Fantasy Baseball: Second Half Bounce Back Pitching Candidates
It’s the All-Star break which means there were under performers that need addressing. Here are those pitchers that are ready to bounce back.
As we take a break from the regular season, I’m going to be writing about those pitchers who didn’t receive an invite to the mid-summer classic. Yes, the non-stars have shown up in full force this season. I’m tackling those pitchers that fall between simple underperformance to the why-is-this-player-still-rostered candidates.
MICHAEL PINEDA
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. That entire series is an indictment on me as both a sabermetrician (eh, feels weird saying that), fantasy baseball enthusiast, writer, and just how hard it is to predict pitcher success. And the biggest takeaway is that we are all still learning — most of all myself — and baseball is incredibly hard to predict. If only that five-part series would have listed the names Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright, Rich Hill, Kyle Hendricks, and Aaron Sanchez. Blame it on the formula?
But it doesn’t stop me from still believing in the most enigmatic pitcher in the major leagues. After the first two months of the season, I petitioned for him to legally change his name to Michael Piñata after the way he was knocked around. But he is not his 5.38 ERA at the break. He is also a guy who unless something changes, will never reach his peripherals (I hear you guys screaming at me). But we need to read between those two points of success, yeah?
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Pineda has always been a pitcher with excellent control — he posted .83 and 1.18 BB/9 — and horrible command. When pitching in the strikezone, Pineda serves up more meatballs than Chef Boyardee. So why would I believe Pineda can turn it around?
Because he is now venturing outside of the strikezone. It may sound crazy for me to suggest that because a pitcher has increased his walk rate that it will make him a better pitcher but I truly believe it has helped in this case. It’s less about the numbers but in how Pineda is attacking hitters. In his six June starts, Pineda posted a 12.25 K/9, 2.00 BB/9 with a 2.75 ERA to match his 2.56 FIP and 2.47 xFIP.
Pineda was one of the best pitchers in that month. If he can sacrifice a few more walks while staying out of the strike zone just a bit more, I think he could have more sustained success going forward. I even put my money where my mouth is and traded for him in my keeper league.
DREW SMYLY
The Rays do love their flyball pitchers, don’t they? Smyly, Jake Odorizzi, and Matt Moore all have ground ball rates below 40% and fly ball rates above 43%. And there really has only been one pitcher who has sustained elite-level success as a flyball pitcher and his name is Mad Max Scherzer. Well, Scherzer and Smyly have more in common than you think.
LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | Soft% | Hard% | BABIP | |
| Max Scherzer | 19.0% | 34.5% | 46.6% | 13.1% | 15.6% | 23.2% | 26.9% | 0.241 |
| Drew Smyly | 19.8% | 33.2% | 47% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 22.6% | 30.5% | 0.313 |
In no way am I saying that Smyly will be Scherzer in the second half. But the difference between the two can’t be measured in a batted ball profile. Clearly, Scherzer is a better pitcher because of an elite k-rate. His BABIP is better because he induces a lot more weak fly balls because of his amazing spin-rate. Smyly takes a different path to success where he matches his IFFB% but the lack of giddy-up on his fastball creates a gap between the two pitchers.
However, there is zero reason that a fly ball pitcher should have a .313 BABIP. As you may know, fly balls have the worst batting average in the league and combined with the above average soft contact rates with below average line drives rates, Smyly is due for some good fortune in the second half. I mean, he is one of the leader for just enough home runs allowed this season.
Since June, Smyly has maintained his success with his K and BB-rates. And with Kevin Keirmaier set to rejoin the team on Friday, he’ll have the benefit of some elite outfield defense behind him going forward.
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GERRIT COLE
Cole may seem like a curious inclusion because his overall numbers aren’t terrible; he still sported a 2.77 ERA when he hit the DL. However, those who have looked into Cole may be worried to his an increased BB-rate and a 1.5 K/9 drop from last season to now.
So while a casual reader may not have been aware, I’ve seen a lot of people worried. And unlike Pineda and Smyly, you drafted Cole to be your bona fide ace.
Cole has actually lost his strikeouts but he is a good bet to find his form going forward after a needed DL stint and it is my belief Cole has been dealing with this injury for the better part of this year. his SwStr% fell from 10.2% in 2015 to just 8.0% this season. Because of the lack of swings and misses, this has allowed hitters to stay in counts resulting in long at-bats that have resulted in a walk. But why is the swinging strike rate down?
Above are the 2015 Fastball Breakdown (left) and 2016 Fastball Breakdown (right). Cole is a pitcher that relies heavily on his fastball and has featured two-seamer usage since 2014. The result is a four-seam fastball usage at around 68%, and the movement has seen a measurable change.
In 2015, his fastball horizontal movement was at -7.4 but now sits at -6.5. According to the slider movement, it also seems like the slider is coming in flatter. The best news is that the velocity on all his pitches are right where his career averages.
Both of these issues that have led to a decrease in whiffs and increase in walks can be traced to that strained triceps which has less impact on velocity (as seen above) and impacts movement and extension. I believe he comes back from that with life on his fastball and slider and the strikeouts see an uptick.
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THE OTHERS
Some guys jump out to me but I didn’t feel I needed an entire write up. Obvious candidates include the aces who haven’t lived up to their billing. David Price still is striking out batters and at a higher rate than ever. But I also expect guys like Sonny Gray and Michael Wacha to bounce back as well; both are performing on par with their career norms but their LOB% and out of the ordinary walk troubles have killed their ERA and WHIP.