A model for NBA free agent earnings
NBA free agency opens up on Friday, one of the more exciting times for die hard fans, even when there aren’t emoji wars over DeAndre Jordan. Part of the fun is debating how much each NBA free agent will or should get, how much will Jordan Clarkson draw? Is Harrison Barnes worth a max contract? Who gets more Kent Bazemore or Marvin Williams?
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Last summer, I put together a few models looking at the first question — what factors play into how much each player will get paid, without regard to should. In those models, based on last year’s free agency, I found that playing time was the best indicator, followed by offensive box plus-minus, age, and position (or defensive rebounds).
While that model wasn’t built explicitly to be a predictive model, I figured it would be an interesting exercise to applied it to this year’s expected free agent crop. Taking the eighty or so top free agents, I applied last year’s models for total guaranteed money and for per year salary then factored the results up for the expected jump in the salary cap for next year.
Using those formulas here are the expected top ten best paid free agents sort by in descending order using the result from the total guaranteed money model. Note that the contract years is simply the result of the guaranteed contract model being divided by the single year model to get an idea of approximate expected contract:
Keven Durant and LeBron James top the list, so it doesn’t look completely irrational, even if the result for Durant exceeds his expected allowed max contract. There are a few surprises such a Evan Fournier edging out Andre Drummond, something I don’t expect to happen, especially as Drummond is likely to get a five year max if he wants it. Jordan Clarkson appearing on the list this high is a surprise to me, but someone had to get minutes on that Lakers team last year and Clarkson was moderately productive and is young. Marvin Williams rated very well on the offensive side of the ball, especially for his position and if last year’s pattern holds he will be rewarded for it.
The model doesn’t quite expect Harrison Barnes to get a max contract, about 22 million given his years in the NBA, but close enough at $18 million that it wouldn’t be a surprise.
The next tier is where things get really interesting.
Allen Crabbe could be in for a real pay day, if the pattern holds of defense being lightly valued. The model is unfamiliar with Rajon Rondo’s personality. Mo Harkless looks like an interesting restricted free agent target given that he is well below the max contract according to the models, which would give Portland something to think about in potentially matching. Missed time due to injuries brings Chandler Parsons lower than I would expect him to end up, unless of course teams are actually scared off by his injuries. Note that I expect Miami to give Dwayne Wade more than this, but I am not sure how far the model is off for Wade’s market for another team.
Most teams should expect to concentrate on the value of potential free agent signings in terms of producing wins with the particular needs of their team in mind. However, it doesn’t hurt to have an idea what the expected contract for a player might be, and where you might be able to get a bargain.