Red Sox: Fantasy Fallout From Drew Pomeranz Trade

Red Sox added rotation depth by trading for Drew Pomeranz. What is the fantasy fallout after the trade?

The Boston Red Sox knew that they had to go and out and find a starting pitcher, and it seems like they have found their man. They landed Drew Pomeranz, who is coming off a first half that saw him make the NL All-Star team. But, what is the fallout for both Boston and San Diego after the deal?

It is important to first look at the trade from a practical standpoint. The Red Sox rotation has been downright terrible. David Price was handed one of the biggest free agent deals in baseball history, but he has been inconsistent all season. The only saving grace has been, Steven Wright, which was obviously not part of the offseason formula.

The rest of the rotation, Rick Porcello, Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez, have all failed to provide the team with any stability as well. With no top end starters in next seasons’ free agent market, it leaves players such as Pomeranz, hot commodities on the trade market. Pomeranz has certainly cemented his value this season, by posting a, 2.47 ERA/115 K/1.06 WHIP line, over 17 starts. 

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He has easily been one of the best starters in baseball, and over the last three seasons, he has steadily improved. His calling card is one of the best curveballs in the game, but his emergence has come on the back of an added cutter to his arsenal. The Red Sox are banking of his ever developing repertoire, with the hopes that he can provide stability down the stretch.

From a fantasy perspective, Pomeranz’s move to Fenway may cause owners some trepidation. While the move from one of the best pitching ballparks, to one of the best hitter’s havens in the game, will surely have a detrimental impact on his ERA. But, things may not seem so troublesome as most would assume. In nine starts on the road this season, his ERA is 2.32, while it is 2.64 ERA on the road.

Pomeranz’s FIP on the season is a respectable 3.18 as well, so his success this season has not been solely luck driven. Over the second half of the season, the Red Sox will mostly face divisional opponents.

By looking at his career numbers at AL East ballparks, there are more signs of optimism. At Fenway he has a career ERA of 2.25 over three starts, at Camden it is 2.70, at Yankee Stadium it is 1.00, in Toronto it is 3.18, and he did not surrender a run during his only start in Tampa.

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While most of these numbers came when he was a swing man for the Oakland A’s, it does show that he has not just purely benefited from the confines of Petco.  Pomeranz will more than likely see some regression, but his numbers will not fall out to the point where he will lose all fantasy value.

The Padres knew that they were heading into the 2016 season with a rebuild in mind after striking out last season on their offseason acquisitions. They further showed this mission by dishing Fernando Rodney just a matter of weeks ago, so Pomeranz will certainly not be the last piece to move.

One of the biggest drawbacks of their failures in 2015, was that they had to deal away most of their top end prospects. But, they were able to secure one of the best young arms in the Red Sox organization by dishing Pomeranz.

Anderson Espinoza was rated as the No.4 prospect in the Red Sox organization, and scouts have methodically raised him up the ranks on top prospects lists. Espinoza is amazingly, only 18-years-old, yet already possesses one the best arms in the minors. While his 4.62 ERA is unsightly, he certainly has the arsenal to become an ace in just a few years. He sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, has a plus change-up, and showcases a hard breaking curveball.

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This trade makes sense for both teams, as it simply benefits both teams’ agendas. Espinoza is a youngster that needs to be cemented on dynasty radars, and Pomeranz’s value will only take a slight hit with the move.