Denver Nuggets offseason review
By Ian Levy
As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Denver Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets lost far more than they won last season but the performances of their young players built a significant amount of optimism for the not-too-distant-future. What did they add to their young core this summer?
Inputs: Jamal Murray (SG, NBA Draft pick No. 7); Juan Hernagomez (PF, NBA Draft pick No. 15); Malik Beasley (SG, NBA Draft pick No. 19)
Outputs: None
Retained: Mike Miller (SF, signed for two years, $5 million); Darrell Arthur (PF, signed for three years, $23 million)
Pending: None
For the Nuggets, the offseason was pretty much the draft. They were able to snag a great fit at No. 7 with Jamal Murray, a potent scorer who should be able to contribute right away. Murray can play both guard positions and may need to bounce back and forth to find minutes in a crowded rotation. He’s a very good catch-and-shoot player and has the potential to be an excellent off-the-dribble shooter as well. The early challenges for him will be holding up on defense and improving his decision-making in the pick-and-roll.
Juan Hernangomez was another value pick towards the end of the lottery. He’s an athletic power forward with the potential to be an extremely effective defender at both forward positions. He may not have many opportunities this season but the focus needs to be on channeling his energy and activity into the structure of a team defense. Malik Beasley is an active and athletic wing who shot the three-pointer very consistently last season. Like Hernangomez, he’ll be hard-pressed to find minutes this season but could be a key contributor down the road.
3 Big Questions
To really dig deep on Denver’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Nuggets expertise. Nathan Beighle (@NathanBeighle) is the editor for FanSided’s Nugg Love. Adam Mares (@Adam_Mares) is the site manager for SBNation’s Denver Stiffs. Daniel Lewis (@minutemandan) is a regular contributor to Denver Stiffs and FanSided’s Hardwood Paroxysm.
Nathan, Adam, and Daniel were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Denver’s offseason.
How does Jamal Murray fit into the crowded backcourt rotation?
Nathan Beighle: Just because of Murray’s pure talent, he will see time. I believe we will see him 80 percent of the time playing behind Mudiay because the shooting guard position is loaded with Harris, Barton, and the occasional Beasley minutes; so, to answer the question briefly, he is the backup point guard probably seeing close to 25 minutes per game.
Adam Mares: He probably won’t at the start of the season. I expect that he’ll get spot minutes to start the season, assuming that the rest of the roster is healthy. Emmanuel Mudiay, Jameer Nelson, Gary Harris, and Will Barton will all be ahead of him in the rotation. That means he’ll likely only snag a few minutes here and there at the outset. But like Nikola Jokic last season, Murray will have an opportunity to earn minutes as the season progresses. I suspect he’ll become a larger part of the rotation in the back half of the season, especially if Denver makes a trade deadline deal to open up minutes for him, with Kenneth Faried and Barton being the likeliest trade pieces.
Daniel Lewis: It’s not a comfortable fit at the moment. Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Jameer Nelson, Will Barton, Jamal Murray, and Malik Beasley all will want to eat at the table. That’s six guards who are going to have to share 96 minutes per game. I think the Nuggets coaching staff will be patient with Murray, letting Nelson run the second unit during the first months of the season. If Murray shows that he’s able to do more, they’ll give him more responsibility as the season draws out. I think he’ll have a great second half of the season for Denver, playing a lot of minutes alongside Barton and Beasley. The backcourt competition will look kind of like this in my opinion.
This season, Juan Hernangomez will be .
Nathan Beighle: Misused; he needs time to devlop and five minutes a game will not do that.
Adam Mares: Getting stronger, quicker, and learning the NBA game while mostly riding the pine. He’s a very talented young player but probably doesn’t fit into the rotation since he’s starting out behind Faried and Darrell Arthur. I still think it will be valuable for him to be in the U.S. and learning the speed of the game as opposed to in Europe will he will get more minutes but I’m not sure they will be valuable minutes for his development. Like Gary Harris before him, I think Juancho riding the bench his rookie season will pay off big in his sophomore season.
Daniel Lewis: Able to enjoy the fantastic cuisine in his home country (mmmm, paella). The Nuggets don’t need to bring him over, and it makes more sense financially to wait as long as possible. It’s a long ways ahead to look, but in the 2019-20 season, the Nuggets could see extensions for Gary Harris, Jusuf Nurkic, and Nikola Jokic hit the salary cap. Barring any change in current trajectory, they’ll also be wanting to negotiate an extension with Emmanuel Mudiay. If they can keep Hernangomez off the salary cap until next season, that will help them have as much space as possible for all those extensions to be taken care of while having room to pay free agents. There’s not a rotation spot for him this season — he’ll be battling for minutes with Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, perhaps Nikola Jokic, and possibly Joffrey Lauvergne. If there’s a need this season due to certain events, we have the technology to bring him to the United States within 24 hours.
With so many talented young players in need of experience and development, how can the Nuggets maximize their return on minutes and opportunities?
Nathan Beighle: This is where not having a D-League affiliate really hurts Denver. To get maximum development, Denver must utilize their players in intense situations. Giving veteran’s minutes to attempt to make the playoffs is not the way to go. For max impact, these core players need another year of struggles, Denver must allow them to work through difficult real-game scenarios.
Adam Mares: I’m not sure they really need to do anything special. Everyone on the team will have plenty of time to shine through workouts, practice, and in games. Nikola Jokic was supposed to play very limited minutes last year but he stood out in practice, stood out in small stretches during the early part of the season, and then earned the starting role thanks to injuries. By January, he had earned the permanent starting position at center. The same will be true for all of the players on the roster this season. There’s no need to rush development or sacrifice wins in order to get guys minutes. The Nuggets have established a nice locker room culture and the cream will rise to the top.
Daniel Lewis: They need to try to foster a strong off-the-court relationship. That may mean going and having community outreach events, serving food at a soup kitchen, giving gifts at a local charity, or visiting children at a hospital. They can deepen relationships that will carry over to the court. All those things add up into a team that is close on and off the court, and wants to win together. There could be a lot of frustration this season as roles are ironed out, and if they’re able to have positive relationships despite the competition, it will help the locker room continue to get stronger. It may not be the best return in terms of wins and losses on the schedule, but I think it has potential for the greatest return long term.
Finishing inside
One of the big challenges for the Denver Nuggets’ offense last season was leveraging dribble penetration into efficient scoring opportunities. They finished last in the league, by a significant margin, in field goal percentage on drives on last year. Related, they were in the bottom half of the league in catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game, and tied for dead last in efficiency on spot-up possessions. Because they were inefficient scoring on drives, teams were often willing to defend those options straight-up and keep shooters covered on the perimeter.
Jamal Murray should help a little, he made 65.5 percent of his shots at the rim last season according to Hoop-Math. But the primary culprits last season were Danilo Gallinari and Emmanuel Mudiay. Among the 193 players with at least 100 total drives last season, Gallinari and Mudiay ranked 186th and 179th, respectively, in field goal percentage on drives. However, if we plot those 193 players by total drives and points per drive instead of field goal percentage, we see something interesting.
Mudiay, as expected, ranked towards the bottom — falling in the 10th percentile in scoring efficiency. Despite his poor field goal percentage, Gallinari ranked in the 81st percentile mostly because of his ability to draw fouls. Last season, 29.0 percent of his drives resulted in a drawn foul, the third-highest rate in the league.
There are a few different ramifications for Denver next season here. The first is that Gallinari’s drawn fouls rate is likely unsustainable — the next highest drawn fouls rate by a player with more than 250 drives was Andrew Wiggins’ 23.3 percent. If Gallinari can’t do a better job of finishing on drives next season, his efficiency is likely to suffer.
For Mudiay, solving this issue is probably even more pressing than his need to develop a reliable jumpshot. He has to finish better but he can also help himself by drawing contact and getting himself to the line. His drawn fouls rate on drives — 10.9 percent — was about the same as Cory Joseph or Randy Foye. Much like Derrick Rose early in his career, the first step towards Mudiay reaching his ceiling (and by proxy, the Nuggets reaching theirs) is getting to the line more often.