persist about his potential as a shooter, his attitude and effort level, and his inability to single-handedly carry his LSU team to respectability. Still, he is almost universally considered the most talented player in this draft.

For Philadelphia, the decision, which they’ve apparently already made, was between selecting the best player available or the player who fit their current needs. The 76ers have taken frontcourt players at the top of each of the last three drafts — Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, and Jahlil Okafor. Another of their first round picks, Dario Saric, is likely to join the team for the first time this season and could further crowd their frontcourt rotation. Although Noel, Embiid, and Okafor each have unique strengths and weaknesses, there is plenty of overlap and very little evidence that any combination of them is workable longterm.

Simmons presents that tantalizing passing and playmaking ability but also the same sorts of duplication with the existing rotation. Meanwhile, the 76ers will be passing on Brandon Ingram — a wing with terrific defensive potential, an excellent shooting stroke, and the versatile offensive skills to become a very good perimeter scorer (all things Philadelphia desperately needed last season).

These two approaches — drafting for fit or for best player available — each have their pros and cons. Actually finding the best player available is complicated enough in it’s own right — Jeff Feyerer of Nylon Calculus found that over the past 15 years, just 8.7 percent of lottery picks were the best player available at that slot. Under Sam Hinkie, the 76ers appeared to be passionate adherents of the best player available approach which is ostensibly one of the reasons they have look to enter next year with three lottery picks in their frontcourt who can’t actually be on the court together.

The problem with the fit approach is that it assumes environmental stasis. Layne Vashro, also of Nylon Calculus, explored this idea last season and arrived at this basic thesis — if you’re picking at the top of the lottery your roster probably isn’t very good, why pick a player who fits on a roster that you’re going to be dramatically overhauling anyway? In the case of the 76ers, even if they had decided on Ingram (or have a change of heart tomorrow night), they will still likely be looking to trade one or both of the Okafor/Noel pairing. Even in a dramatically optimistic assessment, they’re 3-4 years away from being a top-tier playoff team, which means more lottery picks and more offseasons to woo free agents. Assuming that anyone is the “missing piece” of this puzzle is missing the point.

It may seem that taking Simmons is just more of the same for the Philadelphia 76ers, blindly worshipping at the altar of talent and ignoring everything else but the value of an asset. But from a team-building approach, best player available makes a lot of sense, even if makes things messier right now.

All the news that’s fit to print

We have some incredible NBA Draft experts working in the FanSided Network, particularly at our specialty site, Upside and Motor which focuses on the NBA Draft, the NBA D-League and the youthful side of basketball. Those experts have been working frantically over the past few weeks to polish up scouting reports and assemble handy guides to get you ready for the draft. If you’re looking for detailed information on any particular prospect, check out the Upside and Motor big board, with links to all player scouting reports.

If you already know what holes your team will be looking to plug on draft night and are just looking for some help on where to focus your attention, check out these handy guides on the best players available in different skill categories and talent tiers.

Related Story: NBA Draft: Best big men

If you just want a little background knowledge to help you not look foolish on draft night, check out this Style Guide to make sure you’re dressed for the occasion, and this list of the hardest names to pronounce so you don’t stumble in draft night conversation.

And of course, follow Upside and Motor on Twitter (@UpsideMotor) and Facebook to keep up with all the happenings tomorrow night.

Stats and scouts

When it comes to the NBA Draft, the sheer volume of different opinions on each player can be deafening. Everyone has a take and it can be hard to separate signal from noise, particularly when it comes to the difference between how statistical models and traditional scouts view major prospects.

To The Mean has been helpful enough to collate ranks from popular mock drafts and statistical models for the past few seasons, a useful illustration of these differences in opinion. For example, what do we make of Michigan State’s Deyonta Davis, ranked No. 3 by Andrew Johnson’s PAWS-RSCI model and No. 16, the last pick in the lottery, in Chad Ford’s latest top 100?

To The Mean currently includes four different traditional scouting rankings — Draftexpress, Dean Demakis, Chad Ford, and NBADraft.net — and a slew of statistical models. The graph below looks at the top 30 players by the consensus of those four scouting rankings. It then compares how they are ranked by the consensus of the two statistical models (Kevin Pelton’s and Andrew Johnson’s) that include international prospects.

The players liked more by scouts tend to be those characterized as being “raw” or having a “high upside.” For example, where the mock draft ranks for Jaylen Brown average out to No. 7, the statistical models average out to have him ranked as the No. 45 prospect in this draft. Marquese Chriss, Dejounte Murray, Deandre Bembry, and Skal Labissiere — all prospects whose appeal revolves in large part around athletic tools and potential for growth — are others that are viewed much more highly by scouts than the stats.

This makes sense. Although many statistical models include things like physical measurements and athletic testing from the NBA Draft Combine, they also tend to lower their expectations, accounting for the inherent variance between ceiling and floor for players who have NBA-level athleticism without yet demonstrating NBA-level skill.

On the other side, we find players like Jakob Poeltl, Tyler Ulis, Denzel Valentine, and Diamond Stone — all of whom have strong statistical track records with thing things like steals, rebounds, and scoring efficiency, but significant questions about one or more physical attributes.

Both approaches have had their hits and misses in the past. Including more information into decision-making processes usually improves outcomes, and a big part of that information is understanding the inherent biases of each approach.

An evolving league

The NBA Draft is an infusion of talent to the league and the trends in selection and player valuations can be an interesting window into how the league is changing and how organizations are choosing to prepare for the future as well as the present.

Despite what happened in the NBA Finals, the Golden State Warriors still seem to represent the future of the NBA, at least in that finding a dynamite three-point shooter and a versatile, switchable, play-making forward seems like a more realistic path to success than finding another LeBron James.

In a media Q&A last Friday, ESPN’s Chad Ford talked about the evolving league and how that’s affecting this year’s draft.

"I think the other note is just to watch the trends in the NBA. Guys that can play multiple positions, guys that can shoot the basketball, guys that can pass the basketball, including bigs, and guys that can defend, that is what teams are really looking for now. Low post scoring doesn’t seem to be that big of an attractive feature anymore. Guys that are just able to create their own shot off the dribble but can’t shoot, those guys are also not particularly doing well in these workout processes.Every year it’s trendy, and right now everybody is looking at the Warriors, and they’re saying we want players like the players that the Warriors have, whether it’s Draymond Green or Steph Curry or Klay Thompson or Andre Iguodala. That is what we want, and so you’re going to see draft decisions that are going to reflect that, I think, throughout the draft, and guys that might have had a really good college career sliding because they lack some of those key components, and guys that maybe have not had as great a college career, like someone like Patrick McCaw at UNLV or DeAndre Bembry out of St. Joseph’s rising in the draft because they have some of those coveted skills."

Ford mentioned McCaw and Bembry, both rising sleeper candidates. But for me, the most obvious litmus tests for how much teams are going to buy into the Warriors’ formula are Buddy Hield and Jaylen Brown. Both players are generally regarded as lottery picks but both also seem to have fairly wide ranges in where they are projected to end up.

Hield is definitively not Stephen Curry. He’s not a point guard, he doesn’t have Curry’s collegiate track record as a penetrator or playmaker, and there are some legitimate concerns about how well he can hold up defensively. However, he also just finished one of the most remarkable shooting seasons the NCAA has seen, doing a fair impression of Curry’s ability to defy defensive pressure and maintain absurd accuracy despite the context of the shot. If a team sincerely believes they need to find themselves a facsimile of Curry, even a worse one, Hield is the guy.

As far as a Draymond Green impersonator, Jaylen Brown would seem to be the most likely candidate. He has a similar physical profile, is incredibly athletic, and has the potential to play a similar defensive role (even if he didn’t display the same kind of vicious, half-crazed effort that defines Green). He’s also a much worse offensive prospect than Green — who was both a consistent shooter and reliable playmaker in college. Brown was not really either of those things and his ability to draw fouls was really his only demonstrable offensive skill.

Every player offers both strengths and flaws, where they are selected is a reflection of how GMs work out the individual calculus of those two factors. Where Brown and Hield are selected will likely be a reflection of how they are evaluated, but also how the current state of the league changes the value of their particular skills sets.

Other thoughts

Make me an offer

With the Sixers apparently locked on Simmons and reports that the Los Angeles Lakers will be selecting Brandon Ingram second unless a deal emerges, the entire rest of the draft seems to hinge on the Boston Celtics. The worst kept secret in the league is how hard they’ve been shopping the No. 3 pick but haven’t managed to find a workable deal. If something materializes before or during the draft, it will likely be something that significantly alters the power structure of the league as they’ve been pursuing top-tier players — your Kevin Loves, Paul Millsaps, and DeMarcus Cousins’.

If Boston keeps the pick, they’re selecting right at the point where things get muddy. If they were to pick Dragan Bender then the cascade behind them becomes frontcourt guys who are either mostly upside (Chriss, Brown, Skal Labissiere) or fairly limited in one way or another (Jakob Poeltl, Henry Ellenson, Domantas Sabonis). The other option they’ll be leaving behind are the backcourt trio of Kris Dunn, Hield, and Jamal Murray. Dunn is a fantastic defensive prospect with questions about the reliability of his shooting and offensive decision-making. Hield and Murray are both offensive prospects with defensive questions marks.

Essentially, there are no easy answers after the first two picks. Once Boston starts things rolling, the choices are going to get hard in a hurry.

Nobody puts the Kings in a corner

One of the strangest twists in this NBA Draft season has been the Sacramento Kings (who hold the No. 8) and their inability to get any top prospects to come in for a workout. The rumblings are that several agents have advised their clients not to work out for Sacramento because of their consistent track record of organizational chaos. It’s not like the Kings haven’t made their own bed in this situation, but this feels like something a new — a dangerous precedent that also puts the Kings in a horrible position. Draft a lesser talent that you’ve actually seen? Or pick someone who you not only haven’t worked out, but also really doesn’t want to come to Sacramento?

Trade me please

Trade season kicked off yesterday with two separate and fairly significant deals. The Indiana Pacers sent George Hill to the Utah Jazz, who sent the No. 12 pick to the Atlanta Hawks, who sent Jeff Teague back to Indiana. Then the New York Knicks sent Jerian Grant, Jose Calderon, and Robin Lopez to the Chicago Bulls for Derrick Rose. The second deal doesn’t have really have any obvious effects on this year’s draft, other than the Bulls likely looking for a point guard with the No. 14 pick but that was assumed anyway.

Most of the mocks drafts I’ve seen today have the Hawks taking a big man with the No. 12 pick which, along with the fact that they traded their veteran point guard, could be a signal that they expect Al Horford to sign elsewhere and are preparing for a rebuild around youth.

Guys I like

In no particular order: Petr Cornelie (athletic seven-footer who shoots threes), Domantas Sabonis (what Tyler Hansbrough was supposed to be), Furkan Korkmaz (the best name in the draft, by far), Denzel Valentine (I really miss Brandon Roy), Jaylen Brown (I think there’s something there), Gary Payton II (Tony Allen II), Kay Felder (if he was 6-2 he’d be a lottery pick).

Guys who make me nervous

Marquese Chriss (Stromile Swift broke my heart and Tyrus Thomas scattered the pieces over the Atlantic Ocean), Malachi Richardson (guys from Syracuse look less shiny in the NBA), Taurean Prince (the next Jae Crowder? Or the next Sam Young?), Tyler Ulis (Augustin, D.J.).

Where do I turn for key live draft analysis?

We’ll have our live draft tracker here at FanSided, sharing picks and analysis as they’re made. Also, I’ll be doing live GIF grades, pick-by-pick at my Twitter account @HickoryHigh. It will be fun, I promise:

via GIPHY

Find more NBA Draft content at our FanSided NBA Draft hub.

Home/NBA