MLB Lineups: FanDuel Economics July 6 Early
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the FanDuel MLB Lineups July 6th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel point-per-game (PPG) trends.
The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay-day with your FanDuel MLB lineups!
On Wednesday, we continue with a full slate of 15 games in the MLB schedule. However, today’s schedule is split, with 7 games in the afternoon followed by 8 games in the evening. So we’re splitting today’s FanDuel Economics MLB articles to focus on Early games first, followed by the ‘Main’ slate which begins around 7pm ET. This is the ‘Early’ portion of the lineups focus. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:
- 12:10pm ET (All Day)
- 1:05pm ET (Early Only)
Before we dive into the FanDuel MLB lineups for today’s value, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your FanDuel MLB lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s FanDuel MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers
So far this season, we have focused on year-to-date statistics for pitchers, since they typically only pitch once per week. However, now that we’ve had more time to develop a greater body of work over the season, we’re going to move toward an every 30-day trend for pitchers, for your daily fantasy baseball lineups. We’re also looking at anyone with three or more starts within the last 30 days.
Bud Norris (3:10pm ET) had an OK season in 2014 for the Baltimore Orioles, but outside of 2014, Norris has a less than stellar career to talk about. Bud has 56 career wins and 68 losses with 910 strikeouts over 988.2 innings, and a sub-par 4.45 ERA. Norris hasn’t had a great start to 2016, but lately Bud has been a pleasant surprise for the Los Angeles Dodgers, acquired in a trade with the Atlanta Braves on June 30th. Over his last five games, Norris has at least 6 K’s and as much as 8 strikeouts over each game. Bud hasn’t given up a single earned run in each of his last two games. And, Norris hasn’t given up a home run since April 27th. He’s clearly on a tear. Over the last 30 days, Bud averaged 42.8 PPG, 8th among all starting pitchers. Norris is a very cheap $7,100 salary this afternoon and a 6X value, 1st among all starting pitchers. Bud appears to be a rock solid value given his current streak, but is also risky given his historical results.
Anthony DeSclafani (2:20pm ET) had a shaky start to his career, displaying so-so performances in 2014 for the Marlins, 2-2 over 5 starts with a 6.27 ERA, and 2015 for the Cincinnati Reds, 9-13 over 31 starts with a 4.05 ERA. Although, Anthony’s results in Cincinnati last year are somewhat misleading, his ERA dropped significantly and is approaching a respectable location, and DeSclafani won 9 games with a team struggling in almost every aspect of the game. Since being called up from the minors in early June, Anthony seems to have really stepped up his performance, going 2-0 after 5 starts, with a rock-bottom 1.78 ERA, and 23 strikeouts over 30.1 innings. DeSclafani’s K/inning ratio isn’t stellar, but he’s improving almost with every start, striking out 8 in his last outing, in Washington, against a very good Nationals lineup. Over the last month, Anthony averaged 33.2 PPG. With another very reasonable $7,100 salary, DeSclafani brings a 4.7X value to the mound this afternoon, 16th among all starting pitchers and the 2nd best value at pitcher in the early slate today.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50 among your daily fantasy baseball lineups.
Cameron Rupp, C, (1:05pm ET) continues to be a bit of a surprise for the Philadelphia Phillies this season, hitting .283 with 8 home runs, 20 runs, and 22 RBI’s over 53 games. Rupp has been especially locked in at the plate recently, averaging 17.1 PPG over the last week, 5th among all starting catchers playing at least 4 games during that period of time. Cameron continues to be affordable, now at $2,800, giving us a 6.1X value, the best value at the catcher position in the early period of MLB games. Also, here is a recent deep-dive into the catcher position.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, (3:10pm ET) has struggled this season, although he still has a decent .277 average, but a low amount of home runs, at only 6, and 39 RBI’s, 39, after 81 games. This is an abnormal season for Gonzalez recently. However, over the last seven days, Adrian averaged 13.0 PPG, 12th among all starting first basemen. Gonzalez has a very cheap $2,700 salary today, giving us a solid 4.8X value. The value may not seem high, but that’s actually the best value option at first base, by far, this early part of the day.
Brian Dozier, 2B, (1:10pm ET) remains hot, after hitting 5 home runs in his last 5 games over the month of June. Dozier may not be hitting home runs in July, yet, but he’s still piling up points, 25.4 against the Rangers on July 3rd for example, with a triple, 2 runs, 2 RBI’s, and 2 walks. Over the last week, Brian averaged 18.9 PPG, more than any other second basemen in that time, including Jose Altuve. Dozier’s salary has unsurprisingly spiked to $3,700, but that still gives us a reasonable 5.1X value and I’m definitely going to continue to roll with Brian until he disappoints me or gets too expensive.
There are plenty of good options at third base today, they just happen to mostly be in the evening slate of games. However, Maikel Franco, 3B, (1:05pm ET) is a solid option in the early portion of games, and the best value option at third base. Franco hit 3 HR’s over his last 3 games, and over the last week, Maikel averaged 16.7 PPG, 5th among all starting third basemen. Franco’s salary is becoming more pricey, now at $3,500, a 4.8X value. I’m looking for Franco to continue to roll this afternoon. But for other options, take a look at a deeper-dive into the 3B position, for FanDuel MLB.
I’ve talked about Danny Espinosa, SS, (4:05pm ET) recently and it’s hard to ignore Espinosa, even though it’s risky to keep playing him. Danny has a history of sharp peaks and valleys for the Washington Nationals, constantly putting him on the edge of demotion, or solidity within the lineup. For now, I’m assuming Espy will continue to remain hot. Over the last week, Danny averaged 23.6 PPG, well ahead of Troy Tulowitzki at 18.8 PPG. Espinosa’s salary remains more expensive, but is becoming reasonable at $3,200. So with a 7.4X value, again, I’,m continuing to roll with Danny. For more on this position, take a look at a deeper-dive into the SS position, for FanDuel MLB.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
Peter Bourjos (1:05pm ET) is locked in at the plate lately, and is now hitting in the 2 spot of the Philadelphia Phillies batting order, further improving his offensive success while he’s hot. Peter isn’t having a huge season, but over the last seven days Bourjos averaged 14.9 PPG, 13th among all outfielders playing at least three games during that period of time. Peter’s salary is very cheap, at $2,800 today, giving us a 5.3X value, the best value of all outfielders this afternoon.
After last season and considering the hype surrounding Yasiel Puig (3:10pm ET), 2016 feels like a big disappointment for Puig and Dodgers fans so far. Yasiel is averaging .263 with only 6 doubles, 2 triples, 7 home runs, 29 runs, and 26 RBI’s. That’s not bad, but not nearly as good as expected. Although, over the last week, Puig is getting hot, averaging 12.4 PPG. This feels like the start of a run building on the 12.4 PPG weekly average, and Yasiel is still very cheap. With a $2,500 salary this afternoon, Puig is a 5X value, the third best value option in the outfield this afternoon.
Curtis Granderson (1:10pm ET) isn’t hitting well for average this year, with a paltry .229 batting average by the end of the 4th of July. However, Curtis does have 15 home runs, somehow only compiling 40 runs with 25 RBI’s to go with those 15 home runs. Lately, Granderson has been hitting bombs again, and he’s now averaging 18.7 PPG, 5th among all outfielders. Curtis is a bit pricey, at $3,500, but that’s still a 5.3X value, the second best value option in the outfield this afternoon. However, given you’re relying almost solely on the long ball from Granderson, he’s a big risk and not my favorite value option.
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To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
Best of luck today daily fantasy baseball gamers! Make sure to check lineups as they are announced before locking in your FanDuel MLB lineups!