DraftKings Late MLB picks for June 25
Eight of the 16 (Tampa and Baltimore are playing two) games are in the early tournament, so that gives us an even split on the day. The Coors Field stack will be this afternoon, so let’s take a look at some stats to find some bargains and exploit that!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Kenta Maeda‘s MLB tour continues as he takes his 6-4 record and 2.64 ERA to Pittsburgh. He still has yet to complete seven innings in a start, but he has only had one game under five strikeouts since May 12th. There is value here.
Rookie Dillon Overton is 7-0 wtih a 1.40 ERA in his last seven starts at AAA Nashville. That earned him a trip to the majors to start against Jhoulys Chacin and the Angels. He is a risk, but if you like to gamble, he may pay off.
Nathan Karns has never faced the Cardinals. His 5-2 record looks good, but the 4.38 ERA and 1.46 WHIP show a cautionary tale. You should likely leave him alone in daily leagues.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Madison Bumgarner ($14,000): It’s easy to forget just how good MadBum is with Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer dominating the conversation. Bumgarner is 8-3 with a 1.85 ERA and is facing the Phillies. The same team that is hitting just .211 off of him in 71 at bats with two homers and only four runs. He has also racked up 24 strikeouts. He is likely worth the premium price tonight.
Julio Teheran ($12,600): You know, I could throw a bunch of fancy stats out there stating how Teheran has dominated the Mets (.188 average in 154 at bats), but there is only one stat that you really need to know. Teheran one-hit the Mets on Sunday, didn’t issue a walk, and struck out seven. Case closed.
Chris Tillman ($10,900): The Rays are only hitting .211 against Tillman in 199 at bats, but they have hit eight homers and driven in 19 against him. The 46 strikeouts is a solid number, and with as well as Tillman has pitched this year, it’s hard to argue that he doesn’t belong in the top tier. Tillman went 6.2 scoreless innings against the Rays and gave up just two hits while striking out nine back on April 27th. Don’t be surprised if he does it again.
Honorable Mention:
Jacob deGrom ($11,400): The Braves are hitting a respectable .243 against deGrom, but they have struck out 18 times in 74 at bats. Both Matt Harvey and Steven Matz struggled with Atlanta in this series. Can deGrom buck the trend? Past stats say yes.
Steven Wright ($10,600): Wright takes his AL leading 2.01 ERA down into Texas. Wright has only faced the Rangers once, in May of last year. If not for Josh Hamilton, who hit two solo homers off of him, it was a good game for Wright. The rest of the team had just one hit in 5.2 innings while striking out five times. The good news for Wright is that he doesn’t have to deal with Hamilton. The bad news? He does draw Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara, neither of whom faced him last year.
Dark Horses:
Chris Young ($5,600): The Fountain of Youth that Young found last year has dried up. The 37 year old is 2-6 with a 5.61 ERA so far this year, but tonight he gets a Houston squad that has struggled against him. The Astros are only 13-55(.236) off of Young, but they do have ten runs to 11 strikeouts. It all depends on how much you trust Young right now.
Jeff Locke ($4,000): Every start Locke makes is threatened to be his last. Fortunately for Locke, Tyler Glasnow could walk my 56 year old mother if she were in AAA, which gives Locke a little more leeway. Locke responded with 6.2 scoreless innings against the Giants on Monday after allowing 18 runs in two starts before that. Now he gets a Dodger team that is hitting just .213 against him in 47 at bats with a homer, five runs, and nine strikeouts. Those are solid numbers. If he comes anywhere close to those, he is going to be a nice bargain at his price.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Adam Jones ($4,800) is 9-23(.391) with a double, a homer, and three RBI off of Jake Odorizzi. Manny Machado ($5,300) has also hit Odorizzi hard, going 7-22(.318) with a walk, two homers, and five RBI off of him. J.J. Hardy ($2,900) is 5-18(.278) with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Chris Davis ($4,400) is only 4-18(.222), but he has six walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Odorizzi.
The Mariners are an impressive 18-36 against Mike Leake. Robinson Cano ($4,500) is 2-3 with a RBI. Nelson Cruz ($4,200) is 2-4 with a double, a homer, and four RBI. Adam Lind ($3,700), he of the walk-off three run homer last night, is 3-6 wtih a walk, a homer, and three RBI. Seth Smith ($3,400) is 5-8 with two doubles and a solo homer against Leake.
Colby Rasmus ($3,900) is 2-6 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Chris Young. Jose Altuve ($5,400) is a pedestrian 3-12, but he does have two RBI. Jason Castro ($3,500) is 2-5 with a double, a triple, and a RBI off Young.
Next: More Notes For 6-25
Nick Markakis ($3,300) is 4-12 with a homer and three RBI against Jacob deGrom in his career.
Evan Longoria ($3,400) is 17-54(.315) with five walks, four doubles, seven home runs, and 10 RBI off of Chris Tillman. He has only allowed one more home run to the rest of the current Rays in 145 at bats.
David Ortiz ($5,600) is 3-8 with two walks, a double, and a solo homer against A.J. Griffin, who is making his season debut. Advantage: Ortiz.
Corey Seager ($5,200) is 1-3 with a two run homer against fellow lefty Jeff Locke.
Stephen Vogt ($3,500) is perfect with a walk, a single, a homer, and two RBI against Jhoulys Chacin.
Lorenzo Cain ($3,500) is 2-5 with a walk, a triple, a homer, and four RBI off of Mike Fiers.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!