FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for July 15
FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for July 15
WELCOME BACK BASEBALL! Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in-depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Friday’s MLB action kicks off at 2:20PM EST with a game in Wrigley but the main slate begins at 7:05PM EST with 14 games on the first day back from the All-Star Break!
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 255.9 | $ 8,639 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,295 | 7.31 |
| 5 Day | 251.3 | $ 8,682 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,290 | 7.18 |
| Prev Day | 228.3 | $ 10,200 | 29% | 71% | $ 3,100 | 6.52 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Who is the top pitching option on Friday's Slate?
After a few days without Major League Baseball action, we return back to our DFS lives as we look to tackle the first slate after the All Star Break. Although many of the games best were on display in San Diego, the Friday night slate is loaded with aces as Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are just a few of the top end hurlers to choose from when building our FanDuel MLB lineup.
Madison Bumgarner ($11,900) at San Diego: Looking back at the days leading up to the All Star Break, the winning entries were more often than not utilizing elite pitchers priced over $10k making it clear that paying up for pitcher in the recent past has been a winning strategy. Friday night we have 4 pitchers priced over $10k, and keep in mind as of this writing Stephen Strasburg does not show as probable for Friday night but is expected to make the start and will make the 5th $10k+ option.
Over the last month, Strasburg has been the best pitcher on a point per game basis of any on the slate Friday night and is actually priced $500 lower than Bumgarner which makes him an intriguing option however the more I dig into the numbers, the more Bumgarner stands out.
Bumgarner is coming off an electrifying near no hitter in his last start before the break and gets a tremendous match up in San Diego. The Padres strike out at the 6th highest clip of any team in MLB against LHP and for BvP fans, Bumgarner has absolutely owned the current Padres hitters. In 161 at bats, Bumgarner has limited the Padres to a .174 average and racked up 51 K’s (31% K rate) while only giving up 3 HR’s.
Bumgarner in his last outing in San Diego this season, pitched 9 innings, striking out 11 Padres hitters on his way to a 69 point outing and he makes for my top play on Friday night.
Pitching Summary (Top End): Frankly, with so many aces on the mound, this feels like a night to pay up for your starting pitcher when building your rosters. The “safety” of these big names and the upside they have flashed all season long are going to be difficult to contend with if you chose to spend down and don’t get massive games from your hitting choices. If you are playing multiple lineups, alternating MadBum and Strasburg and using the additional savings with the Nationals All Star will allow you to diversify your entries while still capturing the top end arms.
Next: Top Budget Pitching Option for Friday Night
Anthony DeSclafani ($7,200) at home versus Milwaukee: Yes I know, I just told you to pay up for SP and I still believe its the right choice, but you don’t need me to tell you to play Bumgarner or Strasburg so let me find you a pitcher that will be low owned and has flown under the radar lately.
Anthony DeSclafani of the Cincinnati Reds has been exceptional since returning from the DL and has pitched to a 2.23 ERA over his last 6 starts. In his last 4 starts, DeSclafani has averaged 43.25 points per game which would equate to 6x value at this price point and he gets a match up with the team that strikes out at the highest percentage (25.6%) against RHP in all of MLB.
In large field tournaments, I love the idea of throwing the Reds right-handed into your lineup which will allow you to differentiate your lineup not only at SP, but will allow you to pay up for a number of high priced bats which those going for the high-end pitchers will not have the luxury of doing!
Next: Top Hitting Options
Robinson Cano/Kyle Seager versus RHP Doug Fister: If you are paying up for Bumgarner, finding high upside bats in the mid to low $3k range will be critical as those will likely be your “big bats” in this type of roster construction. Robinson Cano ($3,500) & Kyle Seager ($3,200) both sit at fantastic price points and have a match up at home against a home run prone right hander in Doug Fister who has struggled against LHB this season, giving up a .279 average and 12 home runs in 51 IP.
Kennys Vargas ($2,700) at home against RHP Carlos Carrasco: I would not expect the Twins offense to be a popular target tonight which may allow us to roster one of the hottest 1B in MLB right now at a supremely deflated ownership. Vargas has been red-hot since his call up, averaged 21.1 PPG over his last 5 games and with a spot in the middle of the order makes for a great high upside pick that I expect most gamers will overlook.
Jay Bruce ($3,600) against RHP Matt Garza: Garza has given up at least 4 ER in each of his last 3 starts and makes for one of the best pitchers to attack as the Reds hitters get the benefit of hitting at home in Great American Ballpark. Bruce has hit Garza hard in his career, going 7 for 17 with 3 HR’s and makes for a great “pay up” play in a Bumgarner lineup.
Giancarlo Stanton ($3,700): Honestly, I am going to be fascinated to see the ownership percentage of the Home Run Derby champion on Friday night and although I will likely play the fade game, I cannot wait to see how gamers attack this one. Stanton was red-hot heading into the ASB, putting up 23 points per game (the most of any OF the last week) and with his epic performance in the Home Run Derby, will gamers look to ride the hot streak at what seems to be a very reasonable price?
Next: Top FanDuel MLB Lineup for Friday
Below you will find my initial lineup for Friday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.
Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner ($11,900)
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Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!