The NBA draft is upon all of us, and we’re all about to be bombarded with hyperbolic draft language and a deluge of information. We’re going to hear about the extreme length of raw players and how certain guys are supposedly too small for their respective positions. But when should we be concerned about certain measurements? And what does it mean for the top prospects? To make a little bit more sense of the storm ahead, I’ve compiled data and a few graphs of key measurements you’ll hear repeated during the draft: height (with shoes), wingspan, and standing reach.
For the data, I used the new draft section at stats.NBA.com along with height from basketball-reference.com. Also, I used NylonCalculus’s own position data estimated from play-by-play data; thus, I’m looking at where guys actually play when they’re on the court, compiling everything by minutes. It’s not about how many players are listed at center at a certain height; it’s about how much NBA time was given to players at a certain height. Unfortunately, draft combine data does not cover every active NBA player because some were drafted before the data was available and some were measured, for whatever reason, at other various combines[1. I don’t have any other combines listed in the data. Some of those sources have wide-ranging results from the official ones.]. I’ve dealt with this every season I’ve tracked position measurements, and there’s no perfect solution. But there are enough players covered that one can get a sense of the typical range for NBA players, and that’s the primary goal of this little project.
Point Guards
While the talk of the league is focused on small-ball, larger point guards are popular right now. But large is a relative term. The average height was 6-2.2, and judging from the graph below, 6-4 and above could be considered large while there are a handful of guys who have the size to guard small forwards. For standing reach, 7-10 to 8-5 is pretty typical. If someone talks about a point guard’s size via standing reach, keep in mind that 8 feet is a decent breaking point for being “small” or not; it’s an easy threshold to remember. Wingspan hews pretty closely to height but it’s normally larger. In fact, for basketball players it’s rare when one’s wingspan is smaller[2. For those interested, here’s the list I have: Chris Kaman, Cody Zeller, Frank Kaminsky, Gordon Hayward, Jarell Martin, Jason Smith, JJ Redick, Kelly Olynyk, Matt Bonner, Monta Ellis, Sasha Vujacic, Shane Larkin, Spencer Hawes, Steve Novak, and TJ McConnell. Feel free to theorize on what this means. Many of those guys are successful players, however, like Gordon Hayward or Chris “you forgot I was an all-star” Kaman.]. Thus, you should be concerned about a player’s wingspan when it’s 6-2 or lower; below 6 feet and a player will probably have defensive concerns.
Shooting Guards
For most of my basketball life, I’ve assumed 6-6 was the prototypical shooting guard height, but the average is almost exactly 6-5. Sometimes we idealize what the game should be and forget all the concessions teams have to make for real basketball games and how many smaller players, or dual point guard set-ups, are utilized. You can see some extremes of 6-foot shooting guards or one near 7-foot, but those are uncommon situations. For wingspan, one can consider 7-foot and above large for a shooting guard. Try not to only focus on height for defensive potential because, for perimeter players especially, wingspan is key for attacking passing lanes and covering offensive players. For standing reach, shooting guards are rarely under 8-foot, and those that play there are normally point guards. Standing reach is important for every player, by the way; I imagine some people think of it as something useful for big men. But you contest shots with your standing reach, not your height.
Small Forwards
Small forwards are somewhat interchangeable with shooting guards but not completely — there’s actually a two inch difference in height on average (6-7.2 for small forwards). The small-ball effect is there, however, as there were a significant amount of minutes at small forward given to guys at 6-4 and below. There’s an interesting distribution, however: it’s an asymmetrical curve with a sharp drop-off from 6-9 to 6-10. I think this is because teams are fine with playing three or more small guys on the court, but they are definitely not fine with a three big-man alignment. Thus, besides a few guys with freakish skills and quickness for their size like Kevin Durant, once you reach a certain size you have to play at an interior position. There’s no such pattern with wingspan, however. Some small forwards have enormous wingspans. You can see some outliers with standing reach too[3. Kevin Durant has the largest, of course, but Ryan Kelly had a few minutes at the position too, as the Lakers sent him there because of his shooting ability and their logjam in the frontcourt.]. A small forward with a standing reach of 9-feet or above is a rare thing.
Power Forwards
The average power forward is 6-9.2. That means there’s been a two-inch difference, roughly, in between shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards. The difference between point guard and shooting guard, however, was about three inches — since point guard is the smallest position you get a larger spread of small players there because point guards can’t “downshift” into a lower position slot. You may notice a rather large power forward on the below graph, and, naturally, that’s the 7-3 Kristaps Porzingis. For standing reach, 8-10 and above seems acceptable, but that 9-foot threshold is pertinent if you’re wondering if a power forward has that extra size one would hope for rim protection. And for wingspan, most power forwards are 7-feet and above.
Centers
The average height for a center is not actually 7-feet; it’s 6-10.9. And ever since I began tracking this information, it’s been around 6-11. So don’t despair if your new center is 6-11 or 6-10 — that’s normal. The 7-foot ideal, however, does apply to wingspan, as most centers have a wingspan of 7-feet or beyond. But the more important measurement is standing reach. I’ve always considered 9-feet to be the standard for a center. You can certainly play the position at a lower mark, but defensively you want to be a “nine-footer.” And if you’re wondering who those 9-7 guys are, they are Rudy Gobert at 9-7 and JaVale McGee at 9-6.5, respectively. They represent opposite ends of the super-long, raw prospect spectrum. Gobert developed quickly for his breakout sophomore season and became a major defensive deterrent, while McGee never capitalized on his size and has since become a joke. Size is crucial for the NBA, but it’s inert without skill.
The Top Prospects
With the above tools available, let’s apply them to the top prospects using the first seven guys in the DraftExpress mock draft.
1) Ben Simmons: SF/PF. Height: 6-10. Wingspan: 7′. Standing reach: 9′.
Following a trend, Simmons was a top prospect who skipped the combine because he didn’t need it. Thus, the figures above are unofficial. But he appears to have the size of a power forward, and even if one uses his lowest measurements (he had several measurements and most are different) he still has more than enough size for small forward. His quickness and strength will then be the determining factors for his NBA position.
2) Brandom Ingram: SF. Height: 6-9.5. Wingspan: 7-3. Standing reach: 9-1.5.*
Ingram is actually longer than Simmons and thus could also play power forward if he weren’t under 200 lbs. He’d be one of the largest small forwards in the NBA, near the 95th percentile, and the track record for super-long guys at the 3 is strong: it includes Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Jae Crowder, Paul George, Andre Iguodala, and LeBron James. His physical attributes shouldn’t be questioned.
3) Kris Dunn: PG. Height: 6-4.25. Wingspan: 6-9.5. Standing reach: 8-4.
Kris Dunn would be one of the larger point guards in the NBA. His wingspan is particularly impressive, which bodes well for his defensive potential. In fact, he’s big enough to play comfortably as a shooting guard too; that’s useful for a guy who could be drafted by a team with Isaiah Thomas.
4) Marquese Chriss: PF. Height: 6-10. Wingspan: 7-0.25. Standing reach: 8-9.
Chriss has deceptive height: he’s above average for his height in shoes, but his wingspan and reach are actually below average. Thus, I would not recommend him for playing at the center slot for too long, even if his athleticism is elite. But with his outside shooting, I imagine teams will be fine using him exclusively as a power forward.
5) Buddy Hield: SG. Height: 6-5. Wingspan: 6-9.25. Standing reach: 8-5.
Buddy Hield is known for his shooting prowess, but thankfully he’s got classic shooting guard size. Elite shooters often are too small for their position.
6) Jamal Murray: PG/SG. Height: 6-5. Wingspan: 6-7. Standing reach: 8-2.*
Murray doesn’t have any official combine measurements, but he appears to have the size for shooting guard, save for a standing reach measurement that may not be accurate anyway. His measurements, in fact, fluctuate so much between camps that it makes me either question our ability to measure a person with tape or his potential to change his size like frightened prey in a jungle.
7) Dragan Bender: PF. Height: 7-0. Wingspan: 7-2. Standing reach: 9-3.*
The Dragan doesn’t have official measurements either, but he’d be one of the largest power forwards in the NBA and would have enough size for center too — if he can add a bit more weight.
Bonus. Zhou Qi: C. Height: 7-2.25. Wingspan: 7-7.75. Standing reach: 9-4.5.
Qi is an enigmatic Chinese prospect, and he’s one of the largest. He’d immediately be one of the largest players in the NBA. Few players get listed at over 7-1, and even fewer with a wingspan like his. In fact, the only active player with a longer wingspan in the database was Rudy Gobert. That is precisely why he could be taken in the first round, and with a thorough understanding of the numbers you can see why.