DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 30

Jan 24, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; General view of Draft Kings logo on an advertising LED screen during the Denver Broncos game against the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos defeated the Patriots 20-18 to advance to the Super Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 30

There are only four games in the afternoon session, and only two of the pitchers are more than $7,000. Can you afford both? Should you afford both? Let’s check out the past stats.

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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Past statistics is only one piece of building a winning lineup.

Reynaldo Lopez was knocked around by the Dodgers in his major league debut on July 19th. He will get a crack at the Giants this time. You should likely leave him alone for this one too.

For you first time players, if you would like $25 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $25 into more!

Next: Pitcher Picks

Jul 1, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Drew Smyly (33) walks back to the dugout against the Detroit Tigers at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Best Bets:

Jake Arrieta ($11,800): Arrieta is 0-2 with a 5.55 ERA in July, but he has handled the Mariners so far in his career. They are hitting just .203 against him in 69 at bats with three homers, seven runs, and 20 strikeouts. The high number of strikeouts should be able to offset the runs he gives up. He is still an elite option in a short slate.

J.A. Happ ($9,600): The Orioles are only hitting .230 against Happ in 126 at bats. They do have six homers, but only ten runs, so he has done a good job of limiting damage. The 38 strikeouts is well above average. Given the struggles of Arrieta, Happ will be a popular plan B this afternoon. The past stats say he should be right on par with Arrieta’s numbers today at $2,200 cheaper.

Honorable Mention:

Nathan Eovaldi ($6,900): Eovaldi has held the Rays to a .234 average in 64 at bats with just three runs, no homers, and an impressive 17 strikeouts. No one in this lineup has hit him well. He should be a great bargain for this price.

Drew Smyly ($6,300): Smyly has dominated the Yankees so far. They are hitting just .167 against him in 72 at bats with one homer (a solo shot by Chase Headley; his only hit in six at bats), two runs scored, and 20 strikeouts. Smyly’s ERA sits at 5.42 on the season, and he gets very little run support if he did happen to pitch well, so that limits his upside, but the past stats make this look good. Can he get back to his old self against the Yankees?

Dark Horses:

Wade Miley ($5,700): The Cubs are hitting just .208 against Miley in 53 at bats with a homer, three RBI, and seven strikeouts. The cautionary tale is that Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Willson Contreras have never faced him. They have all been known to hit left handers hard, especially a soft tosser like Miley in a day game at Wrigley. If the wind is blowing out, duck.

Yovani Gallardo ($5,400): Gallardo didn’t look right in his first few starts of the year. Maybe his stint on the DL did him some good. He has been better since his return from the disabled list on June 18th, but his ERA since then is still in the mid 4’s. Why consider him? The Jays have only hit .237 in 156 at bats, but they have hit five homers and driven in 17. The good news is that one guy did most of the damage. The other was Troy Tulowitzki, who is on the DL. Tulo was 11-27 with a homer and four RBI. Take his stats out, and the Jays’ average dips to .188. And he still has 30 striekouts. Are you feeling lucky?

Next: More Notes For 7-30

Jul 29, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion (10) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Baltimore Orioles in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Robinson Cano ($4,200) is 5-19(.263) with four walks, two doubles, and two RBI against Jake Arrieta. Nelson Cruz ($4,000) is 4-10 with a walk and a solo homer. Seth Smith ($3,400) is 1-4 with a walk and a solo homer. Adam Lind ($3,300) is only 4-23(.174), but he has five walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Arrieta.

Chris Davis ($) is 3-9 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against fellow lefty J.A. Happ. Manny Machado ($) is 5-17(.294) with a double, a triple, and a solo homer against Hap. Matt Wieters ($) only has one hit in five at bats against Happ, but it is a solo homer. Adam Jones ($) is only 7-29(.241), but he has a walk, a double, and a solo homer. He could be worth a look on a short slate.

Dexter Fowler ($4,000) is 6-17(.353) with four walks, a double, and a solo homer against Wade Miley.

Jayson Werth ($3,500) is only 4-18(.222) against Jake Peavy, but he has a walk, a homer, and three RBI. Bryce Harper ($5,000) is 3-5 with four walks against Peavy, but all of the hits are singles and he has no counting stats.

Edwin Encarnacion ($4,900) is 6-17(.353) with five walks, three homers, and six RBI against Yovani Gallardo. Josh Donaldson ($5,400) is4-12 with a walk, a double, and two RBI.

Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!

Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!