DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 23
12 of the 15 games are in the night tournament, which gives us nearly a full slate to choose from. There are six pitchers that cost more than $10,000. Are any of them worth paying for? Where are some bargains so we can afford someone that expensive? Let’s go over the past stats to find out!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Kenta Maeda has not faced the Cardinals yet. He will get them tonight in sultry St. Louis, where the temperature is likely to still be in the mid to high 90’s when the game starts. New Busch isn’t the oven that old Busch is, but keep in mind that Maeda may not work very deep into this game because of the heat.
Tyler Anderson has never faced the Braves, but he has posted a nice 3.43 ERA in seven starts. Not only that, he has been what you would consider brilliant at Coors Field. He is 2-1 with a 3.26 ERA there in five starts with 29 strikeouts in 30.1 innings. He is a very good pick against Atlanta.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Max Scherzer ($13,100): Once again, Scherzer is one of the top option of the night. The Padres are hitting a pathetic .137 against him in 131 at bats with two homers, only four runs, and 33 strikeouts. The strikeout numbers are a little short of elite, but Scherzer has racked up 171 already this year. He will pick them up tonight. This is one of those night where he could flirt with 40 DraftKings points.
Jose Fernandez ($13,900): The Mets are hitting .225 against Fernandez, which is not terrible, but they have struck out 28 times in just 71 at bats. That elite strikeout total is what makes Fernandez the highest priced pitcher of the day. The Mets have only homered off of him once, but they have scratched out six runs. He and Scherzer will both likely have really good days, but if I had to pick one, it would be Fernandez based on past history. Will he outscore Scherzer by enough to warrant the extra $800? I guess it depends on where you free up that $800 elsewhere in your lineup.
David Price ($11,100): The Twins are only hitting .221 against Price in 222 at bats, but they do have four homers and 21 RBI, which are pretty average numbers. Price has racked up 55 strikeouts, and this lineup is without Trevor Plouffe, who is 9-25 off of Price. If you take his numbers out, the Twins are only hitting .203 with 18 RBI. He is not the elite option, but don’t be surprised if he performs near the top tier of pitchers tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Mike Leake ($8,100): The Dodgers are hitting just .219 against Leake in 114 at bats. Now for the bad news. The Dodgers have five homers and 12 RBI with just 15 strikeouts. However, Andre Ethier has two of those homers and half of the RBI, and he is on the disabled list. That reduces the damage from the rest of the team to .191 wtih three homers and six RBI in 94 at bats. Those are very good numbers. The lack of strikeouts are the only thing keeping him from the upper tier.
Kendall Graveman ($7,900): The Rays have struggled against Graveman, hitting just .196 against him in 51 at bats with one homer and four runs. Graveman has only struck out seven though while walking six. This limits his upside, but the Rays had all sorts of trouble scoring last night. Then again, the A’s did too…..
Dark Horses:
Zach Davies ($6,800): If you are feeling particularly lucky, the Cubs are a pathetic 2-19(.105) against Davies. Both hits are singles, but he has only struck out four. That keeps him from being a really good option. The fact that he is playing the Cubs also does, but if you want to use someone who wont be in many lineup that could come through for you, Davies could be your man.
Kevin Gausman ($6,500): Gausman has pitched well against the current Indians lineup. They are hitting just .207 against him in 29 at bats, but they have a homer, four runs, and have only struck out six. This makes Gausman a little more of a risk, but considering Tomlin’s history against the Orioles, he could still be a solid play.
Edwin Jackson ($5,500): Jackson has virtually no chance at a win facing off against Max Scherzer, but the Nationals are only hitting .213 against Jackson in 89 at bats with a homer, eight RBI, and 15 strikeouts. Those are average numbers, but if you get average at this price, you are ahead of the game.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
The Tigers have 12 homers and 28 RBI against Chris Sale. There are some stackable pieces in here. Miguel Cabrera ($2,700) is only 9-38(.237), but he has ten walks, two homers, and four RBI. Jose Iglesias ($2,300) could be a good option to punt shortstop. He is 7-17 against Sale with a double, a homer, and two RBI. Victor Martinez ($2,700) is 18-36 with three walks, three doubles, four homers, and nine RBI off of Sale. Ian Kinsler ($4,400) is only 7-34(.206), but he has five walks, a double, two homers, and four RBI against Sale.
You may want to stack some Astros against the struggling Jered Weaver. Jose Altuve ($5,500) is 13-33 with a walk, three doubles, a triple, and three RBI off Weaver. Jason Castro ($3,300) is 6-23(.261) with a double, three homers, and six RBI against Weaver. Carlos Correa ($5,200) is 4-10 with two walks, a homer, and five driven in. Evan Gattis ($2,900) is 4-15 with a double, a homer, and two driven in. George Springer ($4,200) is 8-18(.444) with a double, two homers and three driven in. Carlos Gomez ($2,700) is 3-14(.214) with three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI off Weaver. Make sure you stay away from Colby Rasmus though. Rasmus is just 1-17 against Weaver in his career.
Believe it or not, the Orioles have blasted Josh Tomlin. Chris Davis ($3,700) is 3-6 with a homer and three RBI off of Tomlin. J.J. Hardy ($2,900) is only 2-9, but he has a homer and two RBI. Adam Jones ($3,900) is a must play if he is in the lineup. Jones is 8-15(.533) with four doubles, a homer, and three RBI off of Tomlin. Nolan Reimold ($3,200) is 1-2 with a solo homer against Tomlin.
Ricky Nolasco‘s ERA is rising with the temperature, so you definitely want to stack Red Sox at Fenway. Aaron Hill ($3,600) is 6-20 with two doubles and two RBI against Nolasco. David Ortiz ($5,600) will be widely used tonight. He is 4-13(.308) with two walks, three homers, and six RBI. Ryan Hanigan ($2,900) is 2-8 with a solo homer. He is worth a look if he plays. At least Nolasco doesn’t have to deal with Pablo Sandoval. The Panda has three homers and seven RBI against him.
Don’t look now, but the Marlins are hitting .294 in 153 at bats against Jacob deGrom. They have two homers and an impressive 16 RBI, but they have also struck out 41 times. Chris Johnson ($2,000) is 5-17(.294) with a double and three RBI. Marcell Ozuna ($3,100) is 6-22(.273) with a walk, a double, and two RBI. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,000) is 4-12 with three walks, a double, and two solo homers against deGrom. Both of those came back on July 6th, foreshadowing his Home Run Derby performance. Christian Yelich ($4,700) is 7-22(.318) with two doubles and a RBI.
Albert Pujols ($3,800) is 7-19(.368) with four walks, a homer, and four RBI against Collin McHugh. Mike Trout ($5,000) is 6-17(.353), with two doubles, a triple, two homers and four RBI. Kole Calhoun ($3,400) is 8-26(.308) with a double, but he has no counting stats.
Next: More Notes For 7-23
Wil Myers ($3,900) is 4-6 with a double and two solo homers against Max Scherzer, if you feel lucky. Whatever you do, don’t use Matt Kemp. He is 1-27(.037) lifetime against Scherzer.
Daniel Murphy ($5,300) is 5-20 with a homer and two RBI against Edwin Jackson.
Brian Dozier ($4,500) is only 6-31(.194) off of David Price, but he has two walks, two doubles, two homers, and four RBI. Eduardo Nunez ($4,600) is just 10-45(.222), but he has three walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI. Kurt Suzuki ($3,100) is only 7-33(.212), but he has a walk, four doubles, a homer, and six RBI off of Price.
Brandon Phillips ($2,900) is perfect against Robbie Ray. He has a walk, a single, and a solo homer. Eugenio Suarez ($4,300) is 1-2 with a homer and two driven in against Ray.
Kelly Johnson ($2,300) is 1-2 with a three run homer against Jose Fernandez. What are the chances of him doing it again?
Carlos Gonzalez ($5,200) is 1-2 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Matt Wisler. Want more of a reason to use him? He is hitting .360 with 15 of his 20 homers at Coors Field and has drive in 44 of his 59 runs there.
Coco Crisp ($3,200) is 4-8 with three RBI against Drew Smyly. Billy Butler ($3,500) is very hard to trust, but he is 7-16(.438) with a walk, a double, and a solo homer against Smyly.
Adrian Beltre ($3,000) is 4-9 with a double and three RBI against Yordano Ventura. Ventura does get a break though. Both Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder are injured. They are a combined 8-14 with two homers and six RBI against Ventura. Instead, he gets Delino DeShields ($3,200), who is 3-5 with a double and a triple, but has no counting stats.
Chase Utley ($3,600) is just 3-24(.125) against Mike Leake, but he has a double and two homers with his three hits. If he gets a hit, it’s a big one. Corey Seager‘s ($4,900) only hit in seven at bats against Leake is a home run.
Brad Miller ($3,900) is 2-7 with a homer and two RBI against Kendall Graveman.
Kendrys Morales ($3,100) is 2-3 with a solo homer off of Cole Hamels. Alcides Escobar ($2,000) is 3-8 with two walks, a double, and a RBI from his National League days.
Scooter Gennett ($3,000) is 5-14(.357) with a walk, a double, and three RBI against John Lackey. Is it enough to pull him out of his slump?
Jose Abreu ($3,100) is 2-3 with a homer and three RBI against Matt Boyd. Dioner Navarro ($2,700) is perfect with a walk and a solo homer off Boyd.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!