DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 31
11 of today’s games are in the main tournament. There are seven pitchers that top the $9,000 mark, and being that it is the day of the trade deadline, there could be several players that are out of lineups. Jonathan Lucroy is all but gone, so Liriano looks better already!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Blake Snell was very good against the Yankees in his major league debut on April 23rd, giving up only one run on two hits and a walk while striking out six in five innings. His is very reasonably priced if you think he can do it again.
Tyler Skaggs dominated the Royals in his first game in more than a year last week, but do you trust him against the Red Sox? Him being at home helps, but I’m still nervous about this one.
Joel De La Cruz gave up four runs on nine hits in six innings to the Phillies back on July 4th, and he has been in the bullpen since then. Which means even if he does manage to pitch well this time, he likely wont be around come the sixth inning. You can do better. MUCH better.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Noah Syndergaard ($12,000): Syndergaard allowed two homers and three runs in seven innings to the Rockies and only struck out three, but that was last year. Syndergaard is 9-5 with a 2.45 ERA. I trust this year’s numbers will be a little better than last year in this game as well.
Corey Kluber ($11,800): The A’s are only hitting .218 against Kluber in 78 at bats. However, he has allowed two homers and nine runs, and the 19 strikeouts is a notch below elite. I think he has a hard time living up to the price tag, but he will still put up solid numbers. And in a day in which the top options don’t have good histories against their opponents, you can do much worse.
Honorable Mention:
Jerad Eickhoff ($8,400): The Braves are hitting .250 against Eickhoff in 76 at bats, but they have just two homers and five RBI. Matt Kemp won’t make his Braves debut until Tuesday, so Eickhoff wont have to worry about him. The down side is that he owns only 12 strikeouts. His lack of strikeouts leaves him little margin for error, but the history supports using him.
Dallas Keuchel ($8,200): Okay, so the Tigers have hit .257 against Keuchel in 109 at bats, but they have only scored nine runs. The bad news is that they only have 17 strikeouts. However, the fact that Keuchel gets to face off against Mike Pelfrey makes a win likely. that puts him in an upper tier.
Andrew Cashner ($6,900): Cashner will make his Marlins debut against a Cardinals team that he gave up just one run to in 5.2 innings while striking out eight on July 21st. The Cardinals are now hitting just .185 against Cashner is 81 at bats with only one homer, five runs, and an impressive 22 strikeouts. His Marlins debut could be a very good one!
Dark Horses:
Francisco Liriano ($6,800): Liriano struck out a season high 13 against the Brewers ten days ago. When you add the fact that Braun and Lucroy may be traded, that could make a weak lineup absolutely punchless. If a trade goes down before this game starts, Liriano could produce big numbers for his price.
Lucas Harrell ($5,500): Speaking of debuts, Harrell will be making his Rangers debut against a Royals team that is hitting just .182 against him in 33 at bats with only two extra base hits (both doubles) and one run. He has only struck out six, but you can’t complain about that for this price. Harrell could have a very nice debut, especially with Dillon Gee set to oppose him.
Sonny Gray ($4,800): Based on stats alone, Gray is a no-brainer. The Indians are hitting a pathetic .173 against him in 75 at bats with just two extra base hits (both Michael Brantley doubles, and he is on the DL) and only one run. In 75 at bats! They have also struck out a staggering 28 times. Gray has had a rough year, but wow, these numbers are very hard to ignore.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Aaron Sanchez has been mostly brilliant this year, but not against the Orioles. If they really are concerned about his innings, they should sit him today because the Orioles have six homers against him in just 92 at bats. Pedro Alvarez ($2,800) is 2-4 with two walks and a solo home run. Chris Davis ($3,800) is 6-12 with four walks, a double, three homers, and four RBI. Manny Machado ($4,500) is 5-15 with a walk, two doubles, and two RBI against Sanchez. Matt Wieters ($2,600) is 1-3 with a solo homer. Adam Jones ($3,800) is only 2-14(.143), but he has four walks and a solo homer off Sanchez.
Chris Tillman has given up a ridiculous 19 home runs to the Blue Jays in 254 at bats. You know there are some good stacks in there! Jose Bautista ($3,900) is 11-42(.262) with five walks, three doubles, three homers, and seven RBI. Josh Donaldson ($4,800) is 8-29(.276) with a walk, four doubles, a homer, and seven driven in. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,300) is 16-53(.302) with three doubles, four walks, three homers, and four RBI. Kevin Pillar ($2,900) is 7-20(.350) with a double, three homers, and five RBI. Michael Saunders ($3,800) is 5-16(.313)with two walks, a double, two homes and three RBI. Russell Martin ($2,700) is 5-11(.455) with four walks, two doubles, and a RBI. Devon Travis ($3,600) is 3-6 wtih a walk, two doubles, and six RBI against Tillman. Troy Tulowitzki ($3,800) is 2-7 with two homers and four RBI. Melvin Upton, Jr ($3,400) is no stranger to Tillman either. He is 3-14 with three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI from his days with the Rays. You can’t afford all of these guys, but I would definitely use at least two of them.
Steve Pearce ($3,000) is 5-12 with a double and a solo homer off of Michael Pineda. Corey Dickerson ($3,400) is 2-5 with a homer and three RBI. Logan Forsythe ($3,500) is 4-6 with a double against Pineda. Evan Longoria ($3,900) is only 5-24(.208), but he has three RBI, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Pineda. Brad Miller ($3,800) is 4-10 with two walks, two doubles, a triple, and a RBI. Steven Souza Jr. ($2,700) is 6-14 with a double, three homers and six RBI against Pineda already.
Justin Morneau ($3,100) is 7-29(.241) with four walks, a double, four homers, and ten RBI against Ervin Santana. Melky Cabrera ($3,500) is 8-29(.276) with three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Adam Eaton ($4,100) is 4-10 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Santana. Todd Frazier ($4,000) is only 2-9, but he has a walk, a double, and a solo homer. Avisail Garcia ($2,700) is 5-10 with a double and a solo homer as well. Dioner Navarro ($2,400) is 5-14(.357) with two walks, three doubles, and three RBI. Now for the caveats. Santana has a 2.02 ERA since June 14, and there is a good chance that Santana could be dealt before the trade deadline, which means he could be scratched with very little notice. However, I’m guessing that whomever the Twins replace Santana with could get lit up by the White Sox as well.
Next: More Notes For 7-31
Nolan Arenado ($3,800) and DJ LeMahieu ($3,200) both took Noah Syndergaard deep in their meeting last year. Can they do it again?
Albert Pujols ($3,500) is 3-6 with three walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Steven Wright. Mike Trout ($4,700) is only 2-8, but he has a walk, a double, and a solo homer against Wright.
Travis d’Arnaud ($2,700) is likely staying a Met, which is good news for them. He is 1-2 with a three run homer against Chad Bettis.
Hanley Ramirez ($4,400) is 2-3 with two walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Tyler Skaggs.
Colby Rasmus ($4,100) is 4-10 with two walks, a homer, and three RBI against Mike Pelfrey.
Brian Dozier ($3,900) is 2-9 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Carlos Rodon. Robbie Grossman ($3,300) is 1-2 with a walk and a solo homer. Miguel Sano ($3,800) is 1-3 with three walks and a solo homer against Rodon.
Andrew McCutchen ($4,400) is 5-17(.294) against Matt Garza with four walks, a homer, and two RBI. David Freese ($3,700) is 3-15 with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Garza. Matt Joyce ($4,300) is 4-10 with a double, a homer, and four RBI against Garza.
Freddie Freeman ($4,400) is 5-12 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer against Jerad Eickhoff. Nick Markakis ($3,700) is 3-10 with two walks and two RBI.
Ian Desmond ($4,700) is 12-43(.279) with four walks, a double, three homers, and five RBI against Dillon Gee from their days in the N.L. East.
Ian Kinsler ($4,500) is 8-26(.308) with two walks, a homer, and two RBI against Dallas Keuchel. Victor Martinez ($3,400) is 4-12 with a homer and two RBI.
Marcus Semien ($2,800) is only 2-9 against Corey Kluber, but he has a double and a solo home run. Stephen Vogt ($3,100) is 1-2 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Kluber.
Dee Gordon ($3,900) is back, and he is 8-15(.533) with a double and a RBI against Carlos Martinez. And we all know what kind of damage he can do when he is on base. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,000) is 1-2 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Martinez.
Ryan Braun ($5,100) is 8-27(.296) with eight walks, a homer, and five RBI against Francisco Liriano in his career. That said, he is on the trade block, and may not make it into the lineup. Hernan Perez ($4,000) is 4-10 with a double, a triple, and three RBI though.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!