DraftKings Early MLB Picks For August 4
There are five games today, which makes the early slate a little more busy that most Thursday’s. There are no aces going, so who are the best bets? Let’s check out the past stats to try and find an edge!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
Mike Clevinger has never faced the Twins, and he probably doesn’t want to start now with what they have done to his team so far in this series. His 7.71 ERA should make you stay away even if the last three days isn’t proof enough.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bet:
Vincent Velasquez ($8,700): Velasquez has never faced the Giants. In his last eight starts, he has only allowed 13 runs. He has failed to strike out five batters in just one of those. Velasquez remains a strong play against this afternoon, especially with a short slate.
Honorable Mention:
Matt Moore ($8,400): Matt Moore’s National League debut is a favorable one. The current Phillies are 4-16 with two RBI against him with only two strikeouts, and a win could be hard to come by against Velasquez, but those stats coupled with his July performance have me trusting him here.
Dark Horse:
Hector Santiago ($6,400): Okay, I will admit that there aren’t a lot of good options this afternoon. Santiago is only on here because Cleveland is starting a guy who has been pounded, and the Twins offense is tearing the cover off the ball at Progressive Field this series. Of course, the 28 strikeouts of 100 batters helps mitigate the damage, but he has also allowed 28 hits. If you stack Indians and start Santiago, I wont judge.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
The Tigers are hitting .324 against Jose Quintana in 244 at bats, so you know there are some stack options here. Mike Aviles ($2,300) is 10-28(.357) with a walk and a RBI, but all of the hits are singles. Miguel Cabrera ($4,400) is 13-37(.351) with five walks, five doubles, a homer and six driven in. Surprisingly, that is the only homer the team has against Quintana. Nick Castellanos ($3,000) is 9-29(.310) with a walk and three RBI. Jose Iglesias ($2,900) is once again a good low priced option. He is 5-16(.313) with two doubles and a RBI against Quintana. Ian Kinsler ($3,800) is 12-39(.308) with a walk, two doubles, and two RBI. Victor Martinez ($2,800) is 15-36(.417) with two doubles and three RBI. Justin Upton ($4,000) is 3-8 with a walk, a double, and two driven in. J.D. Martinez ($4,000) is 6-22(.273) with three walks, a triple, and two RBI. There are plenty of options here!
Brandon Finnegan‘s early numbers against the Cardinals are not very good. In only 65 at bats, the Cards have homered five times. One each by Brandon Moss ($4,500). Stephen Piscotty ($4,900), and Randal Grichuk ($3,700). The other two are from Matt Carpenter in only nine at bats. Now the good news: Carpenter is on the disabled list.
Lorenzo Cain ($4,000) is 4-10 with a walk, a homer, and four RBI against Drew Smyly. Jarrod Dyson ($3,500), despite being left handed, it 3-7 with two RBI. Eric Hosmer ($3,500) bucks the trend as well. He is 7-22(.318) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI off Smyly.
Next: More Notes For 8-4
Brad Miller ($4,000) is 3-4 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Ian Kennedy. At least Kennedy doesn’t have to face Logan Morrison, who is 6-16(.375) with two walks, two triples, two homers, and three RBI off of him.
Cesar Hernandez ($3,800) is 2-3 with a double, a triple, and two RBI against Matt Moore.
Dioner Navarro ($2,500) is 1-2 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI against Jordan Zimmerman. Jose Abreu ($3,500) is 2-5 with a double and two RBI. Tim Anderson ($3,500) is 2-4 with two doubles against Zimmerman.
Jason Kipnis ($4,300) is 6-18 with two walks, a double, and three RBI against Hector Santiago. Jose Ramirez ($3,600) is 2-3 with a walk, a homer, and two driven in. Mike Napoli ($4,800) is only 3-13(.231), but he has eight walks, a homer, and five RBI against Santiago.
Adam Duvall ($4,700) is 3-6 with two homers and four RBI against Mike Leake. Billy Hamilton ($4,700) is a perfect 2-2 with a single and a solo homer.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!