Oklahoma City Thunder offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Oklahoma City Thunder were just minutes away from finishing the Golden State Warriors, and securing a trip to the NBA Finals. They were unable to hang on in that series, and in the span of just a few weeks the future of the organization has become murky.

Inputs: Domantas Sabonis (PF, NBA Draft pick No. 11); Victor Oladipo (SG, traded from the Orlando Magic); Alex Abrines (SG, signed for three years, $18 million); Ersan Ilyasova (PF, traded from the Orlando Magic)

Outputs: Kevin Durant (SF, signed with the Golden State Warriors); Dion Waiters (SG, signed with the Miami Heat); Randy Foye (SG, signed with the Brooklyn Nets); Nazr Mohammed (C, unsigned); Serge Ibaka (PF, traded to the Orlando Magic)

Retained: None

Pending:  None

Kevin Durant was the number one prize this offseason and he chose to leave the Thunder behind, signing instead with the Warriors. He leaves an enormous void in the Thunder’s offense and defense, one that will not be easy to fill. Gone as well is Serge Ibaka, whose versatility and athleticism helped facilitate the switch-heavy scheme that the Thunder gave Golden State so much trouble with.

Although the Thunder have lost two foundational pieces, the cupboard is far from bare. Sabonis is interesting pick — he is an incredibly physical and high-motor big who can probably contribute immediately in a limited role. He’s not the quickest big and there are questions about his defense and shooting, but he plays a smart and aggressive brand of basketball. Abrines is a skilled young wing from Spain who can shoot and and plays well off the ball.

Oladipo is the real prize for the Thunder (although he looked shinier before Durant left). Young, athletic, and aggressive defensively, he could be the best two-way complement the Thunder have had in their backcourt since the beginning of the Durant and Westbrook era. This is obviously a team in transition but the Thunder have enough talent to remain one of the better teams in the Western Conference.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Oklahoma City’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Thunder expertise. Fred Katz (@FredKatz) covers the Thunder for The Norman Transcript. Bryan Harvey (@LawnChairBoys) is a regular contributor to FanSided’s Hardwood Paroxysm. Tony Heim (@tony_heim) is the editor for FanSided’s Thunderous Intentions.

Fred, Bryan, and Tony were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Oklahoma City’s offseason.

What do the Thunder need to do this season to convince Russell Westbrook to stay?

Fred Katz: Don’t sell him on the Thunder being his team, like many say they should. Just about any other organization, including the Lakers, can do that. Don’t sell him on allowing him to take over the city and make it his own. Pretty much all other organizations can do that, too. That’s all so superficial. So impersonal. And if you’re going on nine-years in a relationship, whether it’s business or personal, isn’t the best way to convince a ambivalent party to continue that relationship to remind them of all the good? That isn’t necessarily tied to Kevin Durant. It could be that the Thunder know Westbrook’s personality best, that they know how to make him more comfortable than any other place. It could be that they shield Westbrook from the public eye well. It could be emphasizing the people he sees on a general basis. And if that doesn’t work, remind him that if he extends a year, he can bump up his own salary for 2016-17 by almost $9 million while also making him a tier 3 free agent, eligible for the 10-year max, in 2018.

Bryan Harvey: I’m not sure what the front office should do. Despite only one Finals appearance in Durant’s tenure, Presti and company have proven that they can supply enough talent to compete for championships. Of course, they’ve never had to fill a Kevin Durant sized hole, either. If Westbrook wants to keep winning at the same level in OKC, he has to believe not just in the front office, but in his own abilities to recruit other marquee players. Misses on the court have never caused Russ to stop shooting — what about missed pitches in Los Angeles restaurants? More importantly, is this something he even wants to do?

The long held belief about the Thunder during the Durant and Westbrook era was that the two were too talented to mesh seamlessly on the basketball court, at least in a way that allowed for an actual system to take hold. This perspective always asked the two to win in the manner of other stars on other teams, rather than in the organic manner that grew from their distinctive skillsets. Moreover, this notion rooted itself in the mythology of the alpha male.

But the call for order in OKC may have been an older generation’s misunderstanding the future of NBA leadership. It could be that neither of these Millennial stars really wanted to be a conventional franchise player. People over 30 needed to view KD and Russ as a struggle for supremacy, yet the presence of the other always split the weight. Both guys got to play hero ball without ever having to play the hero afterwards. Instead, they could wear matching backpacks and give joint press conferences.

What’s interesting now, though, is how KD’s offseason move appears to have doubled down on certain aspects of his relationship with Russ. Yes, he gave up hero ball for good, but he still won’t have to be the face of the franchise. He’s also not co-headlining. Instead, he’s part of a true ensemble. Meanwhile, Russ didn’t just get screwed in terms of what happens on the court, but in what happens off it. Did he ever really want to be the guy? Royce White of ESPN argues that such a promotion was “not something [Russ] has ever wanted,” and yet KD’s decision has hoisted such a responsibility onto Russ’ shoulders without his having asked for it.

And really that’s what all this comes down to: Who or what does Russell Westbrook want to be? Who is he willing to become? Does it require a suit or can he wear whatever the hell he likes? If I’m the Thunder, I’d start there. I’d view the upcoming season as a vision quest.

Tony Heim: Just like they tried to do with KD, Sam Presti has been selling Russell for his entire career. Somehow this team has been able make four of the last six Western Conference Finals while adding SIX lottery picks to the roster during that span. Presti is one of the best general managers at adding pure talent and Russ realizes that. Instead of selling him on being the alpha-dog, sell him on being a part of an amazing stable of young talent that also happens to have over 70 million dollars worth of cap space for next season. They have the ability to keep their core for the next five years; what’s important is that he likes these guys as players AND friends. Sell him on the idea that the best is not when KD left, but when the young guys all reach their prime together.

This season, Victor Oladipo will be                          .

Fred Katz: Aggressive. Oladipo certainly had his troubles playing next to a ball-dominant point guard in Orlando, and some of those could arise again in Oklahoma City, but he’s a downhill player, a tremendous athlete and a general attacker on both sides of the ball. Playing next to Russell Westbrook could help him take those traits to the next level. The same thing could happen on the defensive end, where Westbrook’s and Oladipo’s gamble-heavy tendencies may just have to be written into defensive strategy.

Bryan Harvey: Happier. Victor’s never been on an NBA team that’s won more than 35 games. The Thunder haven’t won that few games since Westbrook’s rookie year (when they won 23). Even without Durant, the current OKC roster should be the most talented group Oladipo’s ever been on. He’s not the shooter KD is and perhaps his offensive game is somewhat redundant to Westbrook’s, but he should be able to exist somewhere in the space between KD’s sunshine and Dion Waiters’ dark matter. Of course, another part of this equation is to what degree can Andre Roberson replicate his postseason successes. Someone, after all, has to space the floor for everyone not named Westbrook.

Tony Heim: Free. Oladipo’s growth as a basketball player was being stunted in Orlando. He didn’t have a point guard who could score, so all the perimeter defense was focused on him. Now he has weapons around him, and he will have more space for himself AND to create for others. On the defensive end, he will be paired up with one of the most underrated defenders in the league in Andre Roberson; those two will create problems night in and night out. It’s scary to think that Steven Adams could be the third-best defender on the floor at times. Billy Donovan is going to have boatloads of fun figuring out defensive schemes with these guys.

Considering skill overlap with the rest of the big man rotation, how does Domantas Sabonis fit in this season?

Fred Katz: It’s possible he ends up playing more 4 this year than 5. The Thunder are, at least, hoping he can play contributing minutes next to Steven Adams by the end of the season. He won’t shoot 3s to space the floor, but aside from Ersan Ilyasova, Alex Abrines and Anthony Morrow, the Thunder are mostly strapped for long-distance shooting anyway. So, he may end up just fitting next to Adams, even if both have to play inside the arc. Defensively, he won’t be a rim-protector — he doesn’t quite have the length to do it, part of why he could play more 4 than 5 in the upcoming year — but his relatively quick feet and notable defensive smarts could allow him to be more switchy than some expect, which would help a Thunder defense (with guys like Adams, Andre Roberson, Oladipo and Westbrook) to be particularly aggressive. I’d guess, by the end of the year, we can pencil him in for 15 to 20 minutes a night.

Bryan Harvey: Watch film from Domantas Sabonis’ time at Gonzaga and it doesn’t take long to notice how every move is to his left. And, with a bit more time, one notices how almost all of those highlights is a jump hook against a smaller player in close proximity to the basket. In other words, his game will obviously go through an adjustment period. He will find the opposition taller and stronger than he did in college. He will also discover the need to develop counter moves in the post. Maybe he already possesses these moves, but no one in college made them a necessity. Still, predicting what he’ll be in his first year, much less in a few years, is quite difficult. He could suffer from invisibility at times, especially when one considers how his skills, at this juncture, appear to be those of a diminished Enes Kanter. Then again, that may not be such a bad thing; clones are what supply depth and grease the future’s trade machines.

Tony Heim: I loved Sabonis out of college and I was ecstatic when the Thunder traded for him. His body is NBA-ready, but he got stuck on a team with a plethora of skilled bigs. Adams, Kanter, and Ilyasova are going to start and end (barring injuries) the season ahead of him on the depth chart. This is Mitch McGary’s make-or-break year, so Billy is going to give him a shot early on in the season. But if McGary doesn’t perform, Sabonis can step right into his role. Remember, OKC is used to easing their rookies into the league. See: Mitch McGary, Cam Payne, Andre Roberson. Domantas is going to be a solid NBA player, but don’t expect him to make a serious impact this season.

Floor balance

Many teams seem to have a perennial hole, that one spot in the lineup that they are constantly looking to upgrade. For the Memphis Grizzlies, it’s on the wing. For the Oklahoma City Thunder, it’s been a guard to pair with Russell Westbrook. Over the past few seasons, the Thunder have had great shooters, slashers, and defenders next to Westbrook. The problem is they’ve rarely been able to find someone who fits into more than one category. The graph below shows the 34 guards other than Westbrook who have played at least 500 minutes in a season for the Thunder since he joined the league. They are charted by their Offensive and Defensive Box Plus-Minus (a box score based estimate of a player’s impact per 100 possessions).

Over the past eight seasons, the Thunder have had just two player seasons by a non-Westbrook guard that provided above average production on both ends of the floor — James Harden in 2009-10, and Thabo Sefolosha in 2012-13. Victor Oladipo would be the third. For the duration of the Thunder’s recent excellence, rotation decisions have almost always been a dichotomous, either-or choice between offense and defense.

Obviously, Oladipo alone is not going to offset what the Thunder lost in Durant. But the fact that he is a reliable two-way player, one who arguably still has considerable room to grow at both ends, gives them something they’ve never had from that position.